003
FXUS61 KOKX 251759
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
159 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will remain across the area today, while a cold
front approaches from the north and east. The cold front will
slowly sag south and west through the area tonight and into the
Mid Atlantic region through Friday. The front will return north as
a warm front Friday night, then meander nearby Saturday and
Sunday before lifting farther north into Monday. A cold front
will approach on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A heat advisory remains in effect through 7 PM. Bumped temps up
slightly, with Newark and JFK both having a shot at reaching
100 again late this afternoon.

This will be the last day of the heat wave as a confluent upper
flow across eastern Canada and into the Northeast allows high
pressure to build to the north. This will allow a cold front
to approach from the north today and sag south across the area
tonight. The anomalously warm upper ridge across the area will
gradually be suppressed south during this time, but not before
another potential record breaking day. High temps look to be
slightly less hot than those of yesterday, mid 90s to near 100
away from the immediate shoreline. This combined with dew
points in the upper 60s to around 70 will produce heat index
values from about 97 to 104.

With the weakening upper ridge, cold front dropping in from the
north, and weak impulses at the southern edge of the westerlies,
widely scattered to scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon into this evening. In addition, CAM`s show
possible convection along the eastern flank of the cold front
which backs in from the NE this evening. Instability will be
greatest across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior NE NJ, but
wind shear is weak and mid level lapse rates are less than 6C.
This should keep the severe weather threat to the southwest.

A chance for showers and isolated tstms will continue overnight
as weak impulses ride long the frontal boundary from the west
and weak warm advection continues as cooler maritime air
undercuts the warmer westerlies aloft. Brief downpours will be
possible late tonight, especially across the NYC metro area and
Long Island where elevated instability will be greatest.
However, the low level air mass will continue to stabilize
overnight in a NE-E flow. It will be noticeably cooler tonight,
but still several degrees above normal, with lows in the upper
60s/lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Latest CAM`s show potential for some locally heavy showers and
isolates tstms Thu morning, with the majority of the guidance
suggesting the axis of this rainfall more likely to lie across
the NYC metro area and Long Island as opposed to the lower
Hudson Valley and S CT.

Thereafter, convective complexes working in from the Ohio Valley
will likely dissipate, with the better chances for rain being to
the north and west of NYC. Rainfall amounts will generally be on
the light side.

Highs in the mid 70s to around 80 on Thursday will fall to the
lower 70s on Friday. The latter is about 10 degrees below
normal. Due to the cloud cover, lows will be near or slightly
below normal in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Stubborn boundary looks to linger nearby this weekend and early next
week, keeping conditions unsettled.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible at times,
particularly Friday night through Saturday night as shortwave passes
north, though it doesn`t appear to be a washout, nor a great severe
concern. Brief high pressure behind the wave could allow a
relatively quiet Sunday, before digging trough across the Upper
Great Lakes slides east, returning the boundary from the south as a
warm front early next week. An attendant cold front looks to follow
by Tuesday, maintaining chances for additional showers and
thunderstorms.

Temperatures start much more seasonable for late June, afternoon
highs on Saturday into the upper 70s and lower 80s, before warming
into the mid to upper 80s early next week. With dew pts progged into
the 60s and low 70s, heat indices could approach mid 90s, especially
Monday and Tuesday next week

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains in control this afternoon. A cold front
then moves through the terminals late this evening, slowly
pushing south through Thursday.

Mainly VFR.

NW winds around 10kt this afternoon with gusts 15-19kt at the
NYC metro terminals. Winds veer N-NE late this evening, then
more NE-E for Thursday.

Isolated showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out into this
evening, but not enough probability and coverage to include in
TAFs at this time. Better chance toward the Thursday morning
push, so have included PROB30 for this potential.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Only moderate confidence that sea breeze crosses KJFK. The sea
breeze may pass through, then thereafter shift back south
through the terminal and cause winds to shift back W to NW late
this afternoon/early evening.

Gusts this afternoon may be only occasional, and will likely end
earlier than indicated for KLGA/KEWR/KTEB.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday PM: VFR.

Friday - Sunday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of showers.

Monday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With the absence of a steep pressure gradient, conditions on
the waters are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds now
through the weekend. However, a strengthening easterly flow on
the ocean waters will produce gusts up to 20 kt with seas
building to around 4 ft Thursday night into Friday, possibly as
high as 5 ft Friday night east of Moriches Inlet.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic impacts expected during this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is potential for minor coastal flooding during the
nighttime high tide cycles this week with a new moon. Isolated
minor coastal flooding of the most vulnerable areas of the South
Shore Bays and western Long Island Sound possible during high
tide this evening. Potentially more widespread minor coastal
flooding Thursday Friday evenings with easterly flow developing.
A Coastal Flood Statement or Advisory may be needed during this
period.

There is low risk of rip currents today at the ocean beaches
with 1 to 2 ft breakers in the surf zone. However, the risk
increases to moderate on Thursday due to a building easterly
swell and 2 ft breakers in the surf zone.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Wednesday`s Record Highs (June 25):
EWR  100 / 1943
BDR   94 / 1952
NYC   99 / 1943, 1952
LGA   99 / 1943, 1952
JFK   98 / 1952
ISP   95 / 2025 (was 92 / 2003)

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009>012.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DR/DW
NEAR TERM...BG/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BG/DR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...