774
FXUS61 KOKX 031921
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
321 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will result in another cool night with light
winds and mostly clear skies (minus haze/smoke aloft from
western Canadian fires). Lows will generally be 3 to 5 degrees
below normal, but even cooler across locations that radiate
well, in particular the Pine Barrens region of Long Island.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper trough will gradually lift out of eastern Canada this
period, while heights/ridging build northward along the eastern
seaboard. This will allow for warmer conditions and a bit of a
bump in humidity. In addition, smoke from Canadian wildfires,
most pronounced across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada will
settle south tonight and into the area Monday (per the 12Z
HRRR). Both vertically integrated smoke and near surface smoke
concentrations will increase late tonight into Monday afternoon.
Model visibilities are not showing much in the way of visibility
restrictions. For the time, will mention haze across the area
Monday. This will be closely monitored and would not be surprised
if state DECs issues an air quality alerts for Monday. Beyond
Monday, the smoke may lift back to the north due to the
aforementioned height rises along the east coast.

As for temperatures, highs both Monday and Tuesday will be in
the 80s, a few degrees above normal. There may even be a spotty
90 across metro NJ. Lows will be in 60s to around 70, highest
across the NYC metro. An anticipated increase in cloud cover
Tuesday night into Wednesday and an easterly flow (due to
strengthening high pressure to the north), will keep highs a
few degrees cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

***Key Points***

The NBM was largely followed with this update with no major changes.

Key Points:

* Dry conditions are expected through next weekend with high
  pressure in control

* Seasonable temperatures through the period with highs in the 80s.
  Humidity levels will creep up a bit, but are not expected to be
  excessive during this time frame.

A decent stretch of sensible weather is in store for the extended as
global models and their respective ensembles advertise a building
upper ridge and high pressure at the surface much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region through Monday.

VFR. Potential for MVFR vsbys with smoke on Monday, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF. Vsby may
lower to MVFR, but likely not below that. If smoke does occur,
terminals that get a seabreeze would likely improve back to VFR.

Flow will be light and VRB away from the coast, with a seabreeze
along the coast today. Light and VRB everywhere tonight. Winds
on Monday will be similar to today.


     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind shift/sea breeze timing may be off by an hour or so today
and Monday.

Uncertainty with how smoke will affect vsby on Monday, if at all.
Potential for vsby to lower to MVFR, but likely not below that.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Afternoon: Potential for MVFR vsby in smoke.

Tuesday-Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are on tap through Wednesday. An easterly
swell will gradually build through the period with seas
building to around 4 ft on Wednesday and 5 ft Wednesday night.
Seas are forecast to remain around 5 ft through Friday, but this
will depend on the magnitude and location of low pressure well
off the Mid Atlantic coast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk will be low for ocean beaches today and
Monday. Winds are going to be quite light through the forecast
period with wind speeds of mostly under 10 mph. Initially winds
are offshore but then become more onshore in the afternoon.
Ocean waves are expected to generally be around 1 to 2 ft.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//