355
FXUS61 KOKX 022347
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
747 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to shift offshore and weaken tonight. A
series of fronts will move through the region Thursday night
through Sunday. High pressure builds in from the west Sunday and
lingers into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As high pressure shifts farther offshore and weakens tonight, a very
light return flow likely sets up. The big forecast challenge tonight
is if low stratus/fog develops and if so how that will affect
temperatures. As always the NAM is the most aggressive and covers
the whole area while other guidance is dry. Leaning away from the
NAM for now given the weaker return flow signal. Some guidance even
has winds flipping back to the N or NE for a short period tonight
given the very weak pressure gradient.

However, agree with some stratus creeping into Long Island and
eastern CT like the MET MOS guidance has. Because of this,
bumped sky cover up across Long Island for tonight and also
bumped temps up a few degrees in the spots that were lower due
to expected radiational cooling. Locations across the interior
will likely be able to get lower tonight, upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The area remains under troughing aloft through the short term,
with the first of a few shortwaves swinging through early
Friday. At the surface an associated cold front will move
through early Friday, draping down from low pressure centered
over Ontario.

Ahead of the aforementioned cold front, dry and mostly sunny
conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday. As the front passes
through however, showers and thunderstorms are possible. The most
likely timing for this will be late Thursday night into early Friday
morning. Confidence is thunder is very low at this time given the
time of day and weak CAPE profile. Held on to slight chance for now.
While there could be some localized downpours, rainfall rates will
likely not be has high as we have seen with past events this
summer. There does not appear to be any connection with tropical
moisture offshore and pwats look to peak around 1.5-1.7 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term period starts with the region under the SE peripheral
influence of an anomalously deep (3-4 std) closed upper low across
Ontario into the upper Great lakes, and it associated longwave
trough. The trough will slowly lift NE into Canada through the
weekend with a transition to a zonal upper flow to start the week,
and then heading into midweek western Atlantic ridging builds up the
east coast ahead of the remnant upper low from Lorena deepening over
the Central US.

At the surface, an associated cold front approaches the region on
Saturday, crossing Sat evening, with a secondary cold frontal
passage later Sunday. Slightly above seasonable temps on Saturday
with S/SW flow ahead of approaching cold front. The deep southerly
flow between offshore ridging and troughing to the NW will allow a
bit of southern moisture to work into the area ahead of front,
developing a high shear-low CAPE environment. Low predictability
this far out on timing of shortwave energy into the area, but
potential for some thunderstorm activity along the front/pre-frontal
trough Sat aft/eve, although early indication that most activity
with the front could be post-frontal and more-so to the NW of the
region with best forcing displaced well NW of the region.

The NW displacement of the trough will make for a slow progress of
the cold front through the region Sat Night into Sunday morning,
likely not cleanly pressing through until Sun aft with trough axis
passage and secondary cold front. This could set off a few showers
on Sunday as well. Temps falling to near or slightly below
seasonable on Sunday.

In the wake of secondary passage, moderating Canadian surface high
pressure builds in from the west early next week, bringing slightly
below seasonable temps and dry conditions.

No significant changes for the long term, so the NBM was closely
followed.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region through the TAF period.

SE winds less than 10 kt will become light and variable
overnight for most terminals, except perhaps KJFK and KLGA.

Prevailing VFR conditions through Wednesday afternoon. There is
a low to moderate chance of low stratus and patchy fog to
develop tonight with an onshore flow, but confidence remains
low. The best chances are across the Lower Hudson Valley,
southeast CT and central Long Island.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of low stratus and patchy fog tonight and into
early Wednesday morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR during the day with S gusts 20-25kt in the afternoon.
MVFR or lower possible in showers and isolated thunderstorms at
night.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible in any showers and isolated
thunderstorms mainly in the morning. S gusts 20-25kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR in showers.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through early
Thursday. There is then potential for some 25 knot gusts ahead of an
approaching cold front Thursday night. There will then likely be a
lull in the gusts until Friday afternoon where there is a more
widespread chance of 25 knot gusts.

Marginal SCA gusts possible and SCA ocean seas into likely Fri
Night into Sat in S/SW flow ahead of approaching cold front.
Winds will likely subside Sat aft into eve and then shift NW Sat
Night, with seas falling below SCA.

Sub-SCA conditions likely Sun (outside of 20 kt NW gusts in wake of
secondary cold frontal passage Sun aft/eve) into Mon as high
pressure builds into the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain across the area overnight, moving
offshore on Wednesday ahead of an approaching frontal system on
Thursday. Dry conditions continue across the region, with KBDI
values running 200 to 500 across the CWA.

SE to S winds of 5 to 10 Wed morning into afternoon. Occasional
higher gusts possible in the afternoon. Min RH values fall into
the 30 to 40 percent range Wednesday afternoon across the interior
and 40 to 50 percent range for the coast.

SE winds increase to 10 to 20 mph with gusts 20 to 25 mph, highest
along the coast, on Thursday, with min RH values in the 50 to 60
percent range.

Next chance of rain, potentially wetting rain, is Thursday
evening, with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
At this time there are no hydrologic concerns through early next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a borderline low-moderate rip current risk Wednesday
from residual ESE swells of 3 ft at 8 seconds, likely lowering
to a low risk on Thursday as easterly swells continue to fall
to 2 ft.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT/NV
NEAR TERM...JT/NV
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JT/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JT/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...