239
FXUS61 KOKX 291140
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
740 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will move across the area this
afternoon into early this evening. High pressure returns this
weekend and will remain in control through the middle of next
week. A frontal system then approaches to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warm advection and MUCAPES of 500-1000 J/KG have produced low-
topped convection this morning across eastern LI and SE CT. The
activity has dissipated in coverage the last hour. However,
this will be the main area of focus for the remainder of today.

An upper low over southeast Canada, part of a longwave trough
across eastern North America, will send a cold front across the
area this afternoon into early this evening. The front will be
preceded by a pre- frontal trough. The challenge to the forecast
today is the amount of drying in the low-levels in a deep-
layered SW flow. The best moisture and instability will reside
across eastern LI and SE CT, lessening to the west. In fact, dry
air may be enough of a limiting factor to keep the Lower Hudson
Valley, NE NJ, and NYC mainly dry. MLCAPE values will likely be
low across these areas with dew points in the lower 50s and
perhaps even lower. While across eastern LI and SE CT, SPC HREF
MUCAPE values are 500-1000 J/KG. Not expecting any severe
storms. Better organization should be to the north and east of
the area across eastern New England. HREF mean QPF showing some
pockets of heavier rain across SE CT, in particular across New
London, where there is a 30% probability of an inch/3hr. CAMs
show best timing to be in the late morning/early afternoon with
the pre- frontal trough with another chance with the cold front
late afternoon/early evening. However, the environment may be
too stable by the time the cold front arrives due to the
aforementioned dry air. Thus, expect widely scattered showers,
possibly thunder, across western areas, with scattered to
numerous coverage far east. By no means will this be a washout
with the emphasis on small windows of time for the convection.

Highs today will remain a few degrees below normal in the mid
70s to around 80.

Behind the front this evening, skies will become mostly clear
with the arrival of cooler air on a NW flow. Lows tonight will
be as much as 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
For the weekend, the upper low slowly departs to the northeast
with a large area of high pressure expanding from the upper
Midwest to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states. Clear skies
and low humidity will be accompanied by temperatures several
degrees below normal. NBM was followed for daytime highs, with
the NBM 25th percentile blended in across the cooler Pine
Barrens region of LI for overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The NBM/previous forecast was followed with no changes.

Key Points:

* High pressure will remain over the region Monday through
  Wednesday, with dry and cool conditions. Temperatures will be more
  like mid-September.

* Chance for precipitation returns on Thursday and Friday as an
  upper level trough and associated cold front approach and move
  into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak trough moves across the terminals this morning, followed
by a cold front later in the day.

Light winds become SW 10-12kt this morning and then W inland by
late morning or afternoon, with S-SW sea breeze development
along the coast. Will continue to mention the chance of
showers and/or tstms to KBDR/KGON during the late morning and
afternoon. Cannot rule out showers and possible tstms with fropa
after about 20Z. Chances for showers NYC and west remain too
low to include in the TAF.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Can`t entirely rule out a late day shower or tstm with fropa
after 20Z Fri.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday through Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A SW flow on the waters will gradually weaken this morning with
a few gusts to around 20 kt early. Seas on the ocean will
initially be around 4 ft, but will be on the downswing. High
pressure will then build across the waters following a cold
frontal passage this evening and remain into early next week.
Conditions will remain below SCA levels during this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk of rip currents will start the day with an
incoming wind wave of 3-4 ft at 5-6 seconds. However, diminishing
waves and winds will likely result in a decreasing threat this
afternoon, especially across NYC, southern Nassau County, and
Southwestern Suffolk beaches.

There will be a low risk at the ocean beaches Saturday with 1-2
ft waves at 5-6 seconds.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/DW
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...