Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
936
FNUS51 KOKX 120628
FWFOKX
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southeastern New York
Northern New Jersey and Southern CT
National Weather Service New York NY
228 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.DISCUSSION...
Wet and windy conditions expected today and Monday. Rain will
be light to moderate with totals after 48 hours ranging from 0.75
inches in the Lower Hudson Valley to close to 3 inches for eastern
Long Island. Winds will peak this evening through early Monday. At
the coast expect a E/NE flow sustained at 20 to 30 mph with gusts
up to 45 to 50 mph. Gusts up to 60 mph are expected for eastern
Suffolk county. Min RH values likely never drop below 75 percent.
NYZ212-130630-
New York City-
228 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Today Tonight Columbus Day
Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Precip Type Rain Rain Tstms
Chance Precip (%) 80 90 80
Chance of Thunder (%) 0 0 20
Temp (24h trend) 63 (-5) 55 (-2) 62
RH % (24h trend) 73 (+7) 98 (+12) 87
Wind 20ft/early(mph) NE 16-20 G32 NE 21-25 G40 NE 19-23 G37
Wind 20ft/late(mph) NE 18-22 G37 NE 21-25 G40 NE 18-22 G34
Precip Amount 0.35 0.55 0.45
Precip Duration 7 12 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl/msl)2920 1810 2360
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 41 NE 46 NE 46
Vent Rate (kt-ft) 105120 72400 94400
Max ADI Early 95 Good 98 Good 90 Good
Max ADI Late 106 Very Good69 Good 84 Good
Remarks...None.
$$
NYZ213-130630-
Long Island-
228 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Today Tonight Columbus Day
Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Precip Type Rain Tstms Tstms
Chance Precip (%) 90 90 80
Chance of Thunder (%) 0 20 20
Temp (24h trend) 64 (-4) 55 (-2) 65
RH % (24h trend) 75 (+9) 100 (+10) 85
Wind 20ft/early(mph) NE 18-22 G36 NE 24-28 G51 NE 24-28 G49
Wind 20ft/late(mph) NE 21-25 G44 NE 26-30 G51 NE 21-25 G42
Precip Amount 0.54 0.72 0.52
Precip Duration 8 12 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl/msl)3150 410 2300
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 55 NE 55 NE 49
Vent Rate (kt-ft) 151200 19680 98900
Max ADI Early 96 Good 115 Very Good100 Good
Max ADI Late 126 Very Good71 Good 98 Good
Remarks...None.
$$
NYZ211-130630-
Lower Hudson Valley-
228 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Today Tonight Columbus Day
Cloud Cover Mcldy Cloudy Cloudy
Precip Type Rain Rain Rain
Chance Precip (%) 70 90 80
Chance of Thunder (%) 0 0 0
Temp (24h trend) 61 (-5) 47 (-2) 57
RH % (24h trend) 76 (+8) 100 (+1) 88
Wind 20ft/early(mph) NE 9-13 G26 NE 13-17 G33 NE 14-18 G32
Wind 20ft/late(mph) NE 11-15 G31 NE 14-18 G33 NE 12-16 G31
Precip Amount 0.17 0.45 0.36
Precip Duration 4 11 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl/msl)3060 1390 2480
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 38 NE 37 NE 35
Vent Rate (kt-ft) 100980 44480 74400
Max ADI Early 61 Good 77 Good 68 Good
Max ADI Late 89 Good 46 Gen Good 69 Good
Remarks...None.
$$
NJZ002-130630-
Western Passaic-
228 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Today Tonight Columbus Day
Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Mcldy
Precip Type Rain Rain Rain
Chance Precip (%) 70 90 80
Chance of Thunder (%) 0 0 0
Temp (24h trend) 60 (-5) 49 (0) 56
RH % (24h trend) 79 (+8) 100 (0) 92
Wind 20ft/early(mph) NE 7-11 G23 NE 11-15 G29 NE 12-16 G30
Wind 20ft/late(mph) NE 9-13 G26 NE 13-17 G30 NE 10-14 G27
Precip Amount 0.19 0.50 0.40
Precip Duration 4 10 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl/msl)2940 1260 2170
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 37 NE 38 NE 35
Vent Rate (kt-ft) 94080 41580 65100
Max ADI Early 54 Gen Good 74 Good 64 Good
Max ADI Late 84 Good 45 Gen Good 60 Gen Good
Remarks...None.
$$
NJZ004-130630-
Eastern Passaic-
228 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Today Tonight Columbus Day
Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Precip Type Rain Rain Rain
Chance Precip (%) 70 90 80
Chance of Thunder (%) 0 0 0
Temp (24h trend) 61 (-7) 52 (-1) 59
RH % (24h trend) 77 (+9) 100 (+6) 90
Wind 20ft/early(mph) NE 9-13 G26 NE 14-18 G32 NE 14-18 G31
Wind 20ft/late(mph) NE 11-15 G30 NE 14-18 G32 NE 12-16 G30
Precip Amount 0.25 0.50 0.36
Precip Duration 6 11 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl/msl)2750 1840 2290
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 43 NE 39 NE 38
Vent Rate (kt-ft) 101750 62560 75570
Max ADI Early 68 Good 84 Good 74 Good
Max ADI Late 94 Good 60 Gen Good 76 Good
Remarks...None.
$$
NJZ103-130630-
Western Bergen-
228 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Today Tonight Columbus Day
Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Precip Type Rain Rain Rain
Chance Precip (%) 70 90 80
Chance of Thunder (%) 0 0 0
Temp (24h trend) 61 (-6) 51 (-1) 59
RH % (24h trend) 77 (+10) 100 (+3) 90
Wind 20ft/early(mph) NE 8-12 G24 NE 12-16 G31 NE 13-17 G30
Wind 20ft/late(mph) NE 10-14 G29 NE 14-18 G32 NE 11-15 G29
Precip Amount 0.23 0.50 0.36
Precip Duration 6 11 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl/msl)2900 1490 2340
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 40 NE 43 NE 37
Vent Rate (kt-ft) 101500 55130 74880
Max ADI Early 62 Good 78 Good 72 Good
Max ADI Late 91 Good 53 Gen Good 72 Good
Remarks...None.
$$
NJZ104-130630-
Eastern Bergen-
228 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Today Tonight Columbus Day
Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Precip Type Rain Rain Rain
Chance Precip (%) 70 90 80
Chance of Thunder (%) 0 0 0
Temp (24h trend) 61 (-7) 53 (-2) 60
RH % (24h trend) 74 (+6) 100 (+10) 88
Wind 20ft/early(mph) NE 10-14 G27 NE 14-18 G34 NE 15-19 G33
Wind 20ft/late(mph) NE 12-16 G32 NE 16-20 G34 NE 13-17 G31
Precip Amount 0.26 0.49 0.37
Precip Duration 6 11 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl/msl)2750 1790 2330
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 44 NE 40 NE 37
Vent Rate (kt-ft) 104500 62650 74560
Max ADI Early 71 Good 88 Good 77 Good
Max ADI Late 100 Good 64 Good 75 Good
Remarks...None.
$$
NJZ105-130630-
Western Essex-
228 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Today Tonight Columbus Day
Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Precip Type Rain Rain Rain
Chance Precip (%) 70 90 80
Chance of Thunder (%) 0 0 0
Temp (24h trend) 61 (-6) 52 (-1) 59
RH % (24h trend) 75 (+5) 100 (+8) 88
Wind 20ft/early(mph) NE 10-14 G27 NE 15-19 G34 NE 15-19 G31
Wind 20ft/late(mph) NE 12-16 G30 NE 16-20 G33 NE 13-17 G30
Precip Amount 0.26 0.49 0.40
Precip Duration 6 11 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl/msl)2710 1770 2220
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 44 NE 40 NE 38
Vent Rate (kt-ft) 102980 61950 73260
Max ADI Early 71 Good 85 Good 74 Good
Max ADI Late 92 Good 65 Good 76 Good
Remarks...None.
$$
NJZ106-130630-
Eastern Essex-
228 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Today Tonight Columbus Day
Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Precip Type Rain Rain Rain
Chance Precip (%) 80 90 80
Chance of Thunder (%) 0 0 0
Temp (24h trend) 62 (-6) 54 (-2) 60
RH % (24h trend) 75 (+11) 96 (+9) 86
Wind 20ft/early(mph) NE 12-16 G29 NE 17-21 G35 NE 16-20 G32
Wind 20ft/late(mph) NE 14-18 G33 NE 18-22 G35 NE 14-18 G30
Precip Amount 0.30 0.50 0.41
Precip Duration 7 11 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl/msl)2730 2120 2300
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 41 NE 43 NE 39
Vent Rate (kt-ft) 98280 78440 78200
Max ADI Early 82 Good 93 Good 83 Good
Max ADI Late 104 Very Good67 Good 80 Good
Remarks...None.
$$
NJZ107-130630-
Western Union-
228 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Today Tonight Columbus Day
Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Precip Type Rain Rain Rain
Chance Precip (%) 80 90 80
Chance of Thunder (%) 0 0 0
Temp (24h trend) 62 (-6) 52 (-2) 60
RH % (24h trend) 76 (+5) 100 (+9) 89
Wind 20ft/early(mph) NE 11-15 G27 NE 16-20 G33 NE 15-19 G31
Wind 20ft/late(mph) NE 13-17 G31 NE 16-20 G32 NE 13-17 G29
Precip Amount 0.26 0.47 0.41
Precip Duration 7 11 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl/msl)2670 1680 2170
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 40 NE 40 NE 39
Vent Rate (kt-ft) 93450 58800 73780
Max ADI Early 77 Good 89 Good 75 Good
Max ADI Late 99 Good 67 Good 77 Good
Remarks...None.
$$
NJZ108-130630-
Eastern Union-
228 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Today Tonight Columbus Day
Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Precip Type Rain Rain Rain
Chance Precip (%) 80 90 80
Chance of Thunder (%) 0 0 0
Temp (24h trend) 63 (-5) 55 (-1) 61
RH % (24h trend) 72 (+10) 96 (+10) 83
Wind 20ft/early(mph) NE 12-16 G30 NE 18-22 G35 NE 16-20 G32
Wind 20ft/late(mph) NE 14-18 G34 NE 18-22 G35 NE 14-18 G31
Precip Amount 0.32 0.54 0.49
Precip Duration 7 11 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl/msl)2860 2030 2220
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 41 NE 43 NE 40
Vent Rate (kt-ft) 102960 75110 77700
Max ADI Early 88 Good 94 Good 83 Good
Max ADI Late 106 Very Good68 Good 80 Good
Remarks...None.
$$
NJZ006-130630-
Hudson-
228 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Today Tonight Columbus Day
Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Precip Type Rain Rain Rain
Chance Precip (%) 80 90 80
Chance of Thunder (%) 0 0 0
Temp (24h trend) 62 (-6) 55 (-2) 61
RH % (24h trend) 70 (+7) 96 (+11) 83
Wind 20ft/early(mph) NE 14-18 G31 NE 18-22 G38 NE 18-22 G35
Wind 20ft/late(mph) NE 16-20 G35 NE 19-23 G38 NE 16-20 G33
Precip Amount 0.33 0.53 0.41
Precip Duration 7 12 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl/msl)2750 2160 2490
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 41 NE 45 NE 45
Vent Rate (kt-ft) 99000 84240 97110
Max ADI Early 88 Good 88 Good 92 Good
Max ADI Late 96 Good 68 Good 79 Good
Remarks...None.
$$
CTZ005-130630-
Northern Fairfield-
228 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Today Tonight Columbus Day
Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Precip Type Rain Rain Rain
Chance Precip (%) 70 90 80
Chance of Thunder (%) 0 0 0
Temp (24h trend) 60 (-6) 50 (0) 59
RH % (24h trend) 82 (+14) 100 (+1) 90
Wind 20ft/early(mph) NE 10-14 G26 NE 15-19 G33 NE 15-19 G35
Wind 20ft/late(mph) NE 13-17 G30 NE 16-20 G34 NE 14-18 G31
Precip Amount 0.22 0.48 0.36
Precip Duration 6 11 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl/msl)2890 990 2240
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 44 NE 38 NE 38
Vent Rate (kt-ft) 109820 32670 73920
Max ADI Early 69 Good 83 Good 74 Good
Max ADI Late 97 Good 49 Gen Good 74 Good
Remarks...None.
$$
CTZ009-130630-
Southern Fairfield-
228 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Today Tonight Columbus Day
Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Precip Type Rain Rain Rain
Chance Precip (%) 80 90 80
Chance of Thunder (%) 0 0 0
Temp (24h trend) 63 (-4) 51 (-3) 60
RH % (24h trend) 76 (+6) 100 (+6) 89
Wind 20ft/early(mph) NE 14-18 G31 NE 19-23 G41 NE 19-23 G41
Wind 20ft/late(mph) NE 16-20 G37 NE 20-24 G41 NE 17-21 G37
Precip Amount 0.27 0.48 0.38
Precip Duration 7 12 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl/msl)2960 1040 2300
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 48 NE 43 NE 43
Vent Rate (kt-ft) 124320 38480 85100
Max ADI Early 83 Good 95 Good 85 Good
Max ADI Late 112 Very Good59 Gen Good 84 Good
Remarks...None.
$$
CTZ006-130630-
Northern New Haven-
228 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Today Tonight Columbus Day
Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Precip Type Rain Rain Rain
Chance Precip (%) 70 90 80
Chance of Thunder (%) 0 0 0
Temp (24h trend) 61 (-5) 50 (0) 59
RH % (24h trend) 81 (+14) 100 (+2) 88
Wind 20ft/early(mph) NE 11-15 G26 NE 17-21 G33 NE 17-21 G36
Wind 20ft/late(mph) NE 14-18 G31 NE 18-22 G35 NE 15-19 G32
Precip Amount 0.27 0.63 0.45
Precip Duration 6 12 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl/msl)3250 980 2390
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 44 NE 39 NE 39
Vent Rate (kt-ft) 123500 33320 81260
Max ADI Early 73 Good 88 Good 79 Good
Max ADI Late 102 Very Good51 Gen Good 78 Good
Remarks...None.
$$
CTZ010-130630-
Southern New Haven-
228 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Today Tonight Columbus Day
Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Precip Type Rain Rain Rain
Chance Precip (%) 80 90 80
Chance of Thunder (%) 0 0 0
Temp (24h trend) 62 (-6) 52 (-2) 62
RH % (24h trend) 78 (+12) 100 (+6) 87
Wind 20ft/early(mph) NE 13-17 G31 NE 19-23 G41 NE 19-23 G42
Wind 20ft/late(mph) NE 15-19 G36 NE 20-24 G42 NE 17-21 G37
Precip Amount 0.30 0.58 0.39
Precip Duration 7 12 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl/msl)3210 780 2390
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 47 NE 44 NE 43
Vent Rate (kt-ft) 131610 29640 88430
Max ADI Early 79 Good 98 Good 89 Good
Max ADI Late 114 Very Good55 Gen Good 86 Good
Remarks...None.
$$
CTZ007-130630-
Northern Middlesex-
228 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Today Tonight Columbus Day
Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Precip Type Rain Rain Rain
Chance Precip (%) 80 90 80
Chance of Thunder (%) 0 0 0
Temp (24h trend) 60 (-7) 51 (+1) 60
RH % (24h trend) 83 (+17) 100 (+2) 90
Wind 20ft/early(mph) NE 10-14 G29 NE 16-20 G35 NE 16-20 G37
Wind 20ft/late(mph) NE 13-17 G31 NE 16-20 G37 NE 15-19 G33
Precip Amount 0.29 0.65 0.42
Precip Duration 7 12 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl/msl)3280 360 2330
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 44 NE 40 NE 38
Vent Rate (kt-ft) 124640 12600 76890
Max ADI Early 69 Good 86 Good 76 Good
Max ADI Late 101 Very Good45 Gen Good 76 Good
Remarks...None.
$$
CTZ011-130630-
Southern Middlesex-
228 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Today Tonight Columbus Day
Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Precip Type Rain Rain Tstms
Chance Precip (%) 90 90 80
Chance of Thunder (%) 0 0 20
Temp (24h trend) 63 (-5) 53 (0) 63
RH % (24h trend) 78 (+12) 100 (+4) 87
Wind 20ft/early(mph) NE 13-17 G33 NE 19-23 G43 NE 19-23 G43
Wind 20ft/late(mph) NE 16-20 G36 NE 20-24 G44 NE 17-21 G38
Precip Amount 0.34 0.60 0.44
Precip Duration 7 12 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl/msl)3340 640 2390
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 49 NE 46 NE 46
Vent Rate (kt-ft) 143620 25600 95600
Max ADI Early 79 Good 106 Very Good94 Good
Max ADI Late 124 Very Good54 Gen Good 93 Good
Remarks...None.
$$
CTZ008-130630-
Northern New London-
228 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Today Tonight Columbus Day
Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Precip Type Rain Rain Rain
Chance Precip (%) 80 90 80
Chance of Thunder (%) 0 0 0
Temp (24h trend) 60 (-6) 51 (+1) 60
RH % (24h trend) 85 (+20) 100 (+1) 91
Wind 20ft/early(mph) NE 11-15 G29 NE 17-21 G38 NE 17-21 G37
Wind 20ft/late(mph) NE 14-18 G32 NE 18-22 G38 NE 15-19 G33
Precip Amount 0.35 0.65 0.47
Precip Duration 7 12 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl/msl)3180 300 2230
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 45 NE 43 NE 41
Vent Rate (kt-ft) 124020 11100 80280
Max ADI Early 70 Good 89 Good 79 Good
Max ADI Late 104 Very Good46 Gen Good 79 Good
Remarks...None.
$$
CTZ012-130630-
Southern New London-
228 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Today Tonight Columbus Day
Cloud Cover Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy
Precip Type Rain Rain Tstms
Chance Precip (%) 90 100 80
Chance of Thunder (%) 0 0 20
Temp (24h trend) 63 (-4) 52 (0) 62
RH % (24h trend) 80 (+14) 100 (+4) 89
Wind 20ft/early(mph) NE 14-18 G33 NE 19-23 G44 NE 20-24 G44
Wind 20ft/late(mph) NE 16-20 G37 NE 21-25 G45 NE 18-22 G38
Precip Amount 0.40 0.67 0.51
Precip Duration 8 12 12
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Mixing Hgt(ft-agl/msl)3350 360 2260
Transport Wnd (mph) NE 51 NE 48 NE 45
Vent Rate (kt-ft) 147400 15120 88140
Max ADI Early 80 Good 106 Very Good89 Good
Max ADI Late 123 Very Good55 Gen Good 89 Good
Remarks...None.
$$
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...Windy, rain. Lows in the lower 50s.
Highs in the mid 60s. North winds 20 to 30 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 50.
Highs in the lower 60s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...Breezy. Mostly clear. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the upper 50s. Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...Breezy. Mostly clear. Lows around
40. Highs around 60. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
Highs in the mid 60s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures above normal. Precipitation above normal.
$$