930
FNUS71 KOKX 201726
FWSOKX

Spot Forecast for Sterling Forest State Park Brush Fire...New York State Watch Center
National Weather Service New York NY
126 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 EDT on June 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

631-924-0383

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
Just a low chance of a wetting rainfall late today into this
evening north of Sterling Forest. A better chance of thunderstorms
with wetting rainfall may arrive Friday afternoon and evening
with a cold front approaching from the north.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........90 at forecast start...Max 91.
RH..................48 percent at forecast start...Min 44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 5 mph at forecast
                    start...otherwise Southwest winds around 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /43000 knot-ft/ at forecast start.
                    Max...good /50200 knot-ft/.

TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........43  41  38  36
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1
Temp............90  90  90  89
RH..............48  44  47  48
20 FT wind dir..220 220 230 220
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..43  49  50  45
Ventrate Cat....FR  FR  FR  FR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Min 69.
RH..................Max 90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (29200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........33  33  33  33  32  32  31  34  28  32  32  34
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............89  86  83  81  79  78  76  75  73  72  70  69
RH..............48  52  60  63  67  69  74  74  79  79  84  87
20 FT wind dir..230 230 240 240 230 230 240 240 270 270 270 270
20 FT wind spd..5   4   3   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.6   6   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..29  12  1   0   0   1   1   1   1   0   0   1
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early. Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 50 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1100, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Temperature.........Max 91.
RH..................Min 50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (72900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........47  41  34  25  19  19  25  30  34  38  43  50
Weather cov.....                    SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  50  50  50  50
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   3   3   3   3
Temp............69  71  73  76  80  84  86  88  89  90  90  89
RH..............90  87  84  79  72  63  59  54  52  50  52  56
20 FT wind dir..280 280 290 280 280 270 250 240 240 240 270 280
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0   1   4   12  20  28  36  46  56  67  73  66
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD

$$
Forecaster...BG
Requested by...Sean Duffy
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416451.0/OKX
.DELDT 06/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ny.statewatchcenter@dhses.ny.gov