092
FNUS71 KOKX 040731
FWSOKX

Spot Forecast for Buckabear Fire...New Jersey Forest Fire
National Weather Service New York NY
331 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 EDT on September 04.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Weakening high pressure across the area today gives way to
an approaching frontal system tonight. The front weakens
over the area on Friday. This front will bring a chance for rain
tonight and into early Friday morning with much of the day Friday
being dry.

S winds around 10-15 mph possible today. Occasional gusts upwards of
20-25 mph possible, especially into the afternoon. Minimum RH values
today will be in the 40-50 percent range for the Lower Hudson Valley
and NE NJ. Elsewhere 50-60 percent. Minimum RH values rise above
50 percent on Friday.

KBDI values are running 200 to 500 across the CWA.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Patchy fog early in the
                    morning. Slight chance of rain showers late in
                    the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 20 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Temperature.........55 at forecast start...Max 79.
RH..................100 percent at forecast start...Min 42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 2 mph at forecast
                    start...otherwise Light winds becoming south 5
                    to 7 mph with gusts to around 18 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
ADI.................0 early in the morning increasing to 200 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........19  24  28  20  13  5   15  26  36  36  36  36
Weather cov.....PTY PTY                                     SCH
Weather type....FOG FOG                                     RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............55  57  60  64  70  74  77  79  79  78  77  75
RH..............100 100 90  78  61  51  45  42  42  45  50  58
20 FT wind dir..220 210 200 200 190 180 180 180 180 180 170 160
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   5   6   6   7   7   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   8   11  13  14  16  18  18  18  18
ADI.............0   0   6   39  83  126 165 193 200 171 124 76

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers early in the evening, then showers
                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms early
                    in the evening. Chance of showers overnight.
                    Patchy fog overnight.
CWR.................20 percent increasing to 70 percent early in
                    the evening, then decreasing to 40 percent
                    overnight decreasing to 10 percent early in the
                    morning.
Chance of thunder...20 percent.
Temperature.........Min 60.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph with gusts to around 17
                    mph early in the evening becoming light. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
ADI.................44 early in the evening decreasing to 0 late in
                    the night.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........50  65  79  84  89  94  95  95  96  89  81  74
Weather cov.....SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC PTY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  FOG
Tstm cov........        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............20  20  70  70  70  70  70  70  40  40  40  10
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   20  20  20  20  20  20  0   0   0   0
Temp............72  70  68  66  64  63  63  63  62  61  61  60
RH..............64  68  76  81  90  93  93  97  100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..160 170 170 170 180 180 180 190 190 200 210 210
20 FT wind spd..6   6   5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   2   2
20 FT wind gust.17  16  14  14  14  13  12  12  11  10  10  8
ADI.............44  20  5   0   2   7   6   6   5   3   2   2

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning.
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 81.
RH..................Min 54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph with
                    gusts to around 16 mph late in the morning.
ADI.................4 early in the morning increasing to 198 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........72  69  67  57  47  37  35  33  31  27  24  20
Weather cov.....PTY PTY
Weather type....FOG FOG
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............60  61  63  66  68  71  74  76  78  80  81  80
RH..............100 100 97  87  84  76  71  66  62  58  54  56
20 FT wind dir..210 220 220 220 210 200 200 210 210 210 210 210
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   4   5   6   6   6   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.8   7   7   8   10  10  12  14  16  16  14  14
ADI.............4   9   17  26  40  62  103 148 182 198 197 175

$$
Forecaster...MW
Requested by...Livesey
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2521145.0/OKX
.DELDT 09/02/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL clivesey223@gmail.com