741
FXUS66 KOTX 122354
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
454 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Haze and areas of smoke continues, with some improvement
  possible in some areas due to gusty north to northeast winds
  into Thursday.

- Red Flag Warning has been issued for scattered showers and
  thunderstorms through Wednesday evening for portions of
  Central Washington and into early Thursday morning for
  portions of Northeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system skirting the region will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday Night to portions of
Central and Northeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. Most
of the region will see drier weather Thursday through the
weekend except for a chance of showers and thunderstorms
primarily in the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms along the East
Slopes of the Cascades and northern mountains will continue to
develop into the evening hours due to increased lift and
instability with a passing upper level trough. Precipitable
water values around 150% of normal and slow storm motion will
allow for rain to occur with these storms, which could be
locally heavy along the East Slopes of the Cascades and Okanogan
Highlands where storm motion is slowest. If a storm goes over a
vulnerable burn scar debris flows would be possible and
something that will continue to be monitored. Elevated
instability over NE WA into the ID Panhandle will allow for some
storms to persist into the overnight hours and thus the Red Flag
Warning for much of NE WA/N Idaho was extended through 8 AM
Thursday. This passing weather system will also allow a backdoor
cold front to move in from the north and northeast with gusty
winds developing this evening. Several of the high resolution
models show widespread gusts of 25-40 MPH developing and thus
evening winds were increased. As of 2 PM some of these gusts
were already materializing with gusts to around 35 MPH in the
Okanogan Valley and 25 MPH around Bonners Ferry.

Thursday: As the short wave associated with the upper trough
exits large scale lift moves out. However residual moisture and
daytime heating is expected to allow isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop over the high terrain, especially along
the East Slopes of the Cascades.

Friday through Wednesday: Ensemble means show the upper trough
retrograding to off the coast putting the Inland NW in a broad
south to southwest flow for several days. We will need to
closely watch for additional weather disturbances coming through
the region. Yet at this time most of these look on the weaker
side supporting the chance of daily afternoon and evening
thunderstorm chances mainly over the mountains.

Regarding smoke: The strong shift in north to northeast this
evening, with winds remaining out of the north-northeast into
Thursday and Friday may help clear some smoke out of the
region, especially over NE Washington and N Idaho. Yet with the
potential for new fire starts from lightning this is not a high
confidence situation. Several Air Quality agencies have issued
Air Quality Alerts and Advisories which remain in effect for
several counties. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs: VFR/MVFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours
with areas of smoke and haze. Winds will be breezy through the
Cascade gaps including at KEAT. Ensmebles indicate a line of
north winds moving across the Basin during the evening 02-11Z
for /KMWH/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. A chance for -shra and -tsra today
and tonight, especially across the northern counties, including
places like Winthrop, Omak and Colville. Lesser chances at TAF
locations and primarily after 00Z for these locations.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in smoke and haze continuing to impact the area terminals, but
low confidence in extent of reduced vis/cigs. Alternate scenario
near KGEG/KSFF/KCOE, low confidence risk for t-storms after
22-00Z. Outflow winds gusting near 20-30kts possible.


-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        55  81  54  83  53  87 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  55  80  53  82  53  86 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        47  82  46  82  47  86 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       60  88  60  87  60  91 /   0   0  10  10   0  20
Colville       44  78  41  81  43  84 /  80  30  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      47  72  45  77  46  82 /  60  40  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        52  78  51  78  51  83 /  20  30   0  20   0   0
Moses Lake     57  85  58  86  56  89 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      63  85  65  84  64  87 /  70  10  20  20  10   0
Omak           57  85  57  85  57  88 /  50  10  20  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Friday for Central Chelan
     County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-
     Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan
     Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee
     Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County.
     Red Flag Warning until 8 AM PDT Thursday for Colville
     Reservation (Zone 702)-Foothills of Northeast Washington
     (Zone 701)-Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone
     699)-Selkirk Mountains of Northeast Washington (Zone 700).
     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for East Portion
     of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National
     Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central
     Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone
     698)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-
     Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-
     Waterville Plateau (Zone 706).
ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Friday for Lewis and Southern
     Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle.
     Red Flag Warning until 8 AM PDT Thursday for Northern and
     Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).

&&

$$