509
FXUS66 KOTX 011140
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
340 AM PST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool temperatures, light winds, and 20-50% chance of light
  rain Sunday morning in southeast Washington and southern Idaho
  Panhandle. Light rain accumulations up to a tenth of an inch.

- Dry conditions Sunday evening through Wednesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid and high clouds bring a small chance of sprinkles and
showers to southeastern Washington and north Idaho through
Sunday morning. Drier air arrives Sunday afternoon and
conditions remain seasonal and dry through Wednesday. Mountain
snow showers return mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Wednesday: The upper level that was offshore finally
moves into northern California tonight, bringing clouds and
light rain to southeast Washington and the southern Idaho
Panhandle. Because the best dynamics are shifting south, the
chance for substantial rain tonight is decreasing. There is a
10-30% chance of 0.10 or more of rain through Sunday afternoon
for the Palouse, foothills of the Blue Mountains, L-C valley,
and Camas Prairie. Dry air filters in from the west during the
day behind the base of the shortwave trough, which will lead to
very sunny skies filtering into most of the region except
lingering low stratus in southeast Washington and the central
and southern ID Panhandle. There will be a risk for fog Sunday
night with clear skies across the region. Forecasting fog is a
low confidence endeavor but high resolution models are hinting
at fog development on the northern Palouse and chances
increasing to the north and west overnight. Monday through
Wednesday afternoon remains quiet and dry with near normal
temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Wednesday night through Sunday: A couple of waves will move
through the region mid to late week, bringing the potential for
rain and mountain snow. From 4 AM Thursday to 4 AM Saturday,
there is a 5-10% chance of 4+ inches of snow for Stevens Pass
and Lookout Pass and a 30% chance for Washington Pass. The Gulf
of Alaska longwave trough remains firmly anchored into next
weekend with shortwaves pivoting around it, favoring ridging
building into our area which would favor drier conditions in 70%
of the global ensemble. This does not mean it would be
completely dry, especially the Cascades. 30% of the global
ensemble resembles a dirty ridge with deeper troughing in the
northeast Pacific and displaced further east towards the Pacific
northwest. Overall, the next week is drier than we would like
to see for the start of November. /DB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Light rain showers and clouds are moving north through
eastern Washington and north Idaho with mostly a mix of MVFR and
VFR conditions from KMWH eastward. KPUW is the exception where
moist, westerly upslope flow is creating LIFR conditions early
this morning. LAMP probabilities give KPUW a 50% chance or
greater for LIFR conditions to continue through 18Z, then
lifting to IFR and then MVFR through the afternoon. Westerly
flow decreases after 03Z, with KPUW potentially improving to VFR
as the boundary layer flow begins to turn more easterly. Models
begin to show a 20-30% chance for ceilings below 3k feet moving
into KMWH/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE near the end of the forecast period,
but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at the moment.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is high
confidence for KPUW to have reductions through the morning and
much of the afternoon, but there is low confidence in the
precise timing of improvements from LIFR to IFR to MVFR to VFR.
Models show a 50% chance of at least MVFR conditions continuing
through the period, but model soundings suggest a return of VFR
conditions after 03Z. There is a low chance for stratus to
spread west and north Sunday night into Monday morning.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        51  33  51  35  53  34 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  52  33  51  34  53  35 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        43  32  51  35  53  33 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       53  38  55  39  57  39 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       51  27  50  26  53  27 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      50  32  48  31  52  32 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        51  34  51  34  55  36 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     54  29  55  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      52  34  52  40  55  37 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           51  31  52  34  54  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$