198
FXUS66 KOTX 312214
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
314 PM PDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread critical to extreme fire weather conditions on
Saturday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions on Sunday.

- Breezy northerly winds down the Okanogan Valley Sunday night into
Monday morning.

- Cooler temperatures for Sunday into Monday then warming back to
slightly above normal by the middle of next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A robust cold front on Saturday will drive strong surface winds
and bring low humidity across the region, creating widespread
critical to extreme fire weather conditions. Temperatures cool
by 8-12 degrees on Sunday, though lingering breezy winds will
keep fire weather conditions elevated. Warm, dry conditions
return for start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Strong winds and dry conditions will bring widespread critical to
extreme fire weather conditions on Saturday...

Saturday and Saturday night: The well advertised cold front is
knocking on the door of the Northwest and currently approaching the
130W longitudinal line in the eastern Pacific. A deep upper level
low is fueling this frontal system and it`s progged to sweep across
the Inland Northwest tomorrow in the afternoon. The combination of a
fairly deep surface low spinning up east of the Great Divide in
Alberta and strong cold air advection will result in strong winds
across the Inland Northwest. Moisture with the front will all be
squeezed out west of the Cascade crest leaving a dry frontal passage
for eastern Washington and North Idaho.

* Winds: A potent west to east surface gradient will develop across
  the region on Saturday resulting in strong sustained winds up to
  20-30 mph and locally up to 35 mph over north-central Washington
  and the lower Garfield/Asotin counties in the Northeast Blues.
  Widespread wind gusts of 35-45 mph is expected and could locally
  gust as high as 50 mph for these windier locations.

* Fire Weather Impacts: The primary concern with this cold front
  passage is for rapid fire spread for any new or ongoing fires.
  All areas are going to be at risk of seeing at least breezy
  conditions and most being quite gusty. The combination of
  gusty winds and dry conditions will bring critical fire
  conditions regionwide, and areas Wenatchee to the Waterville
  Plateau, Colville Reservation, and Columbia Basin to the
  Spokane Area, Palouse, and Snake River Valley will see the
  potential for extreme fire weather conditions with the wind
  speeds predicted. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to
  a Red Flag Warning and the aforementioned areas of extreme
  fire weather has the Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS)
  attached to them. This indicates the rare situation in which
  fuels are extreme dry in combination of an anomalously windy,
  dry event. Winds also look to shift northwesterly in the
  evening on Saturday primarily across the northwest portion of
  the forecast area.

* Secondary Impacts: Winds will also be capable of minor tree damage
  that could lead to isolated power outages. Another secondary
  concern to watch for will be for blowing dust across the Columbia
  Basin. We aren`t in the blowing dust season when farm fields are
  being planted, so any blowing dust is expected to be patchy.

Sunday into Monday: Fire weather concerns will continue into Sunday
with winds remaining breezy. Not nearly as windy as Saturday, but
still dry and enough for at least elevated fire weather impacts. The
longwave trough of lower pressure pushes into the Northwest on
Sunday and a backside shortwave also swings across during this time.
Winds switch northerly down the Okanogan Valley Sunday night into
Monday and increase at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Winds pick
up overnight as relative humidity values recover. The northerly
winds look to weaken on Monday.

Monday night through Thursday: Winds look to continue to relax next
week under dry northwesterly flow. Fires will likely remain active
without any moisture, and we will see northern winds pushing smoke
from fires burning across north-central Washington and in British
Columbia south. This may result in more smoke and a degradation of
air quality across the Columbia Basin, into the Spokane
Area/Palouse, and in the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures will decrease
briefly in the low 80s on Monday, but then warm back up again back
into the upper 80s and 90s Tuesday through Friday. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Mainly VFR through the 18z TAF cycle with generally
light and diurnally driven winds across the region. Regional
wildfire smoke will remain present and may occasionally mix down
to the surface, particularly between 18z and 03z. A cluster of
larger fires across north-central Washington may result in
visibilities 3-6SM between Methow Valley (KS52) to KOMK and
Colville (K63S). Elsewhere, visibilities may periodically dip
to 5-7SM, particularly at KPUW/KLWS and KMWH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in light wind speeds and diurnally driven wind shifts. Moderate
to high confidence in VFR visibilities prevailing at the TAF
sites except KEAT.

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        60  87  51  77  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  61  87  52  77  51  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        54  83  45  73  43  79 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       65  93  57  80  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       53  89  44  80  44  83 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      57  86  48  76  45  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        59  84  49  71  48  76 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     60  88  50  81  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      66  84  56  80  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           63  91  50  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for Colville
     Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin  -Palouse  -
     Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington
     Cascades (Zone 705)-Foothills of Northeast Washington
     (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse  -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow
     Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains
     (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Selkirk Mountains
     of Northeast Washington (Zone 700)-Waterville Plateau
     (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
     Air Quality Alert until 5 PM PDT Thursday for Central Chelan
     County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-
     Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan
     Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee
     Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday for East
     Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan
     National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington
     Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North
     Cascades (Zone 698).
ID...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for Northern
     and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).
     Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce
     Counties-Lewiston Area.

&&

$$