586
FXUS66 KOTX 171743
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1043 AM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions Wednesday
  afternoon and evening.

- Cooler with increasing precipitation chances Friday through
  the weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer temperatures to start off the week with an increasing
risk for elevated fire weather conditions from gusty winds and
dry conditions through the middle of this week. Cooler
temperatures and chances for showers increase late week into
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Thursday: A weak ridging pattern over the Inland
Northwest will keep temperatures in the 80s for most of the region
through Thursday. A shortwave trough will eject from a larger closed
low situated in the Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday, sending a cold
front into WA and increasing the pressure gradient across the
Cascades. This will bring wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph through the
Cascade gaps and into the western Columbia Basin. With dry and warm
conditions still in place, gusty winds will elevate fire weather
concerns, enabling rapid spread of new and existing fires. A few
areas of higher terrain including the Cascades and northern
mountains of WA and ID have a low chance (20%) of seeing light rain
with this shortwave, but overall it doesn`t look to bring much
moisture. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the lee of the
Cascades and the western Columbia Basin for Wednesday afternoon and
evening due to the gusty winds and low relative humidity values
anticipated.

Friday through Sunday: Models are in strong agreement on the closed
low in the Gulf of Alaska dropping down into the Pacific Northwest
heading into the weekend and bringing with it increased precip
chances and a notable drop in temperatures. By Saturday highs will
be in the 60s regionwide - 10 to 15 degrees below average for this
time of year. As far as precip, northern WA, far eastern WA, and the
ID panhandle are looking at an 80+ percent chance of a wetting rain
(greater than 0.1 inches). The lee of the Cascades and the Columbia
Basin have a 40 percent chance of 0.1 inches. Over the Cascades,
snow levels will drop to 5000 feet, making for a chilly weekend for
any outdoor enthusiasts adventuring in the backcountry. /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Some afternoon
breeziness with gusts up to 20 mph from KGEG to KEAT. Otherwise,
mainly high clouds over the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
for VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
For Wednesday afternoon and evening, a Fire Weather Watch has
been issued for zones 705, 706, and 707. A stronger push of
winds will bring another possible period of critical fire
weather conditions. Models show the cross- Cascade pressure
gradient Wednesday afternoon up to +10mb with a 80-100% chance
for wind gusts greater than 30 mph and a 40-70% chance for wind
gusts greater than 40 mph. Forecasted RHs (18-25%) are marginal,
but higher confidence for stronger winds justified the watch
issuance. Wind gusts of this nature will also be possible in the
foothills of the Blue Mountains in fire zone 709.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        80  52  80  49  78  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  80  51  80  50  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        77  47  78  44  73  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       87  56  88  55  82  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       80  43  79  41  78  43 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      79  48  80  48  79  47 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Kellogg        77  55  78  52  75  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     86  52  85  49  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      85  58  81  53  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           85  51  82  46  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades
     (Zone 705)-Lower Palouse  -Snake River (Zone 709)-
     Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin
     (Zone 707).
ID...None.

&&

$$