769
FXUS66 KOTX 040652
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1052 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry conditions through Wednesday.

- Rain chances develop later Wednesday into Thursday, with
  mountain snow.

- Additional systems arrive late week into the weekend will
  bring light rain and mountain snow chances.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will be seasonal and it will be mostly dry through
Wednesday in the Inland Northwest. Mountain snow showers and
rain showers return later half of the week as a couple systems
move through. Unsettled conditions continue into the weekend and
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today to Thursday: the Inland NW will be in a brief col between
low pressure to the south and a system off the coast today, before
the offshore system moves in tonight into Thursday morning.
Through this morning middle to higher clouds will continue to thin
and this will enable some low clouds and patchy fog in the
sheltered valleys and possibly the Columbia Basin to Palouse and
L-C Valley; confidence is slower in these latter areas because
higher clouds could be slower to erode. Later in the afternoon
into tonight the higher clouds start to increase from the west as
the system approaches. Rain and mountain snow chances will start
into the Cascades by late afternoon to early evening. Rain chances
expand to central Washington from late evening to overnight,
impinging on the eastern third of WA late. By early Thursday
morning rain chances peak over the east third of WA and ID, before
the best chances shift into Idaho in the late morning and
afternoon dissipate into Thursday evening.

This will be mainly mountain snow and valley rain; though some
rain/snow mix is possible in the northern valleys, especially
closer to the Canadian border. Precipitation amounts will be
light, with rain amounts generally less than 0.05 inches and snow
amounts generally less than 0.5 inches and those will be in the
higher mountains. Some gusty winds are possible around south-
central to east-central WA and lower ID Thursday afternoon in the
wake of passing front, with gusts of 15-20 mph. Highs will largely
in the upper 40s to lower 50s today and the upper 40s to upper
50s Thursday, with milder readings toward the deeper basin and
cooler readings to the northeast CWA under the clouds and
precipitation chances. Lows will largely be in the 30s, with some
upper 20s in the sheltered northern valleys.

Friday to Tuesday: The Inland NW transitions to a more
progressive westerly flow, with several embedded system tracking
over the area every other day or so. However westerly flow and
transient nature of these systems suggest limited precipitation
potential. The next precipitation chances expand into the Cascades
early Friday and expand toward northeast WA/north ID late Friday
afternoon through evening. Snow levels start near 3.5-5kft, lowest
in the Cascades and northern mountains, before rising to around
5-8kft by late afternoon. So some mountain snow accumulations are
expected around the Cascades, around 0.5 to 1 inch locally higher
in the higher peaks. Better chances will be early in the day.
Clouds will be more abundant than precipitation elsewhere then.

The next more robust system coming on a 110-120Kt jet stream
arrives Saturday night and Sunday. Precipitation chance rises
over the Cascades first Saturday night, then expand east through
the day Sunday. Probabilities still remain best in the Cascades
and eastern mountains and are held to around 15-25 percent over
the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane/C`dA area, Palouse and lower
ID. Still another system is forecast to come in later Monday into
Tuesday. All of these have some degree of uncertainty in timing
given the more progressive/quicker westerly flow as models can
tend to have trouble with timing in such a flow pattern.

Snow levels Saturday night start near 6.5-8.5kft, drop to around
5-7kft by late Sunday morning, then 3-6kft by late Sunday night
into Monday morning, before moderating back to 6-7kft by Tuesday
afternoon. So this will mean occasional mountain snow, especially
the Cascades. These are mainly above pass level, except Washington
Pass. Saturday night into Sunday models show 2-4 inches in the
mountains; higher peaks could see more. NBM guidance shows about a
30% chance of measurable snow at Stevens Pass and about 80% at
Washington Pass; but for 1 inch probabilities are 10-15% at
Stevens and 55% at Washington Pass. Monday night and Tuesday may
see mountain snow around 0.5-2 inches. The NBM probabilities of
measurable snow by this time are around 5% at Stevens and 45% at
Washington Pass

The other notable feature heading toward Sunday is winds. The
strong jet crossing the area, tightening gradient and increased
mixing shows wind gusts of 20-30 mph Sunday afternoon over the
Waterville Plateau to Upper Columbia Basin east toward the WA/ID
border, as well as the Okanogan valley to Okanogan Highlands.
Strongest winds are forecast for the northeast Waterville Plateau
to Upper Columbia Basin. Highs will be in the upper 40s to mid-50s
much of the period, with slight peak to the mid-50s to lower 60s
Saturday. Lows largely in the 30s are forecast, with some 20s in
the sheltered valleys; Saturday night/Sunday AM will be the
exception with mainly 30s to lower 40s. /Solveig

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mid and high level clouds will continue to move into
the region through tonight before thinning Wednesday morning. As
the high clouds begin to thin with a moist boundary layer areas
of fog and stratus are expected to again develop over the
northern valleys. Models also show a chance for fog and stratus
developing across the Columbia Basin into Spokane/Coeur d`Alene
area, the Palouse, and LC Valley. But with probabilities at 50
percent or less confidence in coverage more than patchy is low
so only went with a FEW-SCT low cloud deck for
KMWH/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions for all TAF sites through this evening. Low
confidence in ceiling and visibility for all TAF sites except
KEAT after 11z Wednesday as areas of stratus and patchy fog
develop.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        35  51  36  49  36  52 /  10   0  20  80   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  36  52  36  47  35  51 /  10   0  10  90   0   0
Pullman        34  51  35  49  35  51 /  10   0  10  80   0   0
Lewiston       38  53  40  55  38  54 /   0   0  10  70   0   0
Colville       28  53  32  49  31  50 /   0   0  20  60   0  10
Sandpoint      34  50  35  45  34  48 /  10   0   0  90  10  10
Kellogg        36  53  35  44  34  51 /   0   0   0  90  10   0
Moses Lake     30  53  35  57  34  54 /  10   0  30  10   0   0
Wenatchee      36  52  39  55  39  51 /   0   0  30   0   0  10
Omak           33  53  38  53  37  51 /   0   0  30   0   0  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$