627
FXUS66 KOTX 292337
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
337 PM PST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder temperatures over the weekend into early next week.

- Light snow Monday night into Tuesday, especially in the
  Central Panhandle Mountains. Minor impacts for the Tuesday
  morning commute possible.

- Modifying temperatures and a transition of snow to rain late
  next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures cool to below normal over the weekend. A weather
system on Monday night will bring light snow mainly to the Idaho
Panhandle and extreme Eastern Washington. Temperatures will
modify and warm above normal late next week. Unsettled late next
week as well with snow transitioning to rain in the lowlands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday morning: A shortwave trough in southern BC is
quickly moving southeast into a moisture starved airmass in north
central Washington this afternoon. KOTX 18z sounding shows extremely
dry air in the 850-700 mb layer which is inhibiting precipitation
formation. Top-down moistening and modest synoptic ascent will
promote flurry production near the Cascade crest, Idaho Panhandle
mountains, and the Blue mountains through tonight. Expecting another
cold night with lows in the teens in 20s with clearing skies for
much of the area except far southeast Washington. Sunday through
Monday morning will be dry as the ridge axis in the northeast
Pacific shifts towards the Olympics and Vancouver Island.

Monday afternoon through Wednesday: Models are in good agreement of
a weak shortwave trough swinging through bringing light lowland snow
to the region Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. This system
will have more moisture content than today but synoptic support is
lacking. Dendritic layer omegas are weak and there are questions of
the quality of moisture in that layer so snow totals in the
ensembles look unimpressive. Eastern Washington has a 15-30% chance
of at least an inch snow from Monday afternoon to Tuesday afternoon.
Those chances for at least an inch increase to 30-50% for north
Idaho (with the exception of the L-C valley being too warm). Stevens
Pass has a 15% chance of 3+" and Lookout Pass has a 35% chance
of 3+". Similar to Sunday, a northerly flow pattern develops
Tuesday night into Wednesday behind this wave bringing dry
conditions.

Thursday onward: Models diverge Thursday as high pressure in the
northeast Pacific directs a subtropical moisture plume around the
northern periphery. With the active storm track coming from the Gulf
of Alaska and deep subtropical moisture coming into the area, the
timeframe will need to be watched closely for potential winter
impacts especially in the mountains with higher snow levels. Details
will remain fuzzy at this point for lowland impacts, but there is
moderate confidence of minor snow (30-60% chance of 3+ inches in 24
hours) at the mountain passes into the weekend and early next week.
db

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs: VFR conditions with mid-high clouds will prevail
except for KPUW and KLWS developing a low stratus deck around
9-13z tonight. Favorable upslope flow into KPUW will allow for
very low cigs perhaps as low as 100 feet Sunday morning. Once
the cloud deck is in place, There is a 90% chance of the
conditions lasting through at least 20z Sunday at KPUW.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
for VFR conditions expect KPUW and KLWS. High confidence for IFR
cigs at KPUW and MVFR cigs at KLWS developing around 9z-13z
Sunday.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        21  35  25  36  28  36 /   0   0   0  10  50  30
Coeur d`Alene  21  34  25  37  29  37 /  10   0   0  10  60  40
Pullman        26  35  24  37  29  37 /  10   0   0  10  60  60
Lewiston       31  39  28  41  33  42 /  10   0   0   0  50  60
Colville       17  35  19  35  22  38 /   0   0   0  20  50  20
Sandpoint      18  32  22  34  27  36 /  10   0   0  20  70  40
Kellogg        21  35  25  37  32  38 /  10   0   0  20  70  70
Moses Lake     23  38  24  37  27  38 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Wenatchee      28  39  29  38  32  41 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Omak           23  37  25  36  27  39 /   0   0   0  10  20   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$