483
FXUS66 KOTX 170600
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1000 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low impact and unsettled wet weather continues this week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Next round of precipitation continues into Monday night. Mild
temperatures will keep snow levels high with primarily light
rain expected. Temperatures cooling closer to normal for the
latter half of next week. A weak weather system on Thursday
brings the potential for light precipitation and light snow in
the mountains. Another wet weekend is on tap.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday: A deepening trough will stretch along
the coast and position a Low off the coast of CA. Ahead of the
trough, a strong southerly push is currently pushing a shower
band south to north across Eastern WA and Idaho Panhandle. It
will bring 0.1-0.2 of an inch of rain into the early overnight
period. The trough and Low will promote a split flow over the
Pacific Northwest and bring a small wave of moisture Monday into
Tuesday. The zonal movement of the wave brings higher chance
for precip to the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle mountains. While
these areas are expected to 0.1-0.2 of an inch of precip, snow
levels will start off around 7000ft tonight and gradually drop
to around 4000ft by Tuesday afternoon. The timing of moisture
and cold air will limit the potential winter weather as most of
the precip will fall as rain before snow levels drop. Snow
amounts for the passes are only up to inch Monday night into
Tuesday. Basin precip will be only a few hundredths. Tonight
lows will in the 40s followed by 30s for Monday night. Highs for
Monday will be in the 50s and drop slightly into the upper 40s
and low 50s. Recent rains and cooler air are expected to bring
fog to portions of the Inland Northwest.

Tuesday night through Sunday: With a ridge building into the
area, drier air will move in behind the wave late Tuesday
through Wednesday. Another trough begins to press into the
region Wednesday night and last through Friday. Ensembles are in
good agreement on the timing and location of the trough.
However, the trough will again stretch along the coast causing
the ensembles to diverge on the strength and moisture amounts as
it passes. It will pull subtropical air leading rising snow
levels to around 4500ft for the Cascades. Cascade passes could
have periods winter weather travel as 2-4 inches are possible
Friday into Saturday with a probability of 70% of at least 2
inches. Idaho Panhandle mountains including Lookout Pass will
see 1-2 inches of snow with a probability of 50% of at least one
inch. Rain across the lowlands will be a few hundredths of an
inch. Ensembles are showing a brief break of precip on Saturday.
It will be followed by the upper level jet supporting a
moisture plume into the region and widespread showers to the
region for Sunday. Highs will be in the 40s and low 50s. Lows
will be in the upper 20s and 30s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: Light precipitation will continue to impact the
eastern third of WA and ID tonight through much of Monday, with
lower chances toward central WA. Expect IFR/local MVFR
conditions through much of the period, with some improvement
near LWS by late Monday.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence for widespread IFR conditions tonight and much
of early Monday. The HREF shows an 80% chance or higher of IFR
conditions at KGEG/KPUW. Some improvement toward MVFR/VFR
conditions possible after 18-00Z from near LWS/MWH/EAT, with
moderate confidence. Lower confidence at PUW and GEG/SFF/COE.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        45  52  40  47  30  45 /  90  60  50  50  20   0
Coeur d`Alene  46  50  42  48  34  44 / 100  80  70  70  50  10
Pullman        44  52  39  46  30  46 / 100  70  60  60  30  10
Lewiston       48  55  45  50  36  49 /  90  70  50  40  20   0
Colville       40  51  37  49  28  45 /  90  70  70  70  40  10
Sandpoint      43  49  40  48  33  43 /  90  90  90  90  70  30
Kellogg        46  50  44  48  35  45 / 100  90  80  90  60  30
Moses Lake     45  54  39  50  29  47 /  60  20  30  20   0   0
Wenatchee      46  55  42  50  34  48 /  40  30  30  10  10   0
Omak           45  53  42  50  33  46 /  40  30  40  30  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$