853
FXUS66 KOTX 171753
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1053 AM PDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light mountain precipitation on Friday. Dry and breezy winds
  for the lee of the Cascades and Columbia Basin Friday
  afternoon.

- Widespread lowland rain, mountain snow Saturday evening
  through Sunday. Widespread breezy winds Sunday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front Friday will bring light precipitation to the
mountains, with dry and breezy winds for the lee of the Cascades
and Columbia Basin Friday afternoon. A stronger system Saturday
into Sunday will bring widespread lowland rain, mountain snow,
and widespread breezy winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday morning: A mid level wave tracking down
through SE British Columbia and southern Alberta into Montana
will send a mainly dry cold front across the Inland NW today.
The main impact will be gusty winds as a 120 kt upper jet moves
over the region. Cold advection during the afternoon behind the
front will produce gusty winds over much of the region,
especially the Okanogan Valley, Columbia Basin, Wenatchee area,
Waterville Plateau, and Palouse with 20-30 MPH gusts. The chance
of precipitation will be limited to the Cascade crest and ID
Panhandle. Winds will decrease overnight into Saturday morning
as a short wave ridge moves over the region ahead of the next
weather system.

Saturday afternoon through Sunday Night: A consolidated upper
trough passes through the region with an associated frontal
boundary passage. Swift mid level west-southwest flow will lead
to light precipitation totals for Central Washington (less than
.10 inches), while Eastern Washington and the ID Panhandle
receives 0.25-.0.75 inches, with local amounts of 1.00-1.25
inches near the Cascade crest and ID Panhandle Mountains. Snow
levels Saturday afternoon into the evening start off around 7000
feet, before dropping to 4500-5500 feet on Sunday. These snow
levels will give Washington Pass the highest snow totals with
the NBM advertising an 80% chance of at least 4 inches, and a 35
percent chance of at least 8 inches. Snow may also mix in at
Stevens Pass. Regarding winds, a low to mid level jet sets up
behind the front for Sunday afternoon over central and southern
Washington. The NBM is carrying a 60-70% chance of gusts at 40
MPH on the Waterville Plateau and the Palouse, and a 60% chance
of gusts exceeding 50 MPH for the Alpowa Summit area.

Monday through Thursday: The upper jet retreats north of the
area with the Inland NW catching the southern edge of low
pressure systems tracking into Canada. This results in a mainly
dry forecast. On Thursday the jet begins to dig south towards
the region, which will be the beginning of another unsettled
weather pattern developing by the end of next week. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Sky conditions are clearing behind the exiting cold
front. TAF sites are generally expected to be VFR. Winds be
notably breezy today out of the west, peaking between midday and
late afternoon, with gusts near 20-30 mph possible at TAF
sites. Wind decline after 01-03Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions at the TAF sites. Low confidence is MVFR
conditions at GEG/SFF/COE/PUW due to low clouds/patchy fog
between 12-18Z.

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        60  31  56  43  57  37 /   0   0   0  80  70  30
Coeur d`Alene  57  32  56  42  54  38 /  20  10   0  90  80  60
Pullman        57  30  56  43  54  37 /  10   0   0  70  80  50
Lewiston       66  38  63  48  61  42 /   0   0   0  50  80  40
Colville       58  21  53  38  55  29 /  10   0  10  80  70  30
Sandpoint      55  28  53  40  51  36 /  40  10  10 100  90  70
Kellogg        54  33  55  41  50  40 /  50  30   0  90  90  80
Moses Lake     65  29  57  43  62  36 /   0   0   0  50  30  10
Wenatchee      62  37  56  42  59  41 /   0   0  10  70  40  20
Omak           62  33  55  39  59  36 /   0   0  10  60  30  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$