


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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556 FXUS66 KOTX 151112 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 412 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold overnight low temperatures through Wednesday night. - Rain, high mountain snow, and breezy winds this weekend. && .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather with seasonable daytime temperatures are expected through Thursday with cold overnight lows. Wet weather and breezy winds return for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Wednesday through Friday: A closed low will track eastward from California into Nevada and Utah through Wednesday. This will allow a subtle ridge west of the Cascades to shift into the Inland Northwest Wednesday and Thursday. A persistent dry air mass, with precipitable water values below 0.40 inches through Thursday morning, will support effective radiative cooling overnight. This will result in chilly low temperatures in the 20s to low 30s for most areas, with mid to upper 30s near larger water bodies like the Columbia River and in the L-C Valley. From Thursday into Friday, models consistently indicate an upper- level trough moving across British Columbia, which will flatten the ridge. This will lead to increased cloud cover across the Inland Northwest. However, limited moisture and dynamics suggest that the highest precipitation chances (30-60%) will be confined to orographically favored areas, including the Cascades and the Idaho Panhandle mountains, from Thursday night into Friday morning. Saturday and Sunday: Following the weak system, a transient upper- level ridge will move into the Northwest ahead of a stronger system in the Gulf of Alaska. Models show good agreement for precipitation chances to increase across the entire Inland Northwest Saturday afternoon as a frontal system moves onshore. Initial snow levels will be high due to warm, moist air advection within the southwest flow. Snow levels are then expected to fall to below 5000 feet for central Washington and around 5500 feet over the Idaho Panhandle behind a cold front on Sunday. Ensemble differences persist regarding the troughs strength and resultant precipitation amounts, with 57% of ensembles depicting a quicker trough with more zonal flow and 43% showing a deeper, slower-moving trough. The NBM indicates a greater than 50% chance for 0.25 inches of precipitation in the Cascades, far eastern Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle. It also shows a 50% chance for at least 2 inches of snow over Washington Pass and a 15% chance for Stevens Pass. Wind gusts exceeding 45 mph will also be a concern on Sunday, with the NBM showing a 20-40% chance from the Wenatchee area through the Columbia Basin into the Spokane area and across the Palouse and Blue Mountains. Monday and Tuesday: Ensembles suggest additional systems may impact the Northwest early next week, but significant differences in the overall specifics leads to a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast at this time. /vmt && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at TAF sites. Some patchy fog this morning in the sheltered northern valleys. Middle and high level clouds move in from the northwest this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 59 31 58 36 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 Coeur d`Alene 58 33 57 36 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 20 10 Pullman 54 29 56 35 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 20 10 Lewiston 59 37 61 42 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 Colville 59 21 57 23 57 24 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 Sandpoint 56 29 55 31 54 31 / 0 0 0 10 30 10 Kellogg 58 34 56 39 53 37 / 0 0 0 10 50 30 Moses Lake 60 29 60 35 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 61 40 61 44 62 42 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 Omak 61 35 61 36 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Moses Lake Area- Wenatchee Area. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Moses Lake Area. ID...None. && $$