452
FXUS66 KOTX 062139
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
239 PM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry through Thursday.

- Cold overnight temperature in sheltered valleys through
  Wednesday.

- Unsettled weather over the weekend including the potential of
  light mountain pass snow and breezy winds.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier conditions expected over the weekend into early next week
with chilly overnight lows and areas of frost. Temperatures will
increase slightly through the week. Next weekend brings chances
of unsettled weather and precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday: After a chilly morning, the ridge centered
over the Canadian coast will flatten and bring widespread
higher heights to the area, bringing milder temperatures through
mid-week. With minimal cloud cover, overnight temperatures will
remain chilly through Tuesday but be back in the 40s by
Wednesday. High temperatures will climb back into the 70s on
Wednesday as well. No rain is expected through early Wednesday
morning as conditions remain dry with PWATs at 0.4-0.6, around
80-90% of normal.

Wednesday afternoon through Monday: An upper level low originating
over the western Canadian coast will drop down into the Pacific
Northwest on Wednesday afternoon. It will then retrograde
westward just off the Pacific coast on Thursday. This will bring
some chances of precipitation to the forecast area, but they
are currently low, with NBM probabilities sitting at only
20-40%. The location of this upper low is still being resolved
by models, so these probabilities could increase if the low is
closer to the state, or decrease if the low is further off the
coast. Winds will increase down the Okanogan Valley and spill
into the basin, with gusts anticipated to reach 25-30 mph
Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evening. Throughout the
basin, winds will be weaker, with gusts 15-20 mph. On Friday,
the low will then begin moving northeastward into Washington and
usher in a wet cold front on Saturday. This will raise PWATs to
100-150% of normal, bringing a more appreciable chance of
precipitation. Mountain elevations above 3500 feet throughout
eastern Washington and northern Idaho have a 20-70% chance of
seeing 2 inches of snow through Sunday morning, which would
bring some areas their first measurable snowfall of the season.
Elsewhere in the forecast area, there is a 35% chance and higher
of 0.25 inches of rain falling between Saturday and Monday.
Chances for a quarter inch are lower for the Moses Lake,
Wenatchee, and Ephrata areas, sitting at 15-25%. With the cold
front passage on Saturday night, ensemble guidance is showing
early signals of gusty winds in southeastern Washington and the
Central Idaho Panhandle. Areas from Spokane across to Coulee
City and down to Lewiston currently have a 20-50% chance of wind
gusts near 30 mph on Saturday afternoon. The passage of the
cold front on Saturday will start a downward trend in
temperatures. By Monday, lows will be in the mid-30s with
subfreezing temperatures anticipated in sheltered valleys. High
temperatures will drop into the mid-50s to low 60s.

Tuesday and beyond: Ensemble model agreement decreases
significantly, with 36% of models showing higher heights moving
in, indicating a return to milder and drier conditions. 64% of
models show lower heights moving in, but the placement of the
low pressure system is unclear. Well continue to monitor the
long term forecast and any changes to the weekend forecast. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Ceilings are anticipated to be at VFR through the
forecast period for all sites but KEAT. Active fires in the
Cascades are producing smoke and haze and currently EAT is at
MVFR with lowered visibilities. It will continue to periodically
drop in and out of IFR through the day. This smoke is expected
to clear out of the area by the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions across the region except near
KEAT where active fire active with result in smoke filled
valleys and MVFR to periodic IFR conditions. Low confidence in
when the smoke will move out of the area. /AS

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        39  71  42  71  44  75 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  39  71  42  71  45  73 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        38  70  41  71  42  74 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       43  75  47  75  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       29  68  30  68  35  73 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Sandpoint      35  66  38  68  40  69 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Kellogg        43  70  47  71  48  74 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     37  71  38  69  44  73 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Wenatchee      46  70  46  67  47  70 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Omak           42  71  42  68  45  73 /   0   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until further notice for Central Chelan
County- Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-
Western Chelan County.
ID...None.

&&

$$