556
FXUS66 KOTX 151112
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
412 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold overnight low temperatures through Wednesday night.

- Rain, high mountain snow, and breezy winds this weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with seasonable daytime temperatures are expected
through Thursday with cold overnight lows. Wet weather and
breezy winds return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Wednesday through Friday: A closed low will track eastward from
California into Nevada and Utah through Wednesday. This will
allow a subtle ridge west of the Cascades to shift into the
Inland Northwest Wednesday and Thursday. A persistent dry air
mass, with precipitable water values below 0.40 inches through
Thursday morning, will support effective radiative cooling
overnight. This will result in chilly low temperatures in the
20s to low 30s for most areas, with mid to upper 30s near larger
water bodies like the Columbia River and in the L-C Valley.

From Thursday into Friday, models consistently indicate an
upper- level trough moving across British Columbia, which will
flatten the ridge. This will lead to increased cloud cover
across the Inland Northwest. However, limited moisture and
dynamics suggest that the highest precipitation chances (30-60%)
will be confined to orographically favored areas, including the
Cascades and the Idaho Panhandle mountains, from Thursday night
into Friday morning.

Saturday and Sunday: Following the weak system, a transient
upper- level ridge will move into the Northwest ahead of a
stronger system in the Gulf of Alaska. Models show good
agreement for precipitation chances to increase across the
entire Inland Northwest Saturday afternoon as a frontal system
moves onshore. Initial snow levels will be high due to warm,
moist air advection within the southwest flow. Snow levels are
then expected to fall to below 5000 feet for central Washington
and around 5500 feet over the Idaho Panhandle behind a cold
front on Sunday. Ensemble differences persist regarding the
troughs strength and resultant precipitation amounts, with 57%
of ensembles depicting a quicker trough with more zonal flow and
43% showing a deeper, slower-moving trough. The NBM indicates a
greater than 50% chance for 0.25 inches of precipitation in the
Cascades, far eastern Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle. It
also shows a 50% chance for at least 2 inches of snow over
Washington Pass and a 15% chance for Stevens Pass. Wind gusts
exceeding 45 mph will also be a concern on Sunday, with the NBM
showing a 20-40% chance from the Wenatchee area through the
Columbia Basin into the Spokane area and across the Palouse and
Blue Mountains.

Monday and Tuesday: Ensembles suggest additional systems may
impact the Northwest early next week, but significant
differences in the overall specifics leads to a high degree of
uncertainty in the forecast at this time. /vmt

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at TAF sites. Some patchy
fog this morning in the sheltered northern valleys. Middle and
high level clouds move in from the northwest this afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions.

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        59  31  58  36  58  34 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  58  33  57  36  57  35 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Pullman        54  29  56  35  57  34 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Lewiston       59  37  61  42  63  41 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Colville       59  21  57  23  57  24 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Sandpoint      56  29  55  31  54  31 /   0   0   0  10  30  10
Kellogg        58  34  56  39  53  37 /   0   0   0  10  50  30
Moses Lake     60  29  60  35  63  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      61  40  61  44  62  42 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Omak           61  35  61  36  62  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Moses Lake Area-
     Wenatchee Area.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Thursday for
     Moses Lake Area.
ID...None.

&&

$$