261
FXUS66 KOTX 012355
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
355 PM PST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry conditions Sunday evening through Wednesday.

- Two systems moving in mid to late week will bring light rain
  and mountain snow.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air moving in Sunday afternoon will result in conditions
being seasonal and mostly dry through Wednesday. Mountain snow
showers and rain showers return mid to late week as two systems
move through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Wednesday afternoon: As the low moves further
southeastward, clouds will continue to clear from the Inland
northwest moving eastward as well. The last of any residual fog is
finally dissipating. By later this evening, most areas apart from
Shoshone County in Idaho will see clear skies. This clearing,
alongside a moist boundary layer and light winds, leads to the
potential for fog formation tomorrow morning. Areas that look to see
the best potential for fog are the Spokane area down into the
Columbia Basin, which see RHs closest to or at 100%. Should dense
fog form as it did this past Saturday morning, make sure you slow
down and use your low beams if you encounter fog tomorrow morning.
Aside from light showers in the Cascades on Tuesday as a low passes
to our south, things look relatively quiet through Wednesday
afternoon. Highs will continue to be near normal (high 40s to low
50s), as will lows (low to mid 30s).

Wednesday night through Friday: Wednesday night into Thursday, the
first of two mid to end of week systems moves through. A trough will
move through, bringing a chance for light rain and mountain snow.
Snow levels with this system will be very high, 5000 feet and above,
and totals will be low, with Stevens Pass expected to see an inch or
less and Washington Pass expected to see 2-3 inches. From Moses Lake
to Omak and Southward, expect light precipitation with totals under
0.10 inches.

Thursday night into Friday, the next system will move in, bringing
more rain and mountain snow to the area. Stevens Pass has an 11%
chance of seeing 4 or more inches of snow Thursday night through
Friday night, and Washington Pass has a 26% chance. Snow levels will
be slightly lower with this storm, around 4500 feet. The rest of the
forecast area looks to see rain, but not much, with most of the area
seeing 0.10 inches or lower. The highest totals will be seen in the
Cascades and ID Panhandle mountains, where there is a 30 percent
chance of a quarter-inch of rain. As this system moves in, a
tightening pressure gradient will lead to breezy winds in the
Okanogan Valley Friday afternoon and evening, though impacts look to
be minimal.

Saturday through Sunday: Ridging over the PNW will take place as a
strong low stays put off the Alaskan and Canadian coast. 70 percent
of the ensembles show higher heights over the entire forecast area,
and temperatures will rise a few degrees by Saturday and Sunday.
Small shortwaves along the ridge will promote continued showers,
especially in the Cascades. Confidence decreases into next week,
with clusters torn on the strong low impacting the PNW or staying
off the coast with the ridge prevailing. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A low confidence forecast for low ceilings continues
this evening with KPUW-KPUW being right close to the edge of a
low stratus deck and KGEG-KSFF being near the edge of boundary
layer convective rolls. The boundary layer roll MVFR ceilings
for KSFF-KCOE likely erode quickly after sunset around 01-02Z.
KPUW-KLWS remains low confidence prior to 06Z for clearing
conditions. The pattern tonight favors fog for the Columbia
Basin and west plains, but confidence is low on timing. Models
suggest formation around 06Z-12Z for KGEG-KMWH. Easterly flow
should prevent this forming at KPUW. KSFF-KCOE-KEAT have low
chances of fog formation per the HREF, but the HREF has
struggled badly this fall and the high resolution Canadian has
some. Have left these sites VFR for now given low confidence,
but amendments may be needed tonight. Fog clears around 17-19Z
and a high cloud deck overspreads the region.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence
for fog and stratus through 19Z. High confidence in VFR
conditions Monday afternoon.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        33  50  35  52  34  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  33  50  34  52  35  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        32  51  34  53  33  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       38  55  39  55  39  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       27  49  26  52  26  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      32  48  31  50  32  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        34  50  34  53  35  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     29  54  35  56  29  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      34  50  41  53  38  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           31  50  35  53  33  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$