192
FXUS66 KOTX 111152
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
452 AM PDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread smoke and haze will continue to impact the region.

- Elevated fire conditions continue through the first part of
  the week with potential breezy winds for portions of central
  Washington.

- Showers and Thunderstorm chances Wednesday through Thursday morning.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread smoke and haze will continue to impact the region
over the next few days, especially in the vicinity of or
downwind of regional wildfires. A quasi-zonal upper level
pattern will continue through the first half of the week,
bringing periods of breezy westerly winds and some slightly
cooler temperatures to the region. A trough skirting by to the
north may bring some precipitaiton chances to northern portions
of the area by mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tuesday and Tuesday night: The Inland NW will remain smokey but
relatively quiet one more day. A zonal/westerly flow will
persist, but a trough starts to dig along the Pacific NW coast
later tonight. Expect continued breezy conditions near the
Cascades and a thermal axis near the Cascades that could enhance
any fire growth there. Smoke from regional wildfires will continue
to spread from west to east, still coming from the more active
near the Cascades and north-central WA. Temperatures will reach
the 80s to low 90s.

Wednesday to Friday: A trough of low pressure will move into the
area this period. This will come with increasing moisture and
increasing iinstability as the cooler mid-level temperatures
arrives with the upper trough. Models paint 100-500 J/kg over the
Cascades to northeast WA and north ID Wednesday afternoon. ECMWF
lightning progs show a modest potential for thunderstorms across
the northern counties Wednesday afternoon, potentially
propagating east and southeast across the Columbia Basin later in
the afternoon to evening. This will come with the risk for
lightning caused fire starts and gusty outflow winds could also
bring spread of any new or existing fires, with those outflows
winds more apt to expand a modest distance away from the parent
t-storm. In addition, brief downpours and small hail will be
possible with t-storms. The best chance for wetting rains will be
in the northern counties. Confidence is low, but we will have to
watch for any debris flow with any downpours near some of these
burn scars. Winds will increase from the north later Wednesday
down the Okanogan Valley to western Basin, creating a more generic
elevated fire weather conditions. Temperatures will be in the 80s
to low 90s, with some upper 70s Thursday as the coolest day.

Heading into Thursday and Friday the area remains under the
unstable upper trough. So isolated to scattered showers and a
chance for t-storms will continue, though by this time largely
near the mountains. Some may slip across the northeast basin and
Palouse too. Wind will remain breezy over central WA.

Saturday to Monday: The Inland NW remains in a southwest flow and
in the possible path of continues impulses/shortwaves. Most of
these are directed toward the southeast CWA, bringing some shower
and isolated t-storm chances there this weekend. The risk expands
out the more of the mountains Monday, possibly the lowlands.
However these do not look like big precipitation producers.
Overall confidence is low, but we`ll have to watch any of this for
any lightning impacts. Temperatures will be in the 80s to low
90s. /Solveig

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs: Smoke and haze from regional wildfires will continue
to bring reduced visibilities to the TAF sites at times. Winds
will be breezy through the Cascade gaps including at KEAT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in smoke and haze continuing to impact the area terminals, but
low confidence in extent of reduced vis/cigs.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        87  55  84  54  82  53 /   0   0   0  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  86  54  84  53  81  52 /   0   0   0  20  30  20
Pullman        84  48  81  46  81  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       91  60  88  60  87  60 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       88  47  83  43  80  42 /   0   0  30  70  50  20
Sandpoint      83  49  80  46  75  45 /   0   0  10  60  50  10
Kellogg        83  53  81  52  77  50 /   0   0   0  10  30  10
Moses Lake     89  57  87  57  86  57 /   0   0   0  30   0  10
Wenatchee      90  63  86  62  85  64 /   0   0  10  50  10  10
Omak           90  61  85  56  85  57 /   0   0  20  50  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until 11 AM PDT Thursday for Central Chelan
     County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-
     Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan
     Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee
     Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County.
ID...Air Quality Alert until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-
     Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-
     Northern Panhandle.

&&

$$