722
FXUS66 KOTX 152220
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
220 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low impact and unsettled wet weather continues throughout
  next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Next round of precipitation will come Sunday and continue into
Monday night. Mild temperatures will keep snow levels high with
primarily light rain expected. Temperatures cooling closer to
normal for the latter half of next week. A weak weather system
on Thursday brings the potential for light precipitation and
light snow in the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday night: The Northwest is situated within a
split flow regime with a cutoff low pressure system off of the
southern California coast and shortwave ridging of high pressure
over the Northwest Region. Relatively higher heights building in
today after a period of unsettled weather has resulted in a drying
trend with a mix of mid to low clouds with low levels fairly
saturated, especially over the Idaho Panhandle. A trough of low
pressure is digging across the Gulf of Alaska and approaching the
region. This trough will act to kick out the cutoff low spinning
offshore of southern California with a trajectory that takes it
northeast into Nevada by tomorrow afternoon. A deformation band
will form in the northwest quadrant of this low across eastern
Oregon into southeast Washington, and eventually across the
Idaho Panhandle by Sunday night. The band will be slow moving
and have a relatively long residence time over mainly the
eastern two-thirds of the forecast area resulting in a soggy
period with persistent light stratiform precipitation. The
stratiform and stable nature of the precipitation will mean that
intensities will be light, but steady. Not expecting any major
bumps in stream flow. Mainly just some small puddles on roadways
and a nuisance for anyone outside and trying to stay dry. Snow
levels will be high at 7,000 plus feet and not expected to bring
snow even for the mountains. Expect rain to increase tomorrow
afternoon, especially late, and then continue into Sunday
evening and through Sunday night. The upper level trough then
swings in Sunday night into Monday and increases moist
isentropic ascent across at least extreme Eastern Washington and
into the Idaho Panhandle with continued light precipitation.
The two day total of rain for extreme Eastern Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle will generally fall between 0.25 and 0.75
inches with the higher terrain in the Idaho Panhandle to receive
the higher end of this range. This period will be mild with
temperatures above normal; however, we do see temperatures
cooling closer to normal from the mid 50s this weekend to the
mid to upper 40s by Tuesdays for high temperatures.

Wednesday through Saturday: Temperatures remain steady with highs in
the mid to upper 40s through the rest of the week and overnight lows
in the lower 30s. This is only slightly above normal for what we
would expect for mid November. There is good agreement in the model
ensembles for a split pattern to continue. A trough of low pressure
will dig in the eastern Pacific Wednesday into Wednesday night, and
the bulk of the energy will split off and dive south of the
Northwest delivering the bulk of the precipitation into Oregon and
the state of California. This will leave just a fraction of energy
and moisture to traverse across the state of Washington along the
northern branch of the Polar Jet Stream. There is some indication
for a weak Atmospheric River (AR) to consolidate and be
directed into the Northwest around Friday into next weekend.
Cluster analysis looking at different scenarios are in good
agreement with approximately 80-90% of the members indicating
this scenario in zonal flow. A minority of the ensemble members
show more ridging over the region keeping the Polar Jet, and
storm track, north of the region where the majority of the
precipitation with the AR would be directed into British
Columbia. Snow levels will be a bit lower towards the end of
next week, but any snow still would be restricted to the
mountains. There is potential for impacts due to snow over
mountain passes in the Cascades, including Washington Pass and
Stevens Pass, and potentially over Lookout Pass. These mountain
passes have a 30-50% chance for seeing at least 6 inches over a
48 hour period for next weekend. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs: Varying levels of clouds over the Inland Northwest
today. Stratocumulus cloud cover over the mountains will result
in mountain obscurations and MVFR ceilings at airports. This
will include KPUW/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE as low clouds expand out of the
Idaho Panhandle into these airports at least into the early
afternoon hours. Warm air advection and downsloping off of the
higher terrain of the Idaho Panhandle this evening into tonight
should result in a general decrease and dissipation of this
cloud cover yielding VFR conditions into Sunday morning.
Moisture will increase over southeast Washington into the
southern to central Idaho Panhandle with rain increasing Sunday
afternoon.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Latest
satellite imagery showing an expanding stratocumulus cloud deck
with ceilings between 1,500 and 3,500 ft agl gives moderate
confidence that KPUW/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE will see MVFR conditions
this morning into the early afternoon. The 12Z HREF model
guidance suggests that ceilings will lift and/or clouds
dissipate between 22-02Z from KPUW earlier in the day then into
KGEG/KSFF by late afternoon. Model guidance suggests it will be
after 02Z before KCOE will see improvement and VFR conditions.
/SVH

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        56  42  55  44  50  37 /  20  20  50  80  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  54  43  54  44  49  39 /  50  30  50  90  90  80
Pullman        56  42  53  43  49  36 /  50  10  70  90  90  70
Lewiston       61  45  55  47  54  42 /  30  10  70  90  70  60
Colville       54  38  53  39  51  35 /  30  50  40  70  80  70
Sandpoint      50  42  52  42  49  38 /  80  70  60  90  90  90
Kellogg        50  44  55  46  50  39 /  90  40  70  90 100  90
Moses Lake     60  42  55  43  54  35 /  10  10  30  50  30  20
Wenatchee      60  46  55  46  54  38 /  10  20  20  50  20  20
Omak           55  44  54  44  52  39 /  10  20  30  40  30  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$