671
FXUS66 KOTX 182126
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
226 PM PDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread lowland rain, mountain snow late Saturday
  afternoon through Sunday. Widespread breezy to windy
  conditions Sunday.
- Dry, seasonal start to next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system from late Saturday afternoon into Sunday will
bring widespread lowland rain, mountain snow, and widespread
breezy to windy conditions. Dry, seasonal start is expected for
next week with another system tracking in for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday: Clouds will continue to increase through
the rest of the evening as the Low moves closer. The Low will
support a decent plume of moisture pushing into the Inland
Northwest and bring widespread showers. Precipitable water
values will increase to 0.75-1.0 through Sunday. Snow levels
will range from 4000-4500ft. Ensembles have increased the snow
amounts for the Cascade Mountain passes. An advisory has been
issued for Washington Pass for possible winter travel conditions
on Sunday. The Pass is expected to receive 7 to 11 inches of
snow. It can bring travel issues to Stevens Pass with a 60-70%
probability of 24 hour snow total of 4 inches. The lower
elevations of Washington can expect rain ranging from
0.10-0.40. Idaho Panhandle amounts range from 0.70-1.00. Winds
will increase across the Basin with the system passage with
sustained speeds of 25 to 25 mph and gusts peaking around 40 mph
on Sunday afternoon. Winds could be locally stronger around the
Blues with gusts near 50 mph possible. Ensembles are also
showing increased instability for the Spokane and Central Idaho
Panhandle areas. An afternoon thunderstorm is not out of the
question for these areas. Highs will continue to 50s to low
60s. Overnight lows will trend warmer with the increasing clouds
decreasing the radiative cooling efficiency. Lows will be in
the upper 30s and 40s.

Monday through Thursday: Ensembles are building a ridge over
the region for the start of next week. It will bring a dry trend
through Wednesday. The ridge will also stall a Low over the
Gulf of Alaska. Ensembles are bringing the Low across the
Pacific Northwest next weekend. It has potential to bring
impactful mountain snow and rain to the Inland Northwest. Highs
will continue to be in the 50s and low 60s. Lows will drop back
to the upper 20s and 30s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: TAF sites are expected to remain VFR with light winds
through much of the period. A frontal system offshore will
bring increasing mid and high level clouds this morning, with
ceilings gradually lowering this afternoon and evening.

Chances for scattered light showers will increase from west to
east ahead of the cold front this afternoon, with a more defined
band of precipitation moving through Saturday night. Ceilings
are expected to remain VFR with the initial showers, lowering to
MVFR around 06Z at KEAT and near 10Z at KGEG, KSFF, and KCOE as
the heavier rain band moves through. Ceilings should remain VFR
at KMWH, KPUW, and KLWS.

Models show 850 mb winds increasing to 35-40 kt across
southeast Washington within the warm sector, which could produce
some LLWS at PUW between 08-12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
for widespread VFR conditions through much of the period, with
high confidence for VFR conditions through the period for
KMWH/KPUW/KLWS. Moderate confidence in MVFR conditions at KEAT
after 06Z and for KGEG/KSFF/KCOE after 10Z.

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        43  55  37  54  34  58 / 100  90  50   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  42  52  38  52  35  57 / 100 100  80  10   0  10
Pullman        43  52  37  52  33  57 /  90 100  80   0   0  10
Lewiston       48  60  42  60  39  62 /  80 100  70   0   0   0
Colville       38  53  29  54  23  56 / 100  90  50   0  10  10
Sandpoint      40  49  36  49  32  54 / 100 100  90  20  20  10
Kellogg        41  49  40  48  36  57 / 100 100 100  50  10  10
Moses Lake     43  60  36  59  32  58 /  80  40  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      42  57  41  59  39  58 /  90  40  30   0   0   0
Omak           39  57  36  57  34  57 /  90  50  20   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties-Northeast Blue Mountains.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT
     Sunday for Western Okanogan County.
ID...None.

&&

$$