784
FXUS66 KOTX 151717
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1017 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual warming trend through Monday.

- Gusty winds Monday through Thursday with passing systems.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild temperatures are expected for the weekend. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will continue along the Canadian
border today. Warmer temperatures into Monday before an
increasing risk for elevated fire weather conditions from gusty
winds through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and tonight: Mostly dry and warm weather will continue. A
southwest flow with upsloping into the northern mountains will
bring a limited shower threat north of highway 20 this
afternoon. A boundary lingering near the southeast WA and the
lower ID Panhandle will couple with a passing shortwave to bring
a bit more cloud cover to that part of the CWA today too. Some
guidance shows a limited shower threat in that area as early as
this morning. There have been some weak echoes south of our CWA
during the overnight, but the emphasis is on weak. I did retain
some limited shower threat over southeast Shoshone county.
However ensembles generally keep the potential for measurable
precipitation at 10% or less elsewhere. Clouds start to decrease
from the west later this afternoon into tonight. Wind will
generally be light in the morning. The some localized gust near
10-15 mph, locally higher near the Cascades and northern
mountains, will be possible in the afternoon. Highs will be in
the upper 70s and 80s.

Monday to Saturday: Heading into the new work week, the pattern
remains on the dry side, save for some limited shower chances,
and winds will become breezy some days; but toward the end of
the week models are showing an increased potential for
precipitation and cooler temperatures. First Monday a slightly
stronger shortwave slides across the area. Some moisture feeds
back into the southeastern CWA with the boundary lingering in
that area. Expect increasing clouds and a limited shower threat,
largely near the Blues and Camas Prairie. A stray t-storms is
also possible in the afternoon. Other isolated showers will be
possible near the North Cascades and just along the Canadian
border, though the better risk will stay north of the border.
The passing shortwave will otherwise do so dry, but winds will
are expected to increase. Gusts near 20-30 mph are possible near
the Cascades to western Basin in the afternoon. Highs will be
in the 80s to low 90s. Relative humidity values will bottom out
in the teens and 20s. The combination of hot temperatures, dry
RH values and the breezy winds will mean an elevated fire
weather concern.

Heading into Tuesday through Thursday an trough of low pressure
deepens over the eastern Pacific, putting the Pacific Northwest
in a diffluent and breezy westerly flow on the southeast side
of that trough. Occasional waves eject across the region, but
pass largely with little precipitation potential. Limited shower
chances will be near near the Cascade crest Tuesday afternoon,
then near the Cascade crest and northern mountains Wednesday and
Thursday, Wednesday looks like the best day between Tuesday and
Thursday with the stronger shortwave. The potential for
t-storms is limited, so is left out of the forecast for now but
it will be monitored. The more notable and potentially impactful
weather feature will remain the winds and low RH values. Each
afternoon between Tuesday and Thursday RH values bottom out in
the teens and 20s. Winds increase each day, with Wednesday
looking like the windiest day with broader potential for winds
gusting near 25-35 mph in the afternoon/early evening. The joint
probability of winds and low RH combining to elevated fire
concerns is about 20-40% that day per the LREF. So this will be
another day to monitor. However the winds on Tuesday and
Thursday are only looking slightly lower. So each day may pose
some risks. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal, but
cool compared to Monday, with highs in the upper 70s and 80s.

Going into the end of the week between Thursday night and
Saturday, models start to bring the cooler and wetter trough
inland. Clouds start to increase, along with precipitation
chances. The higher potential remains around the mountain zones
Thursday night and Friday, then the chances expand out to the
valley/basin zones Friday afternoon into Saturday (continuing
into next Sunday). The 24-hour probability of measurable
precipitation (>=0.01 inches) heading into Saturday is around
50-90%, lowest in the deeper basin. The probability of wetting
rains (>=0.10 inches) is highest around the mountain zones
heading into Saturday at 40-70%. Wind remains breezy to windy
Friday, with gusts of 20-30 mph. By Saturday gusts between 10-20
mph are in the forecast and RH values are on the rise. So the
elevated fire weather conditions start to decline some. Highs
are forecast to be in the upper 60s and 70s Friday and largely
the 60s to mid-70s Saturday. /Solveig

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Sunday
afternoon there is a 10% chance of showers will be found near
the Canadian border with a 5% chance for showers to mature into
a weak thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE
SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions. There is low
confidence for lightning today with convection along the
Canadian border.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        81  50  84  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  81  50  84  51  80  51 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        77  48  80  45  76  48 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       85  56  87  56  86  56 /  10   0   0  10   0   0
Colville       81  42  84  43  80  43 /  20   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      80  46  83  49  79  48 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        77  54  81  54  76  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     85  50  89  49  85  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      84  58  86  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           84  52  86  50  85  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$