111
FXUS66 KOTX 031206
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
406 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weather remains active through the week.

- Periods of winter driving conditions over Cascade passes.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Several storm systems will impact the region through the week,
each bringing valley rain and high mountain snow. Mountain
passes could have winter driving conditions through the week.
Breezy winds across the Basin Tuesday and Friday afternoons.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Friday: Active weather is expected through the
workweek as multiple weather systems pass through the Pacific
Northwest, bringing several periods of rain and high mountain snow.
Models have come into better agreement for a surface low to approach
the Oregon coast on Monday and then move into western Washington
Monday night. This will bring the first round of precipitation of
the week to the Inland Northwest. Given the track of the low,
highest confidence (greater than 70% chance) for rain will be across
central Washington Cascades stretching northeast across the Columbia
Basin through north Idaho, with lower chances (30-50% chance) for
north-central Washington. As the low moves inland Monday night,
easterly flow into the eastern slopes of the Cascades combined with
snow levels 2500-3500 feet. This will support snow in the east
slopes mountains, with some uncertainty in snow amounts for Stevens
Pass. Currently, the NBM has snow amounts for Stevens Pass most
likely falling within the 2 to 6 inch range. Light snow (less than
an inch) may even fall in the upper Wenatchee valley
(Leavenworth/Plain) though marginal low temperatures (31-33F) may
limit accumulations.

A transient upper-level ridge Tuesday afternoon will bring a
temporary break in active weather. This is short-lived as a deep-
upper level low approaches the coast Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Precipitation chances begin to increase from south to north Tuesday
night as a warm front and an atmospheric river lifts northward. Deep
southerly flow aloft along with low level easterly flow into the
Cascades will support heavier precipitation totals into the east
slopes of the Cascades Wednesday morning until the trailing cold or
occluded front moves through Wednesday afternoon and shifts the
focus to the northeast WA and north Idaho mountains. Snow levels
will rise through the night to 6000 feet with snow transitioning to
snow at the mountain passes. Winds will be breezy out of the east to
southeast Tuesday night through Wednesday morning before shifting to
the south Wednesday night. Passing shortwaves Wednesday night into
Thursday will support lingering precipitation primarily in the
mountains.

Next round of widespread precipitation arrives sometime between
Thursday night and Friday morning though there are uncertainties in
the models on the exact timing. This system will likely have a more
westerly trajectory, favoring precipitation in the Cascades, far
eastern Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle. Models and their
ensembles are suggesting for a stronger cold front to move through,
bringing the best chances of the week for impactful winds. Right
now, the NBM gives a 50-70% chance for wind gusts greater than 40
mph across the Columbia Basin, Palouse, Spokane/Coeur dAlene area.
Additionally, this would bring lowering snow levels, especially over
the North Cascades. The NBM is currently giving Washington Pass a
50% chance for greater than 10 inches of snow Thursday night into
Friday.

Saturday and Sunday: Models are beginning to hint on drier
conditions this weekend with a large upper-level ridge building over
the west coast. /vmt

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A weak surface low will track into northwest Oregon
late this afternoon into this evening. Moisture out ahead of the
low will stream in across the Northwest with progressively
deteriorating conditions. Moisture will remain at mid to upper
levels with VFR conditions through the morning before ceilings
lower and surface visibility deteriorates and IFR conditions
with rain becomes widespread by mid afternoon into Monday night.
Winds will generally be light and from the east to northeast.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence
remains high for VFR conditions through this morning. Confidence
is high for widespread MVFR conditions in the afternoon
deteriorating further with IFR conditions being prevalent
overnight. The exception will be at the Lewiston Airport with a
probability of only 20% of seeing IFR conditions Monday night.
/SVH

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        45  36  45  38  52  40 /  70  90  60  70  90  80
Coeur d`Alene  42  36  44  38  49  41 /  80  90  80  80  90 100
Pullman        45  37  49  41  53  40 /  70  90  70  70  90 100
Lewiston       49  43  55  46  60  45 /  60  90  50  60  70  90
Colville       45  26  46  29  46  32 /  60  70  50  80 100  90
Sandpoint      42  32  44  34  45  38 /  80  90  80  90 100 100
Kellogg        43  39  45  40  50  42 /  90 100  90  90  90 100
Moses Lake     48  37  49  40  54  38 /  40  80  40  80  90  20
Wenatchee      45  38  47  41  49  39 /  60  80  50  90 100  50
Omak           47  32  48  38  48  38 /  50  50  30  80 100  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$