327
FXUS66 KOTX 191116
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
316 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier overall this week with slightly above normal
  temperatures.

- Active weather returns by the end of the weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A quieter weather pattern is forecast for the upcoming week.
Temperatures will be cooler, but still be above normal through
the week. A more active pattern is expected to develop by the
end of the weekend into early next week with valley rain,
mountain snow and breezy winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday: The area stays in a split flow until the
end of the work week. Shortwave ridging controls today and the
weather looks dry, with some morning fog and low clouds, but
otherwise more sun. Another splitting trough pushes toward into
the west heading into Thursday. That splitting takes most of
the energy south and very little left further north, but some
limited shower chances will return to the Cascades and eastern
third of the WA ID. By Friday the are returns to a more zonal
flow and the primary precipitation chances will be found around
the mountain zones in that flow. Highs largely in the 40s and
lows in the upper 20s and 30s.

Saturday to Tuesday, the flow remains more zonal and a stronger
jet noses its way into the area along the US/Canadian border,
vacillating along before a trough approaches toward the new work
week. Precipitation chances will be found across much of the
region Saturday and Sunday, save for the lee of the Cascades into
Central WA in the downslope westerly flow. The incoming wave
expands and increased the precipitation chances area-wide Sunday
night into Monday, before starting to retreat toward the mountains
again Tuesday.

Snow levels average between 5-6kft through Sunday, drop to around
4-5kft Sunday night night into Monday, then between 2-3kft by
Tuesday as colder air start to come in. This will mean largely
mountain snow and valley rain to start, but by Monday night into
Tuesday a rain/snow mix or even a chance for all snow drops to the
lowlands. Mainly Washington Pass will see impacts from snow
through Sunday, with around 2-5 inches possible in that 36 hour
period. Then more moderate snow will be possible Sunday night
into Monday at Washington Pass with maybe 4-9 inches, with
lighter amounts at other mountain passes. By Tuesday about 1-3
inches will be possible at Stevens and Washington Pass (less at
Snoqualmie) and 1-3 toward Lookout. Rain amounts away from the
mountain zones look light at less than tenth of an inch, with
the best chances Sunday night and Monday. Higher amounts are
possible in the lower elevations of the mountain zones, with a
tenth to a third of an inch. Temperatures will largely be in the
40s. Lows will largely be in the upper 20s and 30s through
Monday morning, then for Tuesday morning there will be more 20s
and some lower 30s in the L-C Valley and perhaps near the
Wenatchee River valley.

Looking a little further out again toward the Thanksgiving Holiday
weekend: there are some chances for light snow in the lowlands,
but the potential for anything too substantial will be limited to
the mountains. The better risk overall continues to be around
Thursday night into Saturday, as opposed to Thanksgiving Day
itself. Yet highs trend in most areas tin the lower to mid-30s by
Wednesday continuing into the weekend. /Solveig

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs: A weak mid level trough moving through this morning is
producing clouds mainly between 6000-9000 feet MSL, resulting in
VFR conditions for the TAF sites. As this wave exits and is
replaced by a short wave ridge this layer begins to dry out
through the day which should lead to some decrease in cloud
cover with VFR conditions persisting. Another weak system
approaches for Wednesday Night, producing more mid level cloud
cover which should again limit coverage of fog/stratus
development.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HREF shows around a 30% chance of IFR CIGS at
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KMWH through 18z this morning but given
satellite trends that numbers is likely too high. Overnight with
next approaching wave HREF shows near a 30% chance KEAT lowers
to MVFR after 04z. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        45  31  45  31  44  35 /   0  10  20   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  46  32  45  34  44  36 /   0  10  30  20  20  30
Pullman        46  33  44  30  45  34 /   0  10  30  10  10  10
Lewiston       49  37  48  36  49  38 /   0  10  20   0   0  10
Colville       45  26  46  28  43  31 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      45  31  45  33  42  35 /  10  10  30  40  40  50
Kellogg        47  34  47  36  44  39 /   0  10  30  30  30  40
Moses Lake     46  31  48  27  44  31 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      45  34  48  34  47  39 /   0  10  10   0  10  10
Omak           45  32  47  32  44  35 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$