809
FXUS66 KOTX 111802
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1102 AM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Early winter storm for the northern mountains from the
  northern Washington Cascades to North Idaho Sunday into
  Monday morning.

- Gusty north to northeast winds on Monday.

- Below normal temperatures Sunday into early next week with
  highs in the 50s. Low temperatures dropping into the 20s and
  30s by Tuesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
The weekend will bring breezy conditions and much cooler
temperatures. Saturday will bring showers across North Idaho and
Eastern Washington, with more widespread rain and mountain snow
developing on Sunday. Heavy snow with winter conditions is
expected in the northern mountains above 3000 feet late in the
weekend. Dry weather with fall like temperatures are expected
Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
...EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES TO NORTH IDAHO...

Today and Tonight: A closed low over northwest Oregon this morning
will track east today, getting picked up by an upper trough
passing through southern British Columbia. Increased mid level
moisture, and weak lift with these passing features will result in
an increasing coverage of showers, with the highest focus over the
Idaho Panhandle due to added upslope westerly flow. Snow levels
will be around 6000 feet limiting snow to the higher peaks.

Sunday through Monday: The forecast gets more interesting during
this period as an upper trough drops south out of Canada and
intensifies over the region as a surface low spins up along the
WA/OR coast in the left exit region of an upper level jet.
Increasing precipitation with the low, will combine with north to
northeast winds bringing cooler air into the region. Snow levels
drop to around 3000-4000 feet over northern Washington, and 5000
feet over SE Washington. For the North ID Panhandle, models drop
the snow level as low as 2000 feet which may result in wet snow
for areas such as Priest Lake, Bonners Ferry, and Sandpoint.
Several inches of snow is expected in the mountains of northern
Washington and the north ID Panhandle, as well as the Central
Panhandle Mountains which may impact travel over Washington,
Sherman, Stevens, and Lookout Passes. The heaviest precipitation
is expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday Night. Below are the
are the probabilities for snowfall thresholds of at least 2",
4", and 8" at our mountain passes

Mountain Pass    Chance of 2+"    Chance of 4+"     Chance of 8+"
Washington       90%              85%               80%
Sherman          95%              85%               25%
Lookout          65%              35%                5%
Stevens          75%              55%               20%
Blewett          60%              35%                5%
Loup Loup        80%              55%               15%

Circling back to the winds, the pressure gradient over the
region on Monday strengthens between a 1030mb surface high over
southern Alberta, and a 1002mb surface low along the Oregon
coast. This will bring gusty northeast winds especially in the
open areas of the Columbia Basin, and channeled north-south
drainages such as the Purcell Trench in North Idaho (Sandpoint
and Coeur d`Alene areas), and the Okanogan Valley. The NBM is
advertising gusts of 30-40 MPH in these areas. Early fall
outdoor enthusiasts should be prepared for snow and wind chills
dropping into the teens with this storm!

Monday Night through Thursday: A quieter pattern returns as the
low drops south over California and an upper ridge builds off
the coast providing a dry north to northwest flow over the
Inland NW. It will feel like fall as low temperatures drop into
the 20s and 30s for most of the region, and daytime highs in the
mid 50s to low 60s.

Friday: 85% of the ensembles shows another system dropping in
from the northwest but differ with the strength. 40% show a
windy and wet scenario while 45% show a weaker trough. Forecast
currently leans towards the weaker scenario but this will
continue to be monitored in the coming days. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Low pressure will move across the area today into
this evening, with increasing showers especially over the
eastern third of Washington and Idaho. A moist boundary layer
fueled by ongoing shower activity and upslope flow into the
Palouse (KPUW), Spokane-Coeur d`Alene corridor
(KGEG/KSFF/KCOE), northeast Washington (KDEW/K63S) and Idaho
Panhandle (K65S/KSZT) will keep low stratus and MVFR conditions
in place through the afternoon. MVFR conditions will continue
into tonight across these same airports. Breezy westerly winds
through this afternoon as well across the exposed areas of the
Columbia Basin into the Spokane Area and Palouse wit gusts up
to 15-25 kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate
confidence of ceilings below 3 kft and MVFR conditions through
the afternoon at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. The HREF model indicates
ceilings lifting late in the afternoon after 22Z with potential
for ceilings between 3-5 kft and VFR conditions into this
additional moisture into the boundary layer fromevening.
Moderate to high confidence at ceilings will lower again late
tonight into Sunday morning for these same airport terminals
with a moistening boundary layer from additional rainfall. /SVH

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        56  40  47  36  50  32 /  50  80  90  90  20   0
Coeur d`Alene  55  40  47  36  50  32 /  70  90  90  90  20   0
Pullman        54  38  46  39  54  30 /  60  90  90  80  20   0
Lewiston       62  47  53  43  59  39 /  60  90  80  70  20  10
Colville       56  29  48  36  51  20 /  80  90  90  90  20   0
Sandpoint      53  35  45  33  47  26 /  90 100 100 100  30   0
Kellogg        51  41  44  32  47  32 /  80  90 100 100  30  10
Moses Lake     62  41  54  40  53  35 /  30  20  60  80  50   0
Wenatchee      61  44  52  40  50  37 /  30  30  70  90  50   0
Omak           61  40  52  41  55  34 /  40  50  70  90  30   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning
     for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Western
     Okanogan County.

     Air Quality Alert until further notice for Central Chelan
     County- Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-
     Western Chelan County.

ID...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning
     for Northern Panhandle.

&&

$$