201
FXUS66 KOTX 171127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Building high pressure will lead to diminishing mountain
  showers and thunderstorms.

- Warm, dry conditions for the midweek.

- Weekend system brings thunder threats and gusty winds
  increasing fire concerns.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon and evening mountain thunderstorm threat continues
for Monday with smaller area coverage. Temperatures trend
warmer. A drier airmass moves in by the middle of next week.
pattern change at the end of the week will bring cooler, breezy
conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: The ridge continues to build into the Pacific Northwest.
It will keep most of the region under a dry, warming trend that
will extend into the much of week. Lingering residual moisture
and instability will bring weak convection during the afternoon
and early evening hours. Shower and thunderstorm chances are
less than the previous weekends. Best chances (10-15%) will be
over the mountain areas of the region specifically along the
Canadian Border and the Blues Mountains during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Basin is not expected to see much in the
showers or thunderstorms. Highs will be a few degrees warmer
than yesterday with less cloud cover expected. Temperatures
expected to reach into the 80s to low 90s.

Tuesday through Thursday: With the ridge expected through the
the middle of week, any chances of precip will diminish through
the period. The only chances (less than 10%) will come from
weak waves moving North to South along a deep trough East of the
Continental Divide. Ensembles are showing very little moisture
associated with these waves as the clip Northeast WA and the
Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures will continue to the climb a
degree or two each day. Highs will be in the upper 80s to 90s.

Friday through Sunday: Pattern change expected by the end of
the week, as ridge slides East and a Low pushes into the Pacific
Northwest. It will swing a cold front through the region late
Friday and Saturday For now, it will lead to increased precip
chances mainly over the mountains. Elevated fire concerns are
possible Saturday as winds will be sustained 10 to 25 mph range
with gusts into the 30 to 40 mph range. We will definitely be
keeping an eye as this time approaches. Temperatures will be on
a cooler trend as Saturdays highs will be in the 80s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the 24
hour TAF period with isolated MVFR vis/cigs due to smoke.
Confidence in visibility impacts is too low at this time to
bring TAF visibilities lower than 6SM for all terminals apart
from EAT. Smoke models keep EAT at MVFR for portions of the TAF
period from the Little Giant Fire. EAT can expect MVFR
conditions late morning/early afternoon as winds shift northwest
and increase smoke in the area. Winds will be mostly light.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate
confidence in MVFR for EAT due to smoke.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        90  59  88  57  87  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  89  59  88  57  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        88  53  86  49  85  49 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       94  66  94  62  91  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       88  50  87  48  86  48 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      85  54  84  52  84  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        85  56  84  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     92  58  91  55  88  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      92  66  91  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           92  63  92  60  90  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Tuesday for Okanogan
County, Chelan County, and Douglas County.

ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Tuesday for Lewis County
and Nez Perce County.

&&

$$