654
FXUS66 KOTX 172144
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
211 PM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions Wednesday
  afternoon and evening.

- Cooler with increasing precipitation chances Friday through
  the weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and dry with an increasing risk for elevated fire weather
conditions from gusty winds and dry conditions Wednesday.
Cooler temperatures and chances for showers increase late week
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tomorrow: Mild, dry, and breezy conditions continue today
and tomorrow as broad southwest flow increases ahead of a trough
passage. Fire weather conditions today and tomorrow will be elevated
to critical. Winds Wednesday look stronger than today with the
passage of a shortwave trough in northwest Washington. With a deeper
marine layer tomorrow, pressure gradients will be strong enough to
tip the scales for red flag conditions. High resolution models only
give a 20-40% chance of meeting these conditions tomorrow, but MOS
guidance is more convincing to me in this case. In that case, there
would be fairly widespread west/northwest winds 15-20 mph with gusts
up to 35 with RHs in the teens to around 25%. RHs will rise quick in
the evening as the dry cold front passes through, so conditions will
rapidly improve. Have upgraded the fire weather watch to a red flag
warning for portions of central and southeast Washington.

Thursday through Tuesday: Thursday is the last day with temperatures
in the 70s and 80s and dry conditions. By Friday, the big trough off
the coast starts to pivot towards the Oregon coast, which increases
our precipitation chances. Snow levels Friday night in the Cascades
drop to around 5500-6000 feet so cant rule out some light snow
totals around an inch above these elevations. The trough slowly
meanders towards western Montana by Sunday afternoon and eventually
weakens and we are in a broad northwest flow by Monday afternoon,
more or less ending the widespread chances for rain. As far as rain
amounts Friday to Monday, there is a lot of variability in the
ensemble guidance. There is a 25-50% chance of 0.25+" of rain
in central WA and a 60-90% chance for eastern WA/north ID.
Chances for 1+" of rain Friday to Monday are the best in the
northeast mountains around 40-60%. In the Washington lowlands,
there is only a 5-25% chance of 1+" of rain. db

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Some afternoon breeziness
with gusts up to 20 mph from KGEG to KEAT. Otherwise, mainly high
clouds over the area. Breezy winds return Wesnesday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
for VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        52  80  49  78  50  70 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  50  77  50  71 /   0   0   0   0   0  30
Pullman        47  78  44  73  46  66 /   0   0   0   0   0  30
Lewiston       56  88  55  82  55  75 /   0   0   0   0  10  30
Colville       43  79  41  78  43  72 /   0  10  10   0   0  40
Sandpoint      48  80  48  79  47  71 /   0   0  10   0   0  50
Kellogg        55  78  52  75  53  67 /   0   0   0   0   0  50
Moses Lake     52  85  49  81  51  76 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Wenatchee      58  81  53  81  56  73 /   0   0   0   0   0  30
Omak           51  82  46  80  51  75 /   0   0   0   0   0  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Foothills
     of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower Palouse  -
     Snake River (Zone 709)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-
     Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
ID...None.

&&

$$