690
FXUS66 KOTX 160718
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1218 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued thunderstorm chances focused over mountain areas for
Sunday.

- Temperatures warm back into the mid 80s to mid 90s by Sunday.

- Drier air returns midweek.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon and evening mountain thunderstorm threat continues into
the the start of next week. Temperatures trend warmer. A drier
airmass moves in by the middle of next week. pattern change at
the end of the week will bring cooler, breezy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: A strengthening high pressure over central Conus will start
nudge a ridge into the Pacific Northwest. It will start a dry,
warming trend for the region that will extend into the much of next
week. Lingering residual moisture and instability will bring weak
convection during the afternoon and early evening hours. Best
chances (10-20%) will be over the mountain areas of the region.
Basin is not expected to see much in the showers or thunderstorms.
Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with less cloud
cover expected. Temperatures expected to reach into the 80s to low
90s.

Monday through Thursday: With the ridge expected through the much of
the week, any chances of precip will diminish through the period.
The only chances will come from weak waves moving North to South
along a deep trough East of the Continental Divide. Ensembles are
showing very little moisture associated with these waves as the clip
Northeast WA and the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures will continue to
the climb a degree or two each day. Highs will be in the upper 80s
to 90s.

Friday and Saturday: Pattern change expected by the end of the week,
as ridge slides East and a Low pushes into the Pacific Northwest. It
is still fairly early to highlight potential impacts. For now, it
will lead to increased precip chances mainly over the mountains.
Ensembles do have winds increasing on Saturday which could
bring an elevated fire concern. Temperatures will be on a cooler
trend as Saturdays highs will be in the 80s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hour TAF
period with isolated MVFR visibilities possible due to smoke.
Confidence in visibility impacts is too low at this time to
bring TAF visibilities lower than 6SM for all terminals apart
from EAT. Smoke models keep EAT at MVFR for portions of the TAF
period. There is a chance for thunderstorms and showers
tomorrow as well, but chances are low enough to not include in
TAFs at this time.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in smoke and haze continuing to impact local terminals, but low
confidence in extent of reduced vis/cigs.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        88  57  89  57  89  57 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  87  57  88  58  88  57 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        85  51  87  52  87  49 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       91  64  93  65  93  62 /  10  10   0  10   0   0
Colville       86  47  87  48  88  47 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      83  51  83  52  84  51 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        83  55  84  56  85  54 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     89  58  91  58  91  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      88  66  90  67  91  64 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           89  61  91  62  92  60 /  10  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Tuesday for Okanogan
County, Chelan County, and Douglas County.

ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Tuesday for Lewis County
and Nez Perce County.

&&

$$