102
FXUS66 KOTX 150039
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
539 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued thunderstorm chances focused over mountain areas
  through the weekend.

- Temperatures warm back into the mid 80s to mid 90s by Sunday.

- Drier air returns early to mid next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A somewhat active pattern persists across the Inland Northwest
through the weekend and into early next week with continued
mountain thunderstorm chances each afternoon and evening.
Temperatures trend warmer through the weekend. A drier airmass
moves in by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday: The trough that brought afternoon and
evening thunderstorms to the mountain areas yesterday has begun
retrograding westward and off the PNW coast. This will result in
southwesterly flow, which will aid in keeping PWATs 100-150
percent above normal (0.9-1.2"). We will remain in this pattern
regime through the weekend and into early next week as the low
stays in place off the coast. Incoming weak shortwaves paired
with daytime heating and the added moisture will create chances
for thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Tonight, there is
a 20-40 percent chance of thunderstorms focused along the
Cascades and the ID Panhandle, and current radar does show
thunderstorms moving towards the Cascades. Main impacts with
these thunderstorms will be gusty outflow winds, localized heavy
rainfall, and possible fire starts due to lightning. These
impacts will remain similar through the weekend. While fire
concerns are elevated due to lightning and gusty winds, the
added moisture will limit any major fire weather concerns.
Chances for thunderstorms will be similar on Saturday, but will
be further confined to the Cascades and far SE
Washington/Central ID. Thunderstorm chances will be further
limited on Saturday as the low moves further off the coast.

Monday through Friday: Monday through Tuesday, the trough
begins to move back towards the forecast area. This will bring
more widespread chances of precipitation, though largest chances
still remain confined to the ID Panhandle. Thunderstorm chances
continue through Tuesday, then taper off as a warmer and drier
air mass moves in. Currently, cluster analysis and long-term
models remain in disagreement over whether we will continue
seeing a cooler and wetter pattern or transition to a warmer and
drier pattern. Roughly half of the clusters show much of the
PNW in a drier and warmer pattern to end next week, while the
other half shows us continuing to see lower heights. This will
depend on whether the low off the west coast strengthens or
dissipates. Overall: expect unsettled weather conditions to
continue with chances of afternoon and evening thunderstorms in
mountain areas through early next week. Temperatures will remain
very close to or just below normal. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs: VFR and localized MVFR conditions are forecast, with
the MVFR conditions largely from smoke impacts. The main
potential for smoke will be near the Cascades and deeper basin,
such as KEAT and KMWH. An upper trough will linger over the area
tonight into Saturday, bringing isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Chance will be found near the Cascades and
northern mountains this evening, possible near KEAT. Saturday a
broader threat of showers will be found but these will be more
isolated in nature. Some may pass any TAF sites.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in smoke and haze continuing to impact local terminals, but low
confidence in extent of reduced vis/cigs. Low confidence in
showers or thunderstorms at KEAT Friday evening and at all TAF
sites Saturday. This is the most impactful alternate scenario,
and would require amendments should any cells move through.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        54  86  55  88  57  88 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  53  86  55  87  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        48  85  48  86  51  86 /   0  20  20   0   0   0
Lewiston       60  90  60  91  63  91 /   0  30  40   0  20  10
Colville       42  85  45  86  46  86 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      46  82  49  83  49  83 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        51  83  53  83  55  83 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     56  89  57  90  58  90 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      64  87  65  89  66  90 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           57  88  60  89  60  90 /  10  10  20   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Tuesday for Central Chelan
     County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan
     County-Western Okanogan County.
ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Tuesday for Lewis and
     Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

&&

$$