140
FXUS66 KOTX 301153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
353 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder temperatures over the weekend into early next week.

- Light snow Monday night into Tuesday, especially in the
  Central Panhandle Mountains.

- Modifying temperatures and a transition of snow to rain late
  next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures cool to below normal over the weekend. A weather
system on Monday night will bring light snow mainly to the Idaho
Panhandle and extreme Eastern Washington. Temperatures will
modify and warm above normal late next week. Unsettled late next
week as well with snow transitioning to rain in the lowlands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday: The U.S. is under an amplified longwave
pressure pattern with high pressure in the eastern Pacific and a
broad trough of lower pressure center over the central U.S. This has
promoted northerly flow drawing in colder continental air in
the the Inland Northwest. The Inland Northwest is also entering
the backside of a passing shortwave disturbance were large scale
subsidence resulting in a decrease in mid level cloud cover.
Radiative cooling at the surface will result in an expansion of
fog over the Palouse northward. I don`t anticipate the fog to
push much further north than Rosalia this morning due to drier
air advecting south with northeast winds. Dry northerly winds
down the Okanogan Valley into the western Basin will also keep
these areas mostly fog free this morning. Sheltered valleys in
the east slopes of the Cascades and northeast Washington to
Priest Lake will also see fog developing. The Palouse region
will see dense fog through the rest of the morning and a Dense
Fog Advisory is in effect until noon. Temperatures below
freezing will also bring the risk for freezing fog and patchy
black ice this morning. People should be prepared for slick
travel and rapid changes to visibility with fog during the
morning commute.

A shortwave weather disturbance arrives Monday night. This
disturbance will track across as an open wave and will have some
moisture with it to bring the potential for light snow.
Precipitation typically favors the Central Panhandle in a Northwest
flow regime, and model guidance supports this. Model guidance has
decreased the amount of moisture with this wave and snow amounts
have decreased overall. The Central Panhandle Mountains will
see the potential for only up to an inch or two and Lookout Pass
only expected to receive up to a couple of inches. The same can
be expected over the Camas Prairie. Much of Eastern Washington
may only see a dusting of snow if any.

Thursday night through Sunday: This is when the model ensembles
begin to diverge a bit. There is general consensus for the ridge in
the eastern Pacific to experience some flattening and increased
moisture off of the Pacific to enter. There are differences in the
timing of a shortwave disturbance for Thursday night into Friday.
The 00Z GFS is much faster and wetter than the 00Z ECMWF model.
The 00Z Canadian is in the middle of the two. The NBM reflects
a solution that mostly resembles the ECMWF depiction. It
increases the precipitation chances through Thursday night. Best
chances with measurable precipitation likely (greater than 50%
chance) over the Cascade crest and in the Idaho Panhandle. Snow
levels will be starting out at valley floors, but then increase
through this event Friday into Friday night. A moderately strong
upper level jet with winds up to around 50-55 mph at 500 mb
will also push in with the passage of this weather system. This
will bring the potential for gusty winds with a cold front
passage around Friday night and linger into Saturday. Weather
conditions remain unsettled through the rest of next weekend.
Temperatures modify by then and will be above normal for early
December. Precipitation is expected to fall as valley rain and
snow reserved for the mountains. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs: Low clouds have become established across southeast
Washington and the lower Idaho Panhandle. IFR to LIFR
conditions look to persist at KPUW into Sunday afternoon. As
these clouds break, there is a moderate chance for fog or low
stratus to redevelop after sunset. KLWS is also experiencing
ceilings between 1-2 kft and will see gradual lifting to
between 3-4 kft. Sunday morning. Patchy fog will be present in
the mountain valleys of the east slopes of the Cascades and
northern mountains of Eastern Washington and north Idaho mainly
near water bodies. Boundary layer winds will be shifting from NE
to S/SW today with moderate confidence for the bank of low
clouds around KPUW to advect northward into KGEG/KSFF/KCOE.
Exact timing and how quickly conditions transition from VFR to
MVFR/IFR comes with low confidence.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence for low IFR conditions at KPUW through Sunday
morning. There is a 40% chance that low IFR to IFR conditions
will continue at KPUW with ceilings below 600 ft agl. through
the afternoon on Sunday. There is a 60% chance for cigs to
remain below 3k AGL for KLWS through 21z then probabilities
decrease to 20-30%. For timing of low clouds reaching KGEG-KCOE,
there is low confidence. RAP/NAM are significantly quicker
(01-03Z) than HREF (03-06Z). Confidence low for restrictions
impacting KEAT/KMWH outside very shallow, patchy fog. /sb

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        35  25  36  28  36  24 /   0   0  10  40  20   0
Coeur d`Alene  34  25  37  29  37  27 /   0   0  10  60  40   0
Pullman        35  24  37  29  37  28 /   0   0  10  60  70  10
Lewiston       39  28  41  33  42  33 /   0   0   0  40  50  20
Colville       35  19  35  22  38  19 /   0   0  10  50  10   0
Sandpoint      32  22  34  27  36  25 /   0   0  20  80  40  10
Kellogg        35  25  37  32  38  29 /   0   0  20  70  70  10
Moses Lake     38  24  37  27  38  24 /   0   0  10  20  10   0
Wenatchee      39  29  38  32  41  30 /   0   0  10  20  10   0
Omak           37  25  36  27  39  27 /   0   0  10  20   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until noon PST today for Washington Palouse.
ID...Dense Fog Advisory until noon PST today for Idaho Palouse.

&&

$$