888
FXUS66 KOTX 290004
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
504 PM PDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Valley rain and mountain snow showers through the week.

- Periods of light snow showers on the Cascade passes with
  minimal accumulations.

- Saturday is looking dry for Central Washington. Light rain
  chances increase over Idaho and Eastern Washington Saturday
  evening and night.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain off the coast through Friday then
eject inland over the weekend. Valley rain and mountain snow is
forecast at times through the week with periods of light snow
impacting the Cascade passes. The incoming system will bring
increasing chances for light rain Saturday evening and night
across Idaho and eastern third of Washington.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight-Thursday: A cold upper-level trough is carving
into the Northwest today. A leading shortwave passed through
the area today (Wednesday) and was responsible for the more
persistent rain and mountain snow showers. This shortwave will
eject into BC this evening with the main, and reinforcing low
digging southward along 130W just off the WA Coast. This will
allow the air mass to slowly moderate from southeast to
northwest and shift the main threat for light showers back into
the Cascades and northern mountains. Given the warming aloft,
shower intensities will be on the decline with minimal
additional snow accumulations in the mountains. Overnight
temperatures come with a moderate uncertainty. If the clouds
break across Central and Northern WA, temperatures will be
capable of radiating well below freezing and does pose a small
risk for patchy black ice Thursday morning, especially for
roadways within the higher terrain (~ 3000 ft). If the clouds
hold, temperatures will only flirt with 32F with a lower risk
for ice development. A saturated boundary layer also suggest the
potential for patchy fog and low stratus heading into Thursday
morning.

Friday-Sunday: There is good agreement amongst the ensembles for
the upper-low to remain anchored off the WA Coast through early
Saturday then fill and weaken while ejecting inland Saturday
night into Sunday. The position of this low off the coast does
not pose a large risk for widespread precipitation Friday into
early Saturday with highest chances for showers (30-40%) along
the Cascade Crest and 5-15% elsewhere. Snow levels will waver
from 2500-3500 feet in the Cascades so motorists should be
prepared for light snow showers at times if traveling across the
passes.

The threat for precipitation will increase Saturday into Saturday
night and depart to the east on Sunday as the system tracks
inland ushering a slow moving cold front from west to east. The
main threat will be across the eastern two-thirds of the
forecast area. Rain chances vary from 40-60% across North Idaho
and southeastern Washington Saturday evening/night and 15-25%
further west for locations like Ritzville, Republic, Colville,
and Davenport. Spokane sits around 25-30% with highest chances
after 11PM. Rainfall amounts look light and under a tenth of an
inch through 11PM for most areas. After 11PM, rain will increase
and become more steady across far southeastern WA and the lower
Idaho Panhandle where there is a 20-40% chance for rainfall
amounts to exceed a quarter of an inch. Dry and cool conditions
are expected across Central WA Saturday evening into Saturday
night. Winds Saturday evening will be light and generally under
10 mph with evening temperatures in the mid to lower 40s.

Monday-Wednesday: There is moderate confidence for any upper-level
ridge to build over the Northwest during this period. This will
promote near to warmer than normal temperatures, light winds,
and largely dry conditions. The caveat comes Tuesday with ~50%
of the ensembles indicating a few different potential outcomes
where a weak wave slips through the ridge delivering a chance
for light showers. By Wednesday, the ensembles re-align with
nearly all outcomes showing the ridge back in place. All things
considered, ridges in November can often lead to cool
temperatures due to the lack of mixing, especially following
precipitation. This will likely be the case for areas that pick
up over an quarter of an inch of rain over the next few days.
Fog and stratus can also be slow to burn off each morning. At
this time, confidence is above normal for minimal weather
impacts during this period. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Band of showers stretching from the OR/WA border to
the Canadian border is bringing periods of MVFR ceilings and
occasional lightning to GEG/SFF/COE/PUW. The showers are
expected to go through 03Z. VFR conditions expected for
EAT/MWH/LWS/PUW. MVFR ceilings expected to develop for
GEG/SFF around 12-14Z. COE expected to have low cloud deck
wavering between VFR/MVFR through the period.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions for EAT/MWH. Moderate confidence in MVFR
ceilings for GEG/SFF/COE/PUW. HREF has a 40-50 percent chance.
Sites could remain VFR. /JDC

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        34  50  36  50  33  50 /  60   0   0  10   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  35  49  34  50  33  51 /  80  10   0   0  10  20
Pullman        36  51  36  49  32  51 /  20  10   0   0  10  30
Lewiston       40  54  39  54  37  53 /  30  10   0   0  10  20
Colville       34  48  34  49  27  50 /  50  20   0  10   0  10
Sandpoint      35  47  34  48  30  50 / 100  30   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        34  47  33  50  33  51 /  70  10   0   0  10  30
Moses Lake     33  53  36  51  28  51 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Wenatchee      35  47  37  48  34  48 /   0   0  30  50   0  10
Omak           34  48  36  47  31  48 /  10  10  10  50  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
     Western Chelan County.
ID...None.

&&

$$