838
FXUS66 KOTX 300733
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1233 AM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures next week, locally near 100, with Major to
  locally extreme HeatRisk. Record high temperatures for
  September possible for multiple locations.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong ridge of high pressure will begin to build in this
weekend. Hot temperatures return with the ridge that will extend
through next week. High temperatures will climb back into the
upper 90s to near 100 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...HOT WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEATRISK NEXT WEEK...

Labor Day Weekend: It is shaping up to be a gorgeous weekend for
outdoor activities across the Inland NW. A deep low will churn
along the WA Coast allowing a ridge to pump northward into the
region. This will deliver about 2-3 degrees of warming each
consecutive day. Highs will warm into the 90s Saturday and
Sunday then 90s to lower 100s by Monday. Winds will be breezy at
times with gusts mainly around 20 mph. Direction will be from
southwest on Saturday then shifting north/northeast going into
Sunday before swinging around to the southeast on Monday. We are
monitoring a few weak disturbances rippling northward along the
Cascades and Western WA through this period. General consensus
amongst the ensembles suggest the impacts will be passing mid
and high clouds but given 50-150 J/kg of elevated CAPE as
midlevel lapse rates steepen, will need to see if this activity
will manifest into sprinkles or isolated elevated thunderstorms
with the main threat being during the overnight hours. At this
time, this comes with very low confidence.

One other caveat will be potential for hazy skies.  Under southerly
midlevel flow, smoke from active fires in Northern California
and Oregon will have the potential to lift northward into our
region. There is low confidence for this to settle to the
surface and the northeast winds on Sunday will assist but HRRR
smoke modeling does indicate this scenario. Smoke from fires in
north-central Idaho could also contribute to smoke and haze
around the Camas Prairie and L-C Valley. These fires are not
showing the same heat signatures on satellite as the fires in
Oregon and California but will be monitored closely for
potential air quality concerns.

Tuesday through Saturday: A multi-day heat wave is on tap for
the Inland NW under the influence of a strong upper-level
ridge. Temperatures warm another 1-2 degrees going into Tuesday
and remain hot through the week. Several record high
temperatures will be in jeopardy between Monday and Thursday for
afternoon highs and warm overnight lows. Consequently, folks
should plan for moderate to major heat risk as we go through
next week and take proper measures to avoid heat related
illnesses such as staying hydrated and seeking breaks in air
conditioning and/or shade during the hottest part of the day.
During the heat wave, some models indicate a midlevel
circulation getting cut off and drifting around under the ridge
around WED-THU. Not seeing much in the way of precipitation from
this feature but something to monitor as these circulations
tend to "float around" with little steering low and if the
moisture is poorly modeled, can lead to a surprise shower or
thunderstorm when encountering these hot and unstable
environments. /sb

The million dollar question as we close out the work week and head
into next weekend is will and how quickly will the ridge break
down. The suite of ensemble models show numerous variations how
this could play out varying from a gusty wind event with a cold
front to a subtle deflating/cooling to potentially the heat
lingering for several more days. Needless to say, there is low
confidence at this point with ensemble model clustering
advertising any of these scenarios between Friday and Sunday.
Ridge break downs often come with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms as well, something that will need to be monitored
closely as fuels will be near record dryness levels for areas
that missed out on the last few days of rainfall. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Residual showers will continue to decay over far NE WA
and N ID 06-08z with mainly high clouds passing through the
region overnight into Saturday morning. Afternoon heating
Saturday will promote cumulus buildups over the northern
mountains and North Idaho where appreciable precipitation fell
on Friday, there is a 10-15% chance for the convective columns
to grow deep enough for light showers early in the afternoon but
trends will be toward more stable conditions as the day wears on
and decreasing chances for showers. Main area of focus will be
far NE WA and N ID around Bonners Ferry, Sandpoint, toward Ione,
and Colville. There will be a subtle increase in southwest winds
across the Basin and into the Spokane Area with gusts around 15
mph.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions at the TAF sites. Low
confidence for showers in far NE WA and N ID. /sb

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        92  62  97  64  98  63 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  92  62  96  64  98  63 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        90  61  95  60  96  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       96  67  99  68 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       91  51  95  53  97  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      88  56  93  58  96  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        88  64  94  66  96  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     94  63  96  64  96  63 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      94  69  95  70  96  71 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak           93  64  96  67  99  67 /   0   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...Air Quality Alert until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for Lewis and
     Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

&&

$$