657
FXUS66 KOTX 181155
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
455 AM PDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy, warm conditions lead to elevated fire concerns today.

- Warm, dry conditions for the midweek.

- Weekend system brings thunder threats and gusty winds
  increasing fire concerns.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Increased afternoon winds lead to elevated fire concerns for
today. A drier airmass moves in by the middle of next week. A
pattern change Friday and Saturday will bring cooler, breezy
conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: The ridge is established over the region. Warm dry
conditions continue over the Basin. The chances for showers and
thunderstorms is less than 5% for the mountain areas with the
best chance being over the North Cascades. A weak shortwave will
move across the region this afternoon and bring an increase in
winds. The strongest will be over Southeast WA and through the
Cascade gaps. Southeast WA has 40% probability of gusts greater
than 30 mph. The Cascade gaps have 30-60% chance. The winds have
led to an elevated concern for wildfire spread in these areas.
Highs for the day will be in the upper 80s and 90s. Overnight
lows will dip 50s.

Wednesday through Friday: The ridge will continue through the
period and bring increasing temperatures through the period.
Highs will rise a few degrees from the previous day and bring
moderate HeatRisk to portions of the Basin on Thursday and
Friday. The Basin and valleys have an at least 60% probability
of highs greater than 90 degrees for these days. Highs will be
in the upper 80s to 90s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s
and 60s.

Late Friday through Sunday: The ridge slides East and a Low
pushes into the Pacific Northwest. It will swing a cold front
through the region late Friday and Saturday. It could generate
nocturnal thunderstorms with a probability of 10-20% across the
region. Elevated fire concerns are possible Saturday due to
mountain thunderstorms and dry, windy conditions across the
Basin. Winds will be sustained 10 to 25 mph range with gusts
into the 30 to 40 mph range. Thunderstorms chances increase in
the afternoon over the northern mountains with 20-30% chance.
Temperatures will be on a cooler trend as Saturdays highs will
be in the 80s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs: Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the 24
hour TAF period with isolated MVFR vis/cigs due to smoke. Smoke
is not expected to bring vis/cig reductions to TAF sites. KEAT
will be the one exception where westerly winds may usher in
enough smoke from the Little Giant Fire in the Cascades to
reduce visibilities to 4-5SM. Winds will increase out of the
west/southwest early afternoon through the evening across the
region with gusts of 15-20kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate
confidence in visibility reductions at KEAT due to smoke. High
confidence in winds increasing in the afternoon and evening.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        90  59  88  56  92  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  88  58  88  57  92  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        86  50  86  50  91  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       95  60  93  62  97  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       89  51  88  49  92  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      85  54  84  53  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        85  54  85  55  90  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     92  56  90  56  93  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      91  64  90  66  93  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           93  62  91  62  93  63 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for
Lower Palouse-Snake River (Zone 709).

Air Quality Alert until further notice for Okanogan County,
Chelan County, Douglas County, and Grant County.

ID...None.

&&

$$