714
FXUS66 KOTX 010548
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1048 PM PDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool temperatures, light winds, and 20-50% chance of light
  rain Sunday morning in southeast Washington and southern Idaho
  Panhandle. Light rain accumulations up to a tenth of an inch .

- Dry conditions Sunday evening through Wednesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid and high clouds bring a small chance of sprinkles and
showers to southeastern Washington and north Idaho through
Sunday morning. Drier air arrives Sunday afternoon and
conditions remain seasonal and dry through Wednesday. Mountain
snow showers return mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Wednesday: The upper level that was offshore finally
moves into northern California tonight, bringing clouds and
light rain to southeast Washington and the southern Idaho
Panhandle. Because the best dynamics are shifting south, the
chance for substantial rain tonight is decreasing. There is a
10-30% chance of 0.10 or more of rain through Sunday afternoon
for the Palouse, foothills of the Blue Mountains, L-C valley,
and Camas Prairie. Dry air filters in from the west during the
day behind the base of the shortwave trough, which will lead to
very sunny skies filtering into most of the region except
lingering low stratus in southeast Washington and the central
and southern ID Panhandle. There will be a risk for fog Sunday
night with clear skies across the region. Forecasting fog is a
low confidence endeavor but high resolution models are hinting
at fog development on the northern Palouse and chances
increasing to the north and west overnight. Monday through
Wednesday afternoon remains quiet and dry with near normal
temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Wednesday night through Sunday: A couple of waves will move
through the region mid to late week, bringing the potential for
rain and mountain snow. From 4 AM Thursday to 4 AM Saturday,
there is a 5-10% chance of 4+ inches of snow for Stevens Pass
and Lookout Pass and a 30% chance for Washington Pass. The Gulf
of Alaska longwave trough remains firmly anchored into next
weekend with shortwaves pivoting around it, favoring ridging
building into our area which would favor drier conditions in 70%
of the global ensemble. This does not mean it would be
completely dry, especially the Cascades. 30% of the global
ensemble resembles a dirty ridge with deeper troughing in the
northeast Pacific and displaced further east towards the Pacific
northwest. Overall, the next week is drier than we would like
to see for the start of November. /DB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Clouds have overspread the Inland Northwest and rain
has starting falling over KPUW and KLWS. There is a 20-30%
chance of reaching KGEG-KSFF by 08Z but confidence is low. Overall,
conditions are expected to remain VFR except for KPUW. Upslope
westerly flow into KPUW has lead to ceilings dropping to
LIFR/IFR earlier than expected. There is a 60% chance this
persists until 20z. With continued westerly flow, it would not
surprise me if KPUW does not clear out at all before
southeasterly winds increase overnight after 06z. Rain will
depart KPUW-KLWS by 18Z Sunday. Dry air will filter in bringing
sunny skies elsewhere.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in IFR ceilings for KPUW. Confidence remains moderate to stay
IFR through Sunday afternoon and evening. High confidence in
VFR conditions elsewhere.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        38  51  33  52  35  53 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  38  52  33  51  35  53 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        36  48  32  51  35  52 /  30  30   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  53  38  55  39  56 /  30  40   0   0   0   0
Colville       32  51  27  51  26  53 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      35  50  32  49  32  51 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  51  34  51  35  54 /  10  20   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     35  54  29  55  34  57 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  52  34  52  40  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           35  51  31  52  36  55 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$