553
FXUS66 KOTX 201750
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
950 AM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier overall this week with slightly above normal
  temperatures.

- Active weather returns by the end of the weekend.

- Colder temperatures to near normal for late November next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A quieter weather pattern is forecast for the end of the
week. Temperatures will be cooler, but still above normal. A
more active pattern is expected to develop by the end of the
weekend into early next week with valley rain, mountain snow,
and breezy winds. Temperatures will be colder next week closer
to normal. Potential for moisture moving in with the lower snow
levels around the Thanksgiving Holiday may bring travel impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: An elongated trough of low pressure will continue to dig off
of the Northwest coast today. Will see significant splitting with a
closed low forming over Northern California by this afternoon. A
frontal band pushing across will lose support aloft as the upper
level dynamics follows the closed low south of the region. Only
minor chances of rain is anticipated with a probability of around
30% for measureable rainfall (at least a tenth of an inch) falling
across extreme eastern Washington and into the southern Idaho
Panhandle. Any further north, and the frontal band will weaken to
the point that nay precipitation that falls will be so light that it
will likely just be in the form of some sprinkles. Clouds will
thicken today and we will see a lot of low stratus cover tonight,
but this next weather system moving into the region won`t give us
much precipitation.

Tonight through Saturday night: By tonight into Friday, higher
pressure beginning to build into the Northwest. The ridge will be
positively tilted and flopped across the Northwest off of the
eastern Pacific. A modest jet streak with winds around 150 mph
at 250 mb will be directed west to east across the Gulf of
Alaska into British Columbia (BC). Riding this jet streak will
be a weak Atmospheric River (AR). Thew AR will mostly remain
over southern BC Friday into Saturday. The Inland Northwest will
clouds, especially across the northern mountain zones, but
precipitation will mainly hold off until the cold front pushes
through after this period on Sunday. This period may also be the
conclusion of our mild October like temperatures that we`ve
been getting accustomed to. Winter may just be right around the
corner...finally!

Sunday through Monday night: An upper level trough of lower pressure
over Alaska and extending into the Gulf of Alaska will dig and pivot
westward sending across a cold front Sunday into Sunday night.
Moisture with the AR and colder temperatures advecting with
with the approaching trough will result in moderate snow
accumulations for the mountains, especially over Stevens Pass
and Washington Pass. Heaviest snow will fall Sunday night when
6-8 inches of snow is expected over Washington Pass and between
3-5 inches at Stevens Pass. Lighter snow accumulations is
expected over Sherman Pass with maybe up to an inch of
accumulation and Lookout Pass where up to a couple of inches is
expected. Winter travel is expected for Stevens and Washington
Pass when the roadway may become snow covered by Sunday evening.
Cold front passage will bring an increase to the westerly
winds, but there is a lot of spread as to the potential for how
breezy it will be. Winds are expected to pick up Sunday night
with the cold front passage, but we will likely see the
strongest gusts of between 25 to 35 mph on Monday mixing
increases and stronger winds mix down then.

Tuesday through Thursday: There is a lot of uncertainty in the
forecast for the extended. Confidence is high that we will see
colder temperatures down closer to what we expect for mid to
late November. Where the uncertainty lies is with how much
moisture we see, and model guidance seems to be shifting their
tune to periods of increase moisture around Tuesday into
Wednesday. There is potential for a second plume of moisture to
move in during this period along another cold front. The big
difference with this one is that temperatures would be colder
and snow levels much lower, and may be down to valley floors for
a lot of the region. Depending on the moisture content, we
could at least an inch of snow for a significant portion of the
lowlands. The probability for at least an inch of snow over a
48 hour period for Wednesday through Thursday night is around
15-25% for Colville, Sandpoint, Spokane, and Pullman. Mountain
passes would more likely see winter travel conditions as well.
It`s a potential shift to a drier trend that model guidance was
previously depicting, so we need to take this low probability,
but potential higher impact scenario with a grain of salt at
this point. Keep monitoring for forecast updates as we move into
a busier travel period next week with Thanksgiving come up.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs: A weak front limping through the region is bringing
increasing moisture at low to mid levels. Ceilings are currently
near 6-7k ft AGL but will be lowering between 4-6 kft AGL and
down to between 2-4 kft AGL with MVFR conditions developing at
KPUW/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE Thursday afternoon into the evening. Cigs
will continue to lower toward IFR conditions at KGEG overnight.
Clearing over Central WA will increase probabilities for low
stratus or fog development around KMWH/KEAT after 08z.


.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Confidence is moderate that MVFR ceilings will develop with the
stratus for KPUW/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. Model guidance is in good
agreement with a 50-70% chance for ceilings to lower below 3 kft
AGL at these terminals by Thursday evening. Confidence increases
that ceilings lower further Thursday night with a 60% chance
that IFR conditions develop at KGEG after 08Z. At KMWH, there is
a 70-80% chance for ceilings to lower below 1000 ft with only a
10-20% chance at KEAT. /sb

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        44  32  44  31  46  34 /  10   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  45  34  44  34  47  36 /  10  10  20  20  20  30
Pullman        42  30  45  31  48  34 /  30  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       46  35  49  36  51  37 /  30  10   0   0   0  10
Colville       46  27  43  29  45  31 /  10   0  20  20  20  30
Sandpoint      44  32  42  34  45  35 /  10  10  40  40  30  50
Kellogg        47  36  44  36  48  38 /  10  20  30  20  30  30
Moses Lake     47  29  43  29  44  30 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      48  32  45  35  47  36 /  20   0  10  10  10  10
Omak           47  32  44  35  45  36 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$