165
FXUS66 KOTX 081120
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
420 AM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost expected across the Northern Valley`s into Monday
  morning.

- Showers Monday afternoon through Tuesday thunderstorms and
  gusty winds Tuesday.

- Drier and warmer midweek through weekend with potential Heat
  Risk.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A system brings rain into the region Monday evening into
Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be breezy with showers and a
threat for isolated thunderstorms. The rest of the week will be
mostly dry, with warming temperatures. Widespread 80s to low
90s are forecast by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday: A low will be swinging through the
Pacific Northwest bringing widespread showers, gusty winds, and
isolated thunderstorms. The low comes in over Southwest WA
Monday afternoon and moves through Northeast WA Tuesday. While
Monday will start stable and dry, a warm front will press into
the Inland Northwest from Oregon by the afternoon. Moisture
associated with the warm front is around 0.7-1 inch (140-160
percent of normal). The region has a 60 percent chance for
locations to receive at least a tenth of of rain by Tuesday
morning, with the lowest chances over the central basin. The
cold front will swing through Tuesday and bring increased threat
of thunderstorms and gusty winds. Ensembles are showing CAPE of
100-500 J/kg with the afternoon instability. It is enough for
isolated thunderstorm threat with small hail, gusty winds, and
brief heavy rains. Winds behind the cold front will be gusty
with 850mb winds of 30-40 kts and surface winds into the 20 mph
range. Gusts are not expected to reach higher much higher than
the low 40 mph range. Cascade Valleys have a near 50 percent
probability of exceeding 40 mph. The low lingers through
Wednesday morning with light showers continuing over Northeast
WA and ID Panhandle. Increased cloud cover will keep the highs
on the cooler side and lows on the warmer side. Highs will be in
the 60s and low 70s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s.

Wednesday Afternoon through Sunday: Ensembles are showing a
ridge building along the coastline with a high centered 40 N,
140 W. It will keep the region a dry, with a warming trend
through the rest of the period. Highs will steadily climb a few
degrees each day to reach the 80s and low 90s by Sunday. Minor
to moderate heat risk impacts expected over the weekend.
Overnight lows will climb slower and end in the 50s by Monday
morning. Any chance of precip will be over the North Idaho
Panhandle Friday and Saturday as the ensembles push a weak
shortwave into the area from central Canada. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs: Clouds increase today, with mostly cloudy to cloudy
conditions developing today into tonight. Rain will develop
near the Cascades between 18-00Z, including KEAT/KMWH and over
the remaining TAF sites toward 00Z-03Z. VFR conditions will
start off the period and then MVFR conditions will be more
likely through the evening into the early overnight at most TAF
sites. Those MVFR conditions come near KEAT/KMWH around 02-04Z
and further east toward 06-08Z. A slim chance for t-storms comes
in late this evening into the overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence VFR conditions at all TAF sites through 00Z.
Moderate confidence in MVFR conditions developing between 03-08Z
tonight. There is a low confidence risk (10-15%) for IFR
conditions between 06-12Z at KEAT/KMWH/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. Low
confidence in thunderstorm developing at TAF sites late tonight.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        72  47  64  43  65  43 /   0  90 100  20   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  72  49  59  44  62  43 /   0  90 100  70  10   0
Pullman        71  45  59  41  60  40 /   0  90  80  40   0   0
Lewiston       78  54  68  49  68  46 /   0  90  70  30   0   0
Colville       72  42  63  36  68  38 /   0  90 100  80  10   0
Sandpoint      70  47  56  42  59  42 /   0  80 100 100  20   0
Kellogg        73  48  56  43  57  42 /   0  80 100  90  40   0
Moses Lake     73  46  71  42  72  42 /  10  90  40   0   0   0
Wenatchee      70  53  67  48  70  49 /  30  90  30   0   0   0
Omak           74  48  71  42  72  44 /  10  90  80   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for Northeast
     Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Western Okanogan County.
ID...Frost Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for Northern
     Panhandle.

&&

$$