644
FXUS66 KOTX 311128
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
428 AM PDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog overnight.

- Cool temperatures, light winds, and a slight chance (15-30%)
  for sprinkles or very light rain Saturday evening.

- Rain chances increasing 20-60% late Saturday night into
  Sunday. Light rain accumulations up to a tenth of an inch
  expected over Southeast WA and the southern Idaho Panhandle.

- Dry conditions Sunday evening through Wednesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid and high clouds increase Saturday bringing a small chance of
sprinkles and showers to eastern Washington and north Idaho in
the evening. Dry air filters in Sunday and conditions remain seasonal
and dry through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday and Sunday: The upper low offshore continues to fill in and
slide to the south towards the northern California coastline
Saturday evening. This will bring weak synoptic ascent into the
region Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing small chances for
light rain (5-15% chance over central WA, 10-30% chance for eastern
WA and north ID). PWATs increase to 110-130% of normal Saturday
afternoon and evening but dry air near the surface will only allow
for sprinkles to a light drizzle mainly east of Ritzville. Rain
amounts will be very light around a trace to a tenth of an inch
through Saturday night. Light rain continues into Sunday for
southeast WA and the central and southern ID Panhandle ahead of
drier air filtering in from the west. Clouds will erode in the late
morning and early afternoon Sunday in central and eastern WA and the
late afternoon around sunset in north ID. The chances of a tenth of
an inch or more of rain from Saturday afternoon to Sunday are around
20-50% south of I-90 and east of US-395.

Monday through Saturday: High pressure builds into the region Monday
bringing dry conditions and seasonal temperatures in the upper 40s
to mid 50s. This ridge will be slightly disrupted Monday night into
Tuesday by a shortwave moving through central BC and AB, bringing a
small chance for snow showers in the Cascades above 3500 feet.
Impacts look very minimal from this system. The ridge strengthens
behind this weak wave Wednesday but chances for precipitation
increase Wednesday night as troughing approaches the region. Models
are in some disagreement with the position and strength of the
placement of this trough but the overall message is there is a
signal for unsettled conditions to return mid to late next week.
Global ensembles continue to show a 60/40 split towards dry
conditions continuing but this will change in the coming days as
confidence increases. /DB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The Inland Northwest is under the influence of
southerly flow aloft as an upper-level low spins offshore
the Pacific Northwest. Models are not handling the current fog
and stratus particularly well. Current conditions are LIFE to
IFR across far eastern Washington with MVFR to VFR across north
Idaho and VFR in central Washington. Expect these conditions to
continue through at least 15-16Z as daytime heating allows
ceilings to gradually lift into an MVFR stratus and eventually
erode. Once the fog and low stratus are gone Saturday morning,
the area will be left with a layer of mid to high clouds.

Moisture increases across southeast Washington and the southern
Idaho Panhandle Saturday afternoon as weak weather system moves
northward. This brings a 15-30% chance of sprinkles to light
rain first at KPUW and KLWS after 00Z, then increasing north
into KGEG- KSFF- KCOE after 06Z. Ceilings are currently
forecasted to stay VFR through this period but models indicate
potential to drop to MVFR after 06Z, especially around KPUW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is high
confidence that fog and stratus will lift and erode this
afternoon, with lower confidence on the precise timing of
clearing. There is high confidence for VFR conditions through
the rest of the day, with low confidence for MVFR conditions at
KPUW Saturday night.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        52  37  51  32  51  35 /   0  20   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  52  37  52  33  52  35 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Pullman        47  34  48  30  48  33 /   0  40  40   0   0   0
Lewiston       52  42  53  38  53  39 /  10  50  50   0   0   0
Colville       54  27  51  22  51  25 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      51  33  50  29  50  31 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        51  36  51  33  51  35 /   0  20  20   0   0   0
Moses Lake     55  32  54  26  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  37  52  34  52  40 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           54  34  51  29  51  36 /   0  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$