640
FXUS66 KOTX 121801
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1101 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread smoke and haze will continue to impact the region.

- Red Flag Warning has been issued for scattered showers and
  thunderstorm chances Wednesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread smoke and haze will continue to impact the region
over the next few days, especially in the vicinity of and
downwind of regional wildfires. Periods of breezy westerly winds
and some slightly cooler temperatures continue Wednesday. A
trough skirting by to the north WILL bring some precipitation
chances to northern portions of the area Wednesday into
Thursday. Dry and seasonable weather returns Friday through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Thursday: The region will be under a deepening upper
level trough. A weak area of low pressure will settle over
northern WA, along the Canadian border, and bring increased
precipitable water and instability. Precipitable water amount
will be near an inch. Cape values will range from 200-500 J/kg
for areas north of Highway 2 in WA and the Idaho Panhandle.
Ensembles have thunderstorm chances starting around 11 AM and
lasting into the evening. Best chances are north of the Highway
2 corridor with probabilities of 20-40%. Th rest of the region
has less than 20%. Main concerns with the storms will be new
fire starts and gusty 35+ mph outflow winds impacting ongoing
and new fires. Brief periods of heavy rain could bring localized
debris flows over burn scars. Best potential is the North
Cascades with 0.2-0.5 of an inch. Confidence is low on cells
moving over these areas. Winds will increase from the north
later Wednesday down the Okanogan Valley to western Basin,
creating a more generic elevated fire weather conditions.
Showers and thunderstorms will calm overnight but return again
late Thursday morning. Probability is weaker on Thursday with
15-30%.

Friday through Wednesday: Friday will have some lingering
mountain showers as the trough is pushed out of the region by
a strengthening ridge. The region will be on the up slope side
of the ridge, allowing for warmer, less dry air to infiltrate
the region. Unfortunately, the pattern is not bringing
widespread beneficial precip to the region. Models are only
giving brief periods of afternoon showers mainly over the higher
terrains. The amounts are not expected to be more than a tenth.
Highs will continue to be in the upper 80s and 90s. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 40s to low 60s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs: VFR/MVFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours
with areas of smoke and haze. Winds will be breezy through the
Cascade gaps including at KEAT. A chance for -shra and -tsra
today and tonight, especially across the northern counties,
including places like Winthrop, Omak and Colville. Lesser
chances at TAF locations and primarily after 00Z for these
locations.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in smoke and haze continuing to impact the area terminals, but
low confidence in extent of reduced vis/cigs. Alternate scenario
near KGEG/KSFF/KCOE, low confidence risk for t-storms after
22-00Z. Outflow winds gusting near 20-30kts possible.


-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        86  54  81  53  84  54 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  85  55  80  52  83  53 /   0  20  20   0   0   0
Pullman        83  47  81  46  83  48 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Lewiston       89  60  87  61  89  61 /   0   0   0  10  20   0
Colville       83  44  76  42  82  44 /  20  90  50  10   0   0
Sandpoint      81  47  72  45  78  46 /  10  60  50  10   0   0
Kellogg        83  52  78  51  80  52 /   0  10  40  10  30   0
Moses Lake     88  57  85  58  87  57 /   0  20   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      87  63  85  65  85  64 /  10  50  10  20  10  10
Omak           86  57  83  57  85  57 /  10  50  20  10  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Friday for Central Chelan
     County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-
     Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan
     Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee
     Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this
     evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-East Portion
     of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National
     Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central
     Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone
     698)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-
     Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Methow
     Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains
     (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Selkirk Mountains
     of Northeast Washington (Zone 700)-Waterville Plateau
     (Zone 706).
ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Friday for Northern Panhandle.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone
     101).
     Air Quality Alert until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez
     Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

&&

$$