385
FXUS66 KOTX 141753
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1053 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot, dry, and strong winds leading to elevated to critical
  fire weather conditions today.

- Strong cold front from the north Monday delivering windy
  conditions. Brief damaging winds possible for the Okanogan
  Valley, northern mountains, and north Idaho Panhandle.

- 30% chance for blowing dust on the Waterville Plateau and
  Moses Lake area Monday evening.

- Much cooler temperatures Tuesday across Eastern Washington and
  North Idaho with blustery northeast winds.

&&

.UPDATE...
The HREF model indicates breezy winds with higher gusts of 40+
mph on ridges across northeast Washington through the night. The
wind advisory for the Okanogan Highlands and Northeast Mountains
has been extended through Tuesday morning to account for this as
the abnormal northeast wind direction with potential for gusts
up around 40 mph will bring a continued risk for tree damage and
power outages. The Wind Advisory for these areas now match that
of north Idaho running out through 1100 AM Tuesday morning. The
pressure gradient relaxes substantially through the day Tuesday
with winds expected to follow suit. /SVH

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Big weather changes will occur late on Monday as a strong cold
front moves through the region from the north. The front will
deliver windy conditions from the north and northwest, and
critical fire weather conditions for much of Eastern Washington.
This system will also deliver rain showers to the Idaho
Panhandle, and a chance of showers over NE Washington. Tuesday
will be cooler with breezy northeast winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monday: A potent July front will impact the Inland NW today.
There are many weather hazards that we are focusing on related
to strong winds. This includes: critical fire weather, tree
damage and power outages, blowing dust, choppy lakes, and
challenging travel conditions for high profile vehicles.
Residents of the Inland NW need to use extreme caution around
dry fuel beds as any new ignitions will have the potential to
spread rapidly.

Numerous weather highlights are in effect including red flag
warnings, high winds warnings, and wind advisories. Heat
advisories also remain in effect through Monday evening
signifying that conditons today will remain very warm and very
dry.

* Winds: Winds start off Monday morning increasing early in the day
  from the East Slopes, across the Basin, and into North Idaho
  from the west and southwest. Speeds will quickly be reaching
  10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Around midday, northerly winds
  will start to come down the Okanogan Valley and spread across
  the mountains of northern WA through the afternoon. During
  this time, winds also begin shifting toward more of a
  northwesterly direction over the Cascades and into the Western
  Basin. Speeds will continue to ramp up with speeds of 15-30
  mph and stronger gusts. The most critical portion of the day
  and winds will arrive late afternoon into the evening as
  convection begins to fire in southern BC and rain cooled air
  enhances the pressure gradient and northerly push. This is
  when the potential for sustained winds of 30 mph or stronger
  will arrive in Central WA and especially down the Okanogan
  Valley where gust potential is from 50 to 60 mph. Similar
  winds are expected to spill on to the Waterville Plateau. The
  lower Idaho Panhandle and portions of extreme E WA may
  experience a slight weakening of winds as the front is coming
  in from the north but near or shortly after 7PM, a strong push
  of northeast winds will enter North Idaho and surge southwest
  into NE WA. This will also be reinforced by heavier rains
  fall in far southwestern BC and could pack quite a punch with
  gusts 40 mph or locally stronger. After midnight, the
  combination of northern winds in Central WA and northeast
  winds in North Idaho and E WA will begin to consolidate and
  shift to all northeast winds going into Tuesday morning. All
  things considered, there are high chances (50-100%) chances
  for gusts of 40 mph or greater for most of our the northern
  counties of Idaho and Washington and across Central WA from
  Oroville to the Saddle Mountains. One area that is starting to
  concern me based on the latest HREF probabilities is in North
  Idaho and far NE WA where probabilities for gusts 45-55 mph
  have increased. This includes the Purcell Trench, Priest Lake
  Area, and Pend Oreille River Valley.

* Fire Weather Concerns: The combination of strong winds, hot
  temperatures, and low humidity of 15 to 25 percent will create
  critical fire weather conditions across a majority of the
  Inland NW. If you are not in a red flag, it will still be
  elevated and these areas were left out either due to winds not
  being as strong or anticipation of rain late overnight (NE WA
  and N ID). The surge of northerly winds will usher higher
  humidity values overnight into Tuesday morning but fuels will
  be slow to react and any new starts will have the potential to
  spread rapidly. In a rare situation, the Okanogan Valley has
  been bumped up to extreme fire weather conditions. There was
  consideration for a PDS Red Flag (Particularly Dangerous
  Situation) but confidence was not high enough to reach the 50+
  mph gusts for 3 or more hours. Needless to say, it will be an
  extremely challenging day for regional fire crews and please
  do your part to keep ignitions from happening.

* Blowing Dust: Winds of this magnitude spreading south onto the
  Waterville Plateau and around the Moses Lake area combined
  with very dry soils is likely to kick up blowing dust. Given
  we are not in planting season confidence in precise amounts
  and impacts carries lower confidence but wind speeds support
  some degree of dust impacts.

* Shower/Thunderstorm Potential: Several hundred joules of
  surface based CAPE is forecast for North Idaho and into far
  NE Washington Monday afternoon. The atmosphere may remain too
  mixed in the afternoon for cells to mature into thunderstorms
  noted by the HRRR and HRRR soundings but going into the
  evening and overnight periods, it looks more favorable for
  showers and t-storms to develop as the core of the upper low
  comes through. SPC currently has NE WA and N ID in a general
  thunder threat. Any lightning is a concern this time of year
  for new fire starts. Cells that develop should start producing
  wetting rains which is good news but prior to that, there is
  a risk for gusty outflow winds as DCAPEs start off around 800
  J/kg.

* Heat: The heat advisory is in place through Monday for much of
  the Basin, Spokane Area, and into the lower Idaho Panhandle.
  Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler but still nearing
  the century mark around Lewiston and into the Snake River
  Valley. Heat advisories will end at 8 PM.

* Impacts: If you are camping, heading into the woods, or on
  lakes please take these winds seriously and use caution where
  you are setting up tents. Consider if there are weakened trees
  nearby that could come down. Lakes are going to become very
  choppy with wind waves, especially in the evening. Plan
  accordingly for your safety.


Tuesday: For Tuesday, the region will be in a moderate
northeast to southwest pressure gradient with blustery northeast
winds. Temperatures will be cooler (70s to 80s) with relatively
higher humidity values (20-30%) but still dry enough to have
concern for fire weather. Any new fires will be wind driven and
pushed to the southwest. Winds on Tuesday will remain in the 15
to 20 mph range with gusts around 30-35 mph.

Wednesday - Sunday: Wednesday and Thursday will deliver less impacts
as the system moves off to the east and weak high pressure
begins to build on to the coast. Ensembles are starting to come
into better agreement for another trough Sunday into Monday as
high pressure blossoms upstream into the Gulf of AK. Several of
the deterministic models are quite deep with the system next
week and has the potential to bring periods of windy conditions
as well as showers and thunderstorms. Moderate confidence for
temperatures to warm Wednesday and Thursday then spread is 10+
degrees in temps thereafter with uncertainty of the next trof
depth and location. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A potent low pressure disturbance pushing across
British Columbia will ramp up winds across the Inland Northwest
today. Winds will increase from the west through the morning
into the this afternoon with gusts up into the 25-35 kt range.
Stronger winds will be felt across the exposed areas of the
basin including at all TAF sites (KEAT-KMWH-KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-
KPUW-KLWS). The cold front passage will be through the evening
with a wind shift from westerly to northerly. Convection and
precipitation along the front will enhance the northerly winds.
Strong winds will first be felt down the Okanogan Valley where
gusts of 45-55 kts are expected and these northerly winds will
funnel out from KOMK across KEAT-KEPH-KMWH through this
afternoon between 20-03Z. A bursts of stronger north to
northeast winds will also funnel down the Purcell Trench
occurring after 03Z between Bonners Ferry to KSZT-KDEW-KCOE and
out across the Spokane Area (KSFF/KGEG). North to northeast
winds will gusts in the 30-40 kt range late in the evening and
remain gusty overnight. Higher gusts will likely come with
convection that will be concentrated over the mountains of
northeast Washington into the northern Idaho Panhandle.
Thunderstorms will bring the potential for infrequent cloud to
ground lightning, brief heavy rain and erratic wind directions.
Blowing dust will be a concern for KEPH to KMWH with the strong
north winds late in the afternoon into the early evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
that VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites. Low
confidence on how smoke/haze will impact smaller airports from
Omak (KOMK) to Colville (KCQV) to Sandpoint (KSZT) early Monday
morning as smoke could be trapped in the morning inversions.
Confidence is low to moderate for timing of showers and
thunderstorms in north Idaho. Cells could begin to produce
heavier downpours around Bonners Ferry to Sandpoint Monday
evening with 20% for brief MVFR conditions. There is also low
confidence for impacts from blowing dust around KOMK to
KEPH/KMWH late this afternoon into the early evening.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        93  58  77  54  85  58 /   0  20  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  92  58  74  52  85  57 /   0  40  30   0   0   0
Pullman        90  54  77  50  83  54 /   0  10  20  10   0   0
Lewiston      101  67  87  60  92  64 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Colville       91  46  76  42  85  49 /  10  60  30   0   0   0
Sandpoint      88  54  70  47  81  51 /  10  70  40   0   0   0
Kellogg        89  59  70  53  82  60 /   0  40  40  10   0   0
Moses Lake     96  64  84  57  91  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      92  65  86  63  92  67 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           94  61  87  57  91  61 /   0  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin.
     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern
     Columbia Basin  -Palouse  -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-
     Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower
     Palouse  -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-
     Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-
     Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-
     Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
     Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Tuesday
     for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.
     High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening for Okanogan Valley.
     Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening for Waterville Plateau.
ID...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for
     Coeur d`Alene Area-Northern Panhandle.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Coeur d`Alene
     Area-Lewiston Area.

&&

$$