771
FXUS66 KOTX 140838
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
138 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers over North Idaho Monday, and then a chance
  of showers Central and Northeast Washington and the North
  Idaho Panhandle Tuesday

- 20 percent chance of thunderstorms over far southeast
  Washington into the Central Panhandle Mountains late Thursday
  into Friday

- Warming and drying trend Wednesday into the weekend with
  temperatures rebounding into the 70s-80s by the end of the
  week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered shower activity is expected for portions of the Inland
Northwest Monday and Tuesday. Then warmer and drier weather is
expected Wednesday through the remainder of the week, except for
a chance for showers and thunderstorms for far southeast
Washington into the Central Panhandle Mountains late Thursday
into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monday and Tuesday: The low responsible for the wet weather on
Sunday will rapidly eject east away from the region on Monday
(today). Some shower activity will linger over the Idaho Panhandle
otherwise drier weather is forecast. High temperatures though
will be near 10 degrees below normal with highs across Northeast
Washington into the Idaho Panhandle in the upper 50s to mid 60s,
while Central Washington down into the LC Valley will see highs in
the mid 60s to low 70s. On Tuesday another mid level wave drops in
from the north bringing an increased chance for rain showers, with
the highest chances across Central and Northeast Washington and
the Idaho Panhandle. With this system carrying weaker forcing,
precipitation amounts are expected to be light raining from a few
hundredths to a tenth of an inch, with local amounts up to a
quarter inch in the mountains near the Canadian border.

Wednesday through Sunday: The short wave drops south on Wednesday
across southern Oregon and northern California while an upper
ridge begins to nose into Washington and North Idaho for warmer
and drier conditions. On Thursday the low to the south nudges
slightly closer, with south-southeast flow bringing some increased
instability and shower and thunderstorm potential across the Blue
Mountains and Camas Prairie. On Friday the low moves slightly
closer again with the shower and thunderstorm potential expanding
north into the Central Panhandle Mountains. Next weekend the low
ejects away from the region, with high pressure favoring mild and
dry weather. All in all, a warmer and drier period for the
extended outside of the shower and thunderstorm chances over
portions of SE Washington into the Central Panhandle Mountains
Thursday into Friday. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Rain showers over SE Washington into the ID Panhandle
will continue overnight but will be decreasing on Monday as the
low pressure system exits the region. A moist boundary left in
the wake of the showers combined with low level upslope flow is
expected to produce widespread MVFR stratus with areas of IFR
conditions overnight into Monday morning across NE Washington,
ID Panhandle, and Palouse. VFR conditions are favored to
KEAT/KMWH although shallow fog can not be ruled out given
current small temperature-dew point spreads. As the stratus
breaks up and CIGS rise during the day Monday, all TAF sites are
expected to be become VFR in the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
that CIGS will degrade to at least MVFR overnight across
Northeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle as well as the
palouse. Precise restrictions carry lower confidence but with
HREF chances above 70% for IFR conditions developing at KGEG and
the pattern favoring lower stratus there is moderate confidence
in the forecast of IFR between 12z-17z. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        66  45  65  46  73  46 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  62  44  65  45  72  45 /  30   0  10  10   0   0
Pullman        64  42  66  43  73  44 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Lewiston       72  49  72  52  77  52 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Colville       66  40  65  39  75  41 /   0  10  30  10   0   0
Sandpoint      59  42  61  42  71  43 /  30  10  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        57  45  64  46  71  47 /  70   0   0  10   0   0
Moses Lake     69  45  68  45  75  46 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      69  53  66  53  75  55 /   0   0  30  10   0   0
Omak           71  49  68  45  76  48 /   0  10  50  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$