303
FXUS66 KOTX 251635
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
935 AM PDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasional rounds of scattered showers over the northern
  mountains this week.

- Much warmer temperatures for the weekend and early next week
  with a return of Moderate and Major HeatRisk by Monday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
This week will feature occasional weak weather systems passing
through the region. A chance of showers will occur most days
over the northern mountains and Idaho Panhandle, with a few
thunderstorms possible along the Canadian border. Warmer
temperatures on Wednesday then cooling back to seasonal normal
Thursday and Friday. A more significant warmup is expected heading
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Wednesday through Friday: The Inland Northwest will remain in a
progressive westerly flow aloft into the early weekend with several
weak weather disturbances passing through. For Wednesday and
Thursday, the best chances (20-40%) for showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be across the northern mountains where weak
lift, orographics, and modest instability (100-400 J/kg of
SBCAPE) support development. There will also be a 15-25% chance
of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the southern Idaho
Panhandle (Camas Prairie into Nez Perce County) in the
afternoon. Shower coverage will decrease for Friday. Relatively
strong low level onshore flow into western Washington will
tighten the surface pressure gradient across the Cascades (+8mb
to +11mb between PDX and GEG) with sustained winds 15 to 25 mph
and wind gusts up to 35 mph common in the lee of the Cascades
and the western Columbia Basin each afternoon. Further east,
wind gusts 25 to 30 mph are expected. Highs on Wednesday will be
slightly cooler compared to Tuesday with readings in the upper
70s to upper 80s, then will cool into the mid 70s to low 80s for
Thursday and Friday.

Saturday through Tuesday: Temperatures will trend warmer Saturday
into early next week as ensembles are in very good agreement for an
upper level ridge to build over the Pacific Northwest. The National
Blend of Models (NBM) shows widespread 90s to low 100s for
Monday and Tuesday with widespread Moderate and Major HeatRisk
across the Inland Northwest. Confidence in the weather wanes for
Tuesday into Wednesday with the spread between the 25th to 75th
percentiles for max temperatures increasing as 30% of ensemble
clusters suggest a breakdown of the upper level ridge. The
deterministic GFS and ECMWF models lean toward this idea, with
some hints of elevated nocturnal convection early Tuesday. Given
this is still far out, confidence in this occurring is low, but
it will be something to keep an eye on over the next several
days. /vmt

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue for all TAF sites with
mid to high level clouds passing through. Breezy west to
southwest winds will increase mid morning to early evening with
gusts between 20 to 30 knots.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
of VFR conditions for all TAF sites.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        83  56  78  53  77  52 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  83  56  77  54  75  53 /  10  10  10  10   0   0
Pullman        80  51  75  48  73  47 /  10  10   0  10   0   0
Lewiston       90  62  84  60  83  57 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       82  45  76  46  75  43 /  40  20  30  30  30  10
Sandpoint      80  53  75  53  72  50 /  30  20  20  30  20  10
Kellogg        79  57  74  55  71  54 /  10  10  10  10  10   0
Moses Lake     88  54  81  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      84  59  79  57  80  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           85  53  79  52  79  50 /  20  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$