


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
708 FXUS66 KOTX 070952 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA Issued by National Weather Service Pendleton OR 252 AM PDT Tue Oct 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry through Thursday. - Cold overnight temperature in sheltered valleys through Wednesday. - Unsettled weather over the weekend including the potential of light mountain pass snow and breezy winds. && .SYNOPSIS... Dry with chilly overnight temperatures and areas of frost early in the week. Temperatures will then increase slightly through the week. The weekend brings chances of unsettled weather and precipitation including snow in the mountains. && .DISCUSSION... Tuesday through Sunday: Temperatures will be mild in the 60s and 70s early to mid-week thanks to a weak nearly flat ridge and a shortwave trough over the Gulf of Alaska diving south and slowly retrograding off the coast. Models have finally come into greater agreement the the evolution of the low. It will scrape the northwest Wednesday off Vancouver Island bringing some chances for showers Wednesday night into Thursday, especially in central Washington where there is better synoptic support. Temperatures in the 60s and 70s are forecasted continue through Thursday. Rain amounts appear to be fairly light and west of US-395 between 0.01- 0.10". There will be a bit of a break Thursday afternoon and evening as the low retrogrades out to sea. A weak PV anomaly will pivot northeast of the base of the trough Friday and swing north into southern Washington by Friday morning, bringing more shower chances. Models still show another low forming in British Columbia and diving south into our region Saturday, bringing a stronger cold front passage, more rain chances and dropping snow levels through the weekend. Across all the mountains, there is a 60-90% chance of 0.25" of rain from Friday to Sunday. Those chances decrease to 50-70% for the Spokane area, southeast WA, and the L-C valley. As in most cases, the Columbia Basin has the smallest chance to see 0.25"+ of rain (15- 30% chance). The post frontal airmass will bring snow levels to 4000- 4500 feet Saturday night through early Sunday afternoon. Colder air aloft in the Methow Valley could allow for very light snow accumulation above 3000 feet, but the precip behind the front will be more showery in nature. From 5 PM Saturday to 5 PM Sunday, the probability for 2+" of snow at some of the mountain passes are listed below: Stevens Pass: 50% Washington Pass: 45% Lookout Pass: 45% Sherman Pass: 10% Monday and Tuesday. Cool and unsettled conditions will continue into early next week with potential for snow levels to reach near the valley floors in the northern mountain valleys especially Monday morning. /Butler && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: VFR conditions with light winds will prevail. The one caveat will be the potential for lower visibility at EAT with MVFR conditions due to smoke from fires burning nearby. Smoke will linger through the morning into the early afternoon until easterly winds pushes smoke back up the valleys and away from the airport terminal. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions across the region except near KEAT where active fires could result in MVFR conditions and moderate confidence that IFR conditions will occur at KEAT at times in the morning. /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 72 42 72 44 73 46 / 0 0 0 10 10 10 Coeur d`Alene 70 42 72 44 73 46 / 0 0 0 20 10 10 Pullman 70 41 71 41 71 43 / 0 0 0 10 10 20 Lewiston 75 47 76 48 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Colville 69 31 68 34 72 36 / 0 0 0 30 20 10 Sandpoint 66 38 68 41 69 41 / 0 0 0 20 20 10 Kellogg 70 47 71 48 74 49 / 0 0 0 10 10 20 Moses Lake 71 38 69 43 70 43 / 0 0 0 20 30 20 Wenatchee 70 46 68 48 67 51 / 0 0 0 30 30 30 Omak 71 42 69 46 72 47 / 0 0 0 30 20 20 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until 11 AM PDT this morning for Central Chelan County-Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau- Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County. ID...None. && $$