869
FXUS66 KOTX 060507
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1007 PM PDT Sat Apr 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will deliver warmer temperatures for Sunday in the
mid 60s to mid 70s. Rain will return to the region Sunday into
Monday morning. Monday afternoon and Tuesday will feature cooler
temperatures, breezy winds, and a chance for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through tomorrow afternoon: this weekend will see very mild
and pleasant weather due to an amplified ridge moving through the
area. Dry conditions and above average high temperatures are
expected both today and tomorrow, with values in the 60s today
and mid 60s tomorrow. With clear skies anticipated for much of
today apart from some very high cloud decks, overnight
temperatures remain chilly, with lows in the mid 30s. Low
temperatures will rise briefly on Sunday night, but this will be
short lived as the next system begins moving in.

Sunday afternoon through Wednesday morning: a trough will begin
moving into the area Sunday afternoon and will bring unsettled
weather back to central and eastern Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. Due to the amplified nature of the trough moving in, flow
will be from almost due south, bringing warm and moist air into the
region. This trough will bring widespread precipitation through
Wednesday morning, with the National Blend of Models (NBM) showing
50 percent chance or higher of most of the forecast area seeing a
quarter inch of rain. The only exceptions are the Okanogan Valley,
Waterville Plateau, and the Columbia Basin. The Cascades and the
Central Panhandle Mountains will see snow, with the NBM showing a
50-60 percent chance of 6+ inches at the highest elevations
through Wednesday morning. Snow levels will hover between
3500-5000 feet for the duration of the event. Because of the
southerly flow, the Northeast Mountains and Northern Idaho
Panhandle could see 4-6 inches of snow. The Central Panhandle
Mountains will see mostly light snow, with 2-4 inches anticipated
overall. Just behind the cold front, a shortwave trough will move
through the area Monday afternoon and evening. With mid-levels
moistening and warming, this wave will generate enough lift to
bring thunderstorm chances to far northeastern Washington and the
northern Idaho Panhandle, particularly to the Okanogan Highlands
and Northeast Mountains. Most long range models show 200-400 J/kg
of CAPE, and lapse rates are sufficient for thunderstorm formation
as well. The best chances for thunderstorms will be Monday
afternoon and evening, with lowered chances on Tuesday afternoon
and evening.

Wednesday morning through Saturday: once the precipitation ends on
Wednesday, ensemble clusters are currently in decent agreement on
zonal flow returning to the area before ridging sets in. This will
bring warm and dry weather back to the area for the extended period.
/AS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
The region will experience increasing clouds. Cloud deck is
expected to lower with increasing upper level moisture. Shower
activity is expected to begin near EAT after 01Z. Winds will
mostly be light and variable.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in
VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Moderate confidence on showers
for EAT for the end of the TAF period.

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  67  46  56  39  55 /   0   0  30  90  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  34  64  43  55  39  54 /   0   0  20  90  60  50
Pullman        39  65  45  54  38  53 /   0   0  20  90  60  50
Lewiston       40  71  48  61  43  61 /   0   0  10  90  70  50
Colville       28  65  44  56  37  54 /   0   0  40 100  60  50
Sandpoint      33  60  42  53  40  51 /   0   0  10  90  80  70
Kellogg        37  63  43  53  40  50 /   0   0  10  90  70  70
Moses Lake     36  72  48  64  40  60 /   0   0  60  60  10  20
Wenatchee      43  67  47  62  40  56 /   0  10  80  40  10  30
Omak           36  69  46  64  38  59 /   0   0  70  70  30  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$