851
FNUS76 KOTX 172246
FWSOTX

Spot Forecast for Crescent Road Fire...NEWA IMT 2
National Weather Service Spokane WA
346 PM PDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 PDT on August 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures will warm this week into the high 80s and low 90s by
Friday. There is a 30% chance of showers and a 10-15% chance of
thunderstorms Monday morning at the fire which may bring gusty and
erratic winds. Below are thresholds for temperatures, humidity,
and wind gusts for burnout ops.

Burnout window probabilities:
Mon - Temperature: 90% chance of below 85 degrees.
      Min Humidity: 100% chance of above 20 percent.
      Wind gusts: 80-90% chance below 15 mph.

Tue - Temperature: 40% chance of below 85 degrees.
      Min Humidity: 70% chance of above 20 percent.
      Wind gusts: 80-90% chance below 15 mph.

Wed - Temperature: 60% chance of below 85 degrees.
      Min Humidity: 70% chance of above 20 percent.
      Wind gusts: 20-30% chance below 15 mph (Gusty southwest winds
      around 20 mph in the afternoon).

Thu - Temperature: 50% chance of below 85 degrees.
      Min Humidity: 40% chance of above 20 percent.
      Wind gusts: 95% chance below 15 mph.


.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming sunny. 30 percent chance of
                    rain showers and 10-15 percent chance of thunderstorms
                    between 0500-1000 hours.
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of lightning.10-15 percent between 0500-1000 hours.
Max temperature.....Around 82. 90% chance of below 85 degrees.
Min humidity........27 percent. 100% chance of above 20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds 1 to 4 mph becoming southwest 4
                    to 8 mph in the afternoon. 80-90% chance of wind gusts
                    less than 15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the morning.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL. Inversions breaking around 1100 hours.
Transport winds.....North around 5 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 9 mph in the afternoon.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 2 to 4 mph in the evening becoming light
                    and variable 1-3 mph around 0100 hours.
Mixing height.......Falling to near surface around 2100 hours.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 6 mph.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85. 40% chance of less than 85 degrees.
Min humidity........23 percent. 70% chance of greater than 20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 4 to 8 mph in
                    the afternoon. 80-90% chance of gusts less than 15 mph.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL increasing to 7500 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...DB
Requested by...Sean Schroeder - PSC3
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2519914.3/OTX
.DELDT 08/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL sean_schroeder@firenet.gov,steven.vanhorn@noaa.gov