716
FNUS76 KOTX 122006
FWSOTX

Spot Forecast for Upper Smith...USFS
National Weather Service Spokane WA
106 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 PDT on August 13.

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PM PDT THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

209:

On Wednesday

Cumulus buildups in the afternoon with the chances for showers
increasing to 60 percent in the afternoon, and chances for
thunderstorms increasing to 40 percent. Any storms over or near
the fire will bring a threat for gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph.
A backdoor cold front to bring northeast winds with gusts up to
40 mph near 1700 PDT. Rain amounts on the fire carry high uncertainty
and depend on track of thunderstorms. Rain amounts up to a quarter
inch. Afternoon temperatures in the 60s and 70s, locally near 80
for lowest elevations of fire.

Rain showers Thursday with cooler temperatures and high humidity.
Breezy northeast winds continue.

Spot Discussion:

Showers are likely along with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms
containing brief heavy rain and gusty winds on Thursday.  Cooler
temperatures and increased relative humidity will occur on Thursday
as well as winds remain out of the northeast through the day, and
into Friday morning.  There is a 90% chance of rain amounts exceeding
a quarter inch on the fire by 5 PM PDT Thursday, and a 30% chance of
rain amounts exceeding a half inch.


If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
***************************************************************
Forecasts for 20 foot wind speeds (valleys and ridge tops) are
10 minute averages reflecting RAWS wind.
***Ventilation Index is derived from transport wind
   multiplied by the mixing height divided by 100.
   Categories: low (< 200), moderate (200-500),
   high (500-800), and very high (> 800).
***************************************************************

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely in the
                    morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms through
                    the day. Chance of rain showers in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................60 percent.
Chance of lightning.20 percent.
Max temperature.....55-62 ridges, 68-73 valley bottoms.
Min humidity........60-70 percent ridges, 50-60 percent valley
                    bottoms.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 12 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL increasing to 3500 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 11 mph.
Ventilation Index...Moderate (335).

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Slight chance of rain showers overnight.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of lightning.5 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 3 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......Falling to near surface by 2100 PDT.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 10 mph.
Ventilation Index...Moderate (264) decreasing to low (34)
                    overnight.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain showers in
                    the morning.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of lightning.10 percent.
Max temperature.....60-67 ridges, 74-79 valley bottoms.
Min humidity........50-60 percent ridges, 40-50 percent valley
                    bottoms.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 3 to 7 mph in the morning becoming
                    light and variable 1 to 3 mph.
Mixing height.......Near surface through 0800 increasing to 5500 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Ventilation Index...Moderate (277).

$$
Forecaster...JW
Requested by...David Pearson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2619090.7/OTX
.DELDT 08/12/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david_pearson@firenet.gov,IDCDC@firenet.gov,2026.uppersmith.plans@firenet.gov