561
FXUS64 KOUN 201857
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1257 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1210 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall
continue into this evening; large hail up to 2 inches diameter and
gusty winds are the main hazards.

- Another round of rainfall is likely on Sunday into Monday
morning along with a risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding.

- Turning cooler towards middle of next week with low
temperatures near the freezing mark

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

The approaching upper trough has increased in forward speed, and is
now seen on water vapor imagery centered over western New Mexico.
Radar mosaic shows widespread rainfall and thunderstorms
occurring over west-central and north-central Texas. This
precipitation shield is currently entering southern portions of
our CWA and will continue to lift northeastward over the next
several hours with strong to severe storms still possible over
south-central into southeastern Oklahoma this afternoon. In
addition, a rather narrow line of showers and thunderstorms
continues to lift across central Oklahoma near the quasi-
stationary front. Thus far, storms have remained below severe
thresholds with small hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph.

As a H500 jet maxima streams northeastward towards western
Oklahoma and western north Texas ahead of the main trough, a
developing (and weak) surface low will lift from far west Texas
and towards the eastern Texas panhandle this afternoon and
evening. Another area of strong to severe storm potential (perhaps
more impactful and longer-lasting than the original SE Oklahoma
area) will be across portions of northwest, western Oklahoma and
adjacent north Texas as strong dynamic lift occurs near the
quasi-stationary frontal zone and surface low. Moderate
instability, combined with increasing wind shear and steepening
lapse rates, could lead to large hail production (perhaps as
large as 2 inches in diameter).

Given the proximity of the quasi-stationary warm front with the
surface low and approaching pacific front (pseudo-dry line),
combined with increasing shear and 0-3km CAPE above 100 J/kg,
there is also a very low tornado risk (QLCS-ish) with this
activity that could continue into the early evening hours
(particularly over parts of northwest into far western Oklahoma).

It remains uncertain how far eastward the line of showers/storms
will advance with the loss of daytime heating. There is some
indication that a line of precipitation could reach the I-35
corridor late evening but there is considerable doubt on whether
these will even have thunder by this time. Things look mostly dry
area-wide after midnight.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

The upper trough crosses Kansas and pushes a weak cold front into
the area on Friday, though conditions will remain dry.
Temperatures are anticipated to be just a few degrees cooler than
today over northwest Oklahoma.

Shortwave ridging will keep conditions dry into Saturday with
mild daytime temperatures. Overnight lows will be chilly (Friday
night and Saturday night) as they drop into the 30s and 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1151 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

We don`t have long to wait for our next storm system. Height falls
ahead of the next trough/cutoff low will begin as early as Sunday
morning. Current global model guidance takes that cutoff low through
Kansas - a pretty favorable track for precipitation across the
southern and eastern portions of the area especially with a Pacific
frontal passage, similar to what we are seeing today. We`ll have to
monitor, but the 1-2 punch could be enough for some flooding
concerns to increase by the end of the weekend.

Rain continues on into Monday as the second low ejects to our north.
This time, the Pacific front that will bring rain chances to an end
is likely to pass through Monday night and leave us drier for the
day on Tuesday. After a multi-week run of temperatures remaining
above freezing, it finally looks like we will see overnight lows
drop down into that range by the middle of next week.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

An upper storm system will continue to move across the Southern
Plains with periods of TSRA with reduced ceilings and visibilities
in rain resulting in periods of MVFR to IFR categories at least
through 01Z. After 01Z could see ceilings further lower with rain
showers to an IFR category across many of our terminals at least
through 11-14Z then improving to a VFR category.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  55  68  45  60 /  60   0   0   0
Hobart OK         48  69  41  64 /  60   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  53  72  44  67 /  40   0   0   0
Gage OK           44  62  38  62 /  80   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     56  67  44  60 /  80   0   0   0
Durant OK         61  75  49  67 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...68