789
FXUS64 KOUN 121140
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
640 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 635 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Heat wave continues with dangerous heat each afternoon.

- Elevated fire weather across parts of western Oklahoma on
  Wednesday and Thursday, and potentially through the weekend.

- Scattered thunderstorms possible in northwest Oklahoma Thursday
  afternoon with gusty winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday night)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

More of the same this afternoon as the subtropical ridge holds
steady over the area for at least one more day. Surface troughing
across the central Plains will induce a decent pressure gradient and
bring breezy south-southwest winds back across much of the area.
This will do two things:

A) Encourage widespread downslope warming, which combined with
drying soils and the strength of the ridge will push air
temperatures between 101 and 108.

B) Push us into the lower end of the wind/RH tiers for elevated fire
weather in northwest Oklahoma once again, where RH should approach
and in places drop below 20%.

Fire/heat recovery overnight will be slow as the prolonged heat wave
takes its toll on the land-atmosphere feedback process. Low
temperatures will get no cooler than the upper 70s area-wide, and a
rather widespread bout of 80-83 lows is likely from the OKC metro
northward.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

While we have had a lot of really hot days recently, Thursday could
end up being one for the record books across much of the area. The
immediate cause for this will be a weakening/southeastward shift of
the upper-level ridge, which will allow the Colorado surface low to
migrate eastward into Kansas and become quite strong for this time
of year (nearly 1,000 mb). That will strengthen surface winds to as
high as 25 mph sustained (with gusts in western Oklahoma in the 30-
35 mph range) during the afternoon. That will make tomorrow, in
effect, a worse version of today. Our current forecast calls for air
temperatures to reach 110 degrees in the vicinity of the Great Salt
Plains and the Cimarron River bottoms, with widespread 103-108
degree highs elsewhere. The Heat Advisory that is in effect for
today continues through tonight and right into tomorrow (and Friday,
for that matter), but portions of it may need to be upgraded to an
Extreme Heat Warning if a more widespread area of 110+ degree air
temperatures seems likely.

Simultaneously, those hotter air temperatures will correspond to a
broader area of sub-20 RH across northwest and west central
Oklahoma. Given that RH has generally been the driver of fire
weather severity over the last week, there is quite a bit of
sensitivity here and the difference between an RH of 15% vs 22% is a
pretty big one. It wouldn`t be surprising to see an area of near-
critical fire weather where the strongest southwesterly "blowtorch"
winds develop south of the low. Given the fuel state, this would
potentially necessitate a Red Flag Warning for parts of western
Oklahoma.

But wait, we`re not done yet! While it will be extremely hot and
pretty dry, the boundary layer will mix so much that 1,000-2,000
J/kg of SBCAPE develop. Since the ridge will be sliding
southeastward and a weak disturbance looks to move northward across
the high plains, that will likely encourage scattered, high-based
thunderstorm development from the panhandles eastward into northwest
Oklahoma during the afternoon. It will probably come as little
surprise that with such a well-mixed and hot environment, DCAPE
values from 1,600 to 2,000 J/kg are expected. That means that any
sufficiently strong thunderstorm will have the capability to produce
wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, and perhaps as high as 80 mph. This
area of storm potential overlaps with the area of fire weather
concern and could play a factor in containing any fire starts, as
well.

Friday won`t be quite as hot as the ridge continues to weaken and
shift southeastward. "Not quite as hot" in the context of this heat
wave is still 10 or so degrees hotter than normal with widespread
temperatures in the 101-106 range. We probably won`t see a need for
Extreme Heat Warnings, but the Heat Advisory does run continuously
through 8 pm Friday for good reason. There`s a slightly weaker
signal for storms in northwest Oklahoma on Friday than Thursday, but
it bears watching as we approach the CAM range.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Still no real evidence of any cooler or wetter weather in the long-
range period. Troughing across the West Coast remains through the
early part of next week, but with the ridge centered over the Gulf
Coast we will likely remain on the periphery/just outside of any
southwesterly flow aloft and rain chances. While heat similar to
Thursday doesn`t look likely to recur, air temperatures should still
get up into the 100s across the entire area on most days. Fire
weather will also likely be problematic at least one, if not all, of
the days in the long term, and that pattern will continue until the
moment we get a good soaking rain again.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions once again today, with pretty much the same plan as
yesterday. For the next few hours, KWWR and KCSM could see some
LLWS, and southerly winds just off the surface are blowing around
40 knots. As the sun comes up, the wind difference will begin to
even out, as mixing begins to occur. Surface winds will then
increase to 12-18 knots for the most part, with gusts increasing
through the heat of the day. Other than a few cumulus clouds
during the afternoon hours, the only clouds will be cirrus
advancing from a few showers in SW Kansas.

Fox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 101  79 103  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK        104  80 106  79 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 105  79 106  78 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          105  78 107  76 /   0   0  20  30
Ponca City OK    104  80 105  80 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK        103  78 103  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...21