071
FXUS64 KOUN 081030
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
530 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- Ongoing heatwave continues through Wednesday with triple digit
  heat indices and lows well above normal.

- Cooler temperatures and scattered to numerous storms expected
  late Wednesday into Thursday.

- Heat tries to rebound this weekend with low rain chances each
  day.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Copy / paste the last few days as our prolonged heat continues
with lows in the mid to upper 70s and triple digit highs. 105-110
heat indices spread a bit farther today, driven by increased
moisture. The greatest heat impact will be southeast Oklahoma
where we will be near Extreme Heat criteria (heat indices of 110).
Heat indices will be a tad lower (100-105) in western Oklahoma
due to drier air.

Just like previous days, we may see a few isolated diurnally
driven showers / storms in southeast Oklahoma again this
afternoon (10% PoPs).

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Our prolonged heat wave will continue one more day into Wednesday
before we start to see some relief from a front approaching later
in the day. There is some uncertainty in northwest Oklahoma due
to potential afternoon storms and cloud cover, but confidence
remains high for persistent heat across the rest of the forecast
area with similar heat indices to previous days.

A broken line of showers and storms is expected to fire along the
front Wednesday afternoon as it enters northwest Oklahoma. This
scattered convection will gradually spread southward through the
evening and overnight. Weak shear will limit storm organization,
but a few strong to severe gusts cannot be ruled out during the
afternoon with modest instability in place. Showers will likely
linger into Thursday morning with some scattered redevelopment
possible Thursday afternoon.

Areas north of I-40 will have a chance for some beneficial
rainfall during this Wednesday-Thursday period with 0.25 inch
exceedance probabilities ranging from 40% in northwest Oklahoma to
80% in north central Oklahoma. Probabilities drop off as you move
farther south with areas along the Red River only showing 10-20%
chance of 0.25 inches or greater. With the scattered nature of
this event, expect rainfall amounts to be fairly spotty.

Thursday will also bring long awaited relief from the heat for
most of the forecast area (to varying degrees). North of I-40,
we`re looking at 40-70% chance of sub 90 degree temperatures. For
Oklahoma City (50% probability), this would be the first sub 90
degree day we`ve had since July 17th. South of I-40, we can use 95
degrees as our reference number with 20-70% chances (diminishing
north to south). North Texas and areas along the Red River will
still have a 50% chance of reaching 100 degrees, depending on how
far south convection can push this cold front. That said, with the
uncertainties in frontal progression as well as potential rainfall
and cloud cover, ensemble spread is high across the forecast area
for high temperatures.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Ridging will continue to exert its influence over the weekend,
resulting in a rebound of temperatures. Interquartile ranges
suggest 90s to lower 100s (with the warmest temperatures farther
south). Targeted heat advisories may be needed, but widespread
advisories look unlikely.

The ridge leaves room for a few shortwaves to ride around the
periphery, keeping 10-30% chances for rain in our area over the
weekend. A few deterministic models depict an overnight MCS during
this time period.

Beyond Sunday, confidence drops significantly. The interquartile
spread for high temperatures increases to 15 to 25 degrees as
models diverge on the potential approach of another cold front.
Warmer solutions (due to stronger ridging) appear to be the more
likely scenario, but alternate scenarios (10-20% probability)
could bring substantial cooling (highs in the 70s and 80s
areawide).

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the upcoming period. Patchy
diurnal cumulus, an occasionally gusty south-southeasterly wind
and a very low chance for brief showers/storms across
southeastern Oklahoma are expected on Tuesday.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 101  78 100  74 /   0   0   0  60
Hobart OK        102  78 103  75 /   0   0   0  40
Wichita Falls TX 103  78 103  76 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK          102  75  98  69 /   0   0  50  80
Ponca City OK    102  77 102  70 /   0   0  40  90
Durant OK        102  76 101  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013-
     017>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...09