691
FXUS64 KOUN 121029
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
529 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 526 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Remaining unseasonably hot through Tuesday, with cooler/more
  "fall-like" temperatures later in the week and weekend.

- An active weather pattern arrives on Tuesday and continues
  through at least Thursday. Potential for strong-severe storms
  and heavy rainfall/flooding exists.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Our recent 8-day period of hot, dry and low-impact weather will
draw to a close today. Early morning water vapor imagery captures
a high-amplitude upper trough, along with several embedded
disturbances, located upstream across the southwestern corner of
the CONUS. While this pattern will eventually yield increased
weather impact/concern for us, it`ll remain just out of reach
today.

We will continue to see afternoon temperatures warm to around 90
degrees across the region with an occasionally gusty (up to 30-35
mph) southwesterly wind.

Despite another afternoon of hot and windy conditions, continued
poleward flux of richer moisture across the area will prevent
relative humidity from falling much below ~35-45%, precluding
greater fire weather concern. Still be mindful if you plan
activity with open flame during the peak windy period today.

While nearly all locations will remain dry today, there is
conditional/very low (10%) potential for a thunderstorm or two
later this evening across far northwestern Oklahoma. With minimal
synoptic support (i.e., delayed ascent/rising heights), it is
likely that the brunt of storm activity remains confined closer
to the surface trough axis across the western/central Texas
Panhandle.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

An active period, featuring potential for multiple hazards, arrives
by Tuesday afternoon and continues for the better part of the
following 48 hours. A strengthening/anticyclonically curved
subtropical jet and phasing upper trough still look poised to
crawl eastward during the period. In addition, both hi-res and
global computer model guidance depicts potential for the passage
of multiple lead/embedded upper systems, each with potential to
instigate periods of rain and thunderstorms across the area.

The first such system looks to move eastward across the Southern
High Plains on Tuesday evening. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to result, focused from the Texas Panhandle into northern
and western Oklahoma and western-north Texas. An unseasonably
warm and moist boundary layer coupled with increasing mid-level
wind fields will likely yield at least a few strong-severe
thunderstorms on Thursday evening across the aforementioned areas.
Damaging wind gusts will likely be the most common severe hazard,
though large hail cannot be discounted if more cellular
structures emerge and are maintained. The risk for a tornado or
two is less certain (likely), though will be closely monitored
over coming updates given expectation for a modest increase in
low-level flow towards sunset.

A renewed - or possibly concurrent - round of rain and storms is
likely overnight into Wednesday morning, originating across the
Texas Panhandle and spreading northeastward into western and
northern Oklahoma. Once again, some limited strong-severe storm
risk and increasing concern for locally heavy rainfall is
currently forecast by this time.

Wednesday already has the hallmarks of being a complicated (and
potentially high-impact for some) forecast scenario across the
region. Aforementioned upper features will continue their slow
approach, with a surface front (possibly convectively-enhanced)
oozing southward across portions of northern and central Oklahoma
throughout the morning.

Showers and storms may be ongoing in pockets of the forecast area
for much of the day, evening and night, though some folks may see
dry intervals during this time. Overall coverage may tend to
increase by Wednesday evening, as the primary upper trough begins
to move into the lee of the Rockies.

The risk for heavy rainfall and flooding looks to escalate as we
roll on into Wednesday evening and night. Several key indicators,
including well above-normal (record-setting) preciptable water
magnitudes for mid-October, potential for widespread convection
and ascent atop a stalled/slow-moving surface boundary, all point
to the potential for a corridor of locally significant flooding
potential, though exactly where remains uncertain. At present,
Interstate 44 serves as a good centerline for greatest heavy
rainfall risk into Thursday.

Some limited strong-severe thunderstorm potential is also likely,
primarily on Wednesday afternoon and evening, and along and south
of the aforementioned surface boundary. Damaging wind gusts and
hail look to be the main hazards, though some (low) risk for a
tornado or two may materialize with deeper updrafts anchored
in/near the frontal zone.

We strongly recommend that you continue to check back with us as we
go throughout the early portions of the week, as subtle differences
in the strength/timing/position of both large and small scale
features may yield big changes to impacts for your local area!

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

The passage of a rather notable fall front is beginning to focus on
Thursday, as the midweek system begins to accelerate to the
northeast across the Plains. Rain and embedded thunder/lightning
potential may continue through much of the day on Thursday, slowly
abating from north-to-south after nightfall. It is likely that
our current forecast highs on Thursday continue to tumble (esp.
across the northern one-half of Oklahoma) as a more refined
frontal timing, and degree of post-frontal rain and clouds, comes
into clearer view.

Things turn drier and begin to feel more "classically fall" by
Friday into the weekend, with daytime temperatures in the 60s
becoming more probable.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions will continue through most of the period. MVFR
ceilings are expected to move into southeastern Oklahoma between
09-12Z Tuesday morning. Otherwise, gusty south-southwesterly winds
will prevail through Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  73  89  72 /   0   0  20  40
Hobart OK         90  72  91  71 /   0   0  20  70
Wichita Falls TX  91  73  92  74 /   0   0  10  30
Gage OK           92  70  89  65 /  10  10  40  60
Ponca City OK     90  72  90  69 /   0   0  20  70
Durant OK         89  73  90  74 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...13