391
FXUS64 KOUN 011824
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
124 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 122 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

 - Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
   evening.

 - Warmest day expected to be Wednesday with highs back in the 80s
   to mid 90s.

 - Cold fronts expected to move through on Tuesday, Wednesday
   night, and Friday.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

A 40-knot mid-level shortwave trough is currently diving
southeastward across Kansas. Synoptic-scale ascent from the trough
and convergence along the attendant surface boundary will likely
result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across southern
Kansas into northern Oklahoma later this afternoon. These
thunderstorms may organize into mini-clusters as they move
southward into the evening hours across northern into perhaps
western Oklahoma.

Instability (~1000 to 1500 J/kg of CAPE) and shear (~30 to 35
knots effective bulk shear) is sufficient for strong to severe
thunderstorms with a threat for large hail and damaging wind
gusts. The greatest threat for severe weather will be through mid-
evening with the risk decreasing after sunset with generally only
remnant showers expected overnight.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

A slightly cooler air and drier mass will advance southward in
the wake of tonight`s system with northerly winds. This should
shift the appreciable rain chances farther to the south and east
with only a 10 to 20% chance across east central into southeast
Oklahoma on Tuesday. The most appreciable cold air advection will
be across the north and east. High temperatures Tuesday afternoon
will range from the low 80s across the east to near 90 deg F
across the southwest.

By Wednesday, southerly winds will return and a low-level thermal
ridge will expand to the north east ahead of the next cold front.
As a result, Wednesday will be a warm day with temperatures near
seasonal averages ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s deg F. The
aforementioned cold front will move through Wednesday night/early
Thursday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms as a shortwave
trough rotates around a longwave trough across the Great Lakes
region.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Again, main impacts from the front Thursday will be felt across
central and northern Oklahoma where temperatures will only rise into
the upper 70s for afternoon highs.

Another large upper trough dives southeast through the Great Lakes
region Thursday night into Friday. Meanwhile, associated surface
cold front will move south through the area bringing additional rain
chances Friday into Saturday. Rain chances continue into Sunday as
southerly return flow and associated warm air advection develops
in advance of shortwave moving through the Rockies. This will also
keep temperatures below normal as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

A narrow band of thicker cloud cover with mostly MVFR ceilings is
located almost exactly along the I-35 corridor this afternoon. The
general trend has been for this band to decay, and expect ceilings
to largely return to VFR around 19-20Z. Isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected to move southward out of
Kansas this evening and tonight into our northern and western
zones. Included PROB30s for this risk at multiple TAF sites. The
chance for fog development tomorrow seems a little lower than it
was this morning given light northerly winds, but with RH trending
toward 100%, included MVFR ceilings and fog in areas that have
seen that over the last week.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  80  62  85 /  20  10   0   0
Hobart OK         65  86  60  92 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  67  87  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           59  81  57  91 /  20   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     63  79  59  86 /  30  10   0  10
Durant OK         67  85  65  87 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04