243
FXUS64 KOUN 291743
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

 - Continued rain chances Friday into the holiday weekend, mainly
   across the western and southern portions of the area.

 - Cooler temperatures continue.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

With the center of a mid-level ridge positioned over far southern
New Mexico and far West Texas, Oklahoma and western north Texas will
remain in west to northwest flow aloft. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to form well to our west this
afternoon and evening.  Some of this activity should enter at least
the western third of Oklahoma during the overnight hours and into
Saturday morning.  Locally heavy rainfall may occur with some of the
storms.

Meanwhile, much of the area will remain mostly cloudy to
cloudy through the rest of the afternoon and evening.  Isolated
light showers or drizzle are possible with temperatures remaining
well below average for late August.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing early Saturday morning
across at least western Oklahoma and western north Texas.  Although
intensity and coverage is expected to decrease through the morning,
locally heavy downpours may occur with some of the storms. The
mid-level ridge to our west will flatten overnight Friday into
Saturday. Perhaps a better setup for storms will occur as a
shortwave trough approaches and moves across parts of western
Kansas and Nebraska Saturday afternoon and evening. This, along
with another late August front approaching northwestern Oklahoma,
should result in at least scattered showers and storms developing
closer to western Oklahoma during the late afternoon and evening.
Much better boundary layer instability is expected to remain to
our north and west during the afternoon and evening. Therefore,
the main impacts from thunderstorms will be the potential for
heavy rainfall. Most model guidance keeps better rain and storm
chances across western Oklahoma and western north Texas Saturday
evening into early Sunday morning.

It`s possible that either outflow boundaries and or a cold front
will push far enough south that rain and storm chances will be on
the low side (20-30%) Sunday afternoon and evening.  The upper level
ridge is also expected to build westward and amplify on Sunday.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

A larger shortwave drops south through the plains on Monday along
with associated surface front. This will keep rain chances in the
forecast on Monday, albeit low, mainly across eastern half of
Oklahoma. The front will also limit our warm up for early next week.
The front looks to clear the area Monday night with a mild and dry
period into the middle of next week. Models are showing a much
stronger cold front moving south through the Plains Wednesday,
bringing temperatures back down into the 70s for late in the week.

Otherwise, northwest flow and upslope flow behind the front will
bring rain chances back to portions of the area by the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

MVFR to LIFR ceilings across the area this morning. Ceilings
should improve some later this morning and afternoon. Reduced
visibilities (1-5 miles) will continue for a few hours this
morning. Another round of showers/storms is expected overnight
into Saturday morning with the highest chances in parts of western
OK and western north TX. Winds will generally be from the NE to SE
with a few locations shifting to the S later today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  77  68  80 /  10  40  50  40
Hobart OK         66  81  66  84 /  40  70  70  50
Wichita Falls TX  68  80  69  82 /  30  60  70  70
Gage OK           63  77  63  81 /  60  80  70  20
Ponca City OK     64  79  65  81 /  10  30  50  50
Durant OK         68  80  69  83 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25