145
FXUS64 KOUN 200711
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
211 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- Excessive heating returns to parts of our area today, with the
  most dangerous heating across southcentral Oklahoma.

- With only parts of northern OK getting a slight break from the
  excessive heating for today and this weekend, the heatwave
  generally continues through early next week.

- Isolated rain/storms are possible each day across parts of our
  area but are very limited in coverage and unorganized.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Dangerous heating will once again be our weather hazard for today.
The upper ridge "heat dome" centered over the U.S. Southwest will
continue building eastward over the Southern High Plains while a
weak mid-level shortwave rounding the ridge will continue pushing a
second reinforcing "summer" cool front across our area.  The front
currently stretched along the I-40 corridor is expected to make only
a slight push southward before stalling out across southern Oklahoma
by this afternoon through the overnight hours.  Our counties near &
south of the surface front could see the most dangerous heating for
this afternoon.  However increasing mid-level cloud cover could
forestall some of this dangerous afternoon heating should it linger
through the afternoon.  Satellite imagery showing a large cloud
shield lee of the Rockies over the Central High Plains upstream from
yet another weak shortwave.  With northwest flow aloft that
aforementioned dense cloud cover will continue spreading into
northwest Oklahoma through the morning and over our entire forecast
area by sunrise.  Latest RRRFS & HREF guidance has clear/sunny skies
across the northern one-third of Oklahoma by mid-afternoon with
broken sky conditions around the southern two-thirds of Oklahoma and
northern Texas.  As a result of the uncertainty with afternoon cloud
cover will trend "less hot" than NBM using the CONSShort for todays
MaxT. However will keep the current Extreme Heat Warning for this
afternoon across southcentral through southeastern Oklahoma with a
Heat Advisory across southwest Oklahoma and all of western north
Texas.  Did extend the Heat Advisory a couple rows of counties along
and north of I-40 in central Oklahoma which now includes the
entire OKC Metro for heat indices exceeding 105 degrees.

We also have low rain/storm POPs across northern Oklahoma early this
morning extending into central Oklahoma after daylight through the
rest of the morning.  Forecast soundings suggest steep mid to high
level moisture along with some elevated instability with vorticity
from as a mid-level shortwave coming down off the Central High
Plains inducing rain and/or isolated convection.  DCAPE values
support a potential for strong to damaging wind gusts mainly in far
northwest Oklahoma.  Should cloud cover scatter in southeast
Oklahoma late this afternoon and the front stalls then strong mixing
into a weak mid-level cap could initiate a few thunderstorms across
southeast Oklahoma.  Instability is on the weak side for any
organization and mainly pulse type convection but strong wind gusts
are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Our stalled cold front expected to lift as a warm front Friday and
stall out again somewhere north of I-40 bringing a return of
dangerous heating further northward as well.  We could see another
surface front at least partially come through our area on Saturday,
although more of a "back-door" cool front coming down through the
U.S. Midwest.  With widespread triple digits highs each day,
Saturdays cool front could slightly break the heatwave across
northcentral Oklahoma with double-digit (upper 90s) highs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Upper ridge remains in place across the western two-thirds of the
country with the high/heat dome across the Southwestern U.S. with
its eastern extend creeping into the Southern Plains.  Although
northcentral Oklahoma may see another slight break from the heatwave
on Sunday from the aforementioned backdoor cool front but returning
back on Monday with triple digit highs widespread.  A series of mid-
level disturbances rounding the ridge may move through on Tuesday
and Wednesday bringing rain/storm chances on both days.  Fire
weather conditions may return early next week across our west but
mainly driven by very dry and hot air over dry vegetation from the
persisting extreme drought.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Low/sporadic coverage of rain and storms remains the main aviation
impact as we head into Thursday. In general, "best" chances
(coverage) will shift southeastward from the early morning into
evening. While only added at KDUA for now, a few thunderstorms
yielding gusty-erratic winds are becoming increasingly likely near
the Red River during the afternoon hours.

Otherwise, a reinforced front continues to sink southward across the
I-40 corridor of central Oklahoma offering a more sustained
northeast wind shift in its wake. For now, barring potential
convective influence, surface winds are forecast to begin backing
(at least subtly) by the late morning across the region.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 102  76 104  77 /  20  10  10  20
Hobart OK        108  77 108  77 /  20  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 108  79 108  79 /   0  20   0   0
Gage OK           99  72 104  72 /   0  10   0  10
Ponca City OK    100  73 101  73 /   0  20   0  20
Durant OK        108  78 107  78 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ018-019-023>039-044-045.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ040>043-046>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...09