480
FXUS64 KOUN 302319
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
619 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Periods of heavy rain are expected from this afternoon through
  at least Thursday morning. Flash flooding is possible in
  southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

- Chance of severe storms this afternoon and evening.

- Cooler temperatures heading into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Active weather expected through tonight with periods of rain, heavy
rain/flooding and severe weather concerns.

Scattered light to moderate rain showers continued to move across
parts of the area early this afternoon as the large area of rain
that moved across the region earlier today continues to lift NE and
E. Additional scattered shower/storm development has also begun
across portions of the fa.

The upper low centered near the central NM/AZ border is expected to
continue to move E and then NE across the southern Rockies into the
Panhandles area early Thursday. Models show a 500mb speed max
rotating around the low across west TX approaching the fa by late
this afternoon. CAMs show scattered showers/storms continuing to
develop in parts of central/south central OK/western north TX, and
shifting east later this afternoon and evening with a line of storms
developing in western parts of the fa as the speed max approaches
later this afternoon. This line of storms is then expected to move
east across the area this evening/overnight.

As the morning/early afternoon activity has continued to shift
across/out of the area, clouds have decreased across western
portions of the fa allowing for sfc heating of the moist airmass.
Enough instability (1500-2000 J/kg) and moderate wind shear is
expected for some strong to severe storms to be possible this
afternoon into this evening with damaging winds and hail possible.
Some increase in low-level shear is expected this evening. Enough of
which there is a low potential for a tornado or two. The severe
potential could continue overnight as the line moves east but may be
a bit harder with a weakening trend.

In addition to the severe potential, heavy rain that could lead to
flooding will be possible through tonight into Thursday. Models show
anomalously high PWATs with 2+" across portions of the fa. With
these PWATs, heavy rain is possible with 2-4+ inches possible,
especially in parts of south central OK where the heavy rain is most
likely. Have expanded the flood watch further north into central OK
which goes through Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Showers/storms will remain possible Thursday into Friday as the
upper low continues to move into and across the Plains, eventually
opening up into a wave although coverage is expected to be less and
the highest rain chances shifting to eastern/northern portions of
the fa. A cold front is also expected to move across the region
Thursday/Thursday night that could aid in shower/storm development
as well. Enough instability could develop for some strong to severe
storms to be possible again Thursday. Rain chances are expected to
shift southward Friday as the front continues to move south across
the region. Locally heavy rain/flooding will also be possible,
especially in those areas that receive heavy rain today/tonight.

Highs on Thursday are expected to be in the 70s and 80s, although
some uncertainty depending on rain/cloud cover, but cooler
temperatures are expected Friday as the cooler air moves into the
area behind the front. Highs on Friday are expected to range from
the upper 60s in northwest OK to the mid/upper 70s in southern OK
and western north TX. Cooler nights are also expected with lows in
the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Several near-to-slightly-cooler-than-normal days await us for the
upcoming weekend. Though the ridge will build back in over the
Southern Rockies, enough weakness in the ridge will exist for us to
feel the full extent of a prolonged period of northwest flow over
the Central Plains. That will keep northerly surface winds perhaps
as long as Monday evening in our area. Lingering rain chances are
expected mostly southeast of I-44 on Saturday, but the rest of the
weekend and into Monday looks much drier.

The one constant in 2026 has been that any cooldown can`t last long,
and sure enough, guidance and our gridded forecast are starting to
warm back up beginning next Tuesday. Fortunately, it looks like
we`ll be doing "October warm" instead of "July warm", with
temperatures rebounding into the 80s at most sites. For those in
search of more good news, model trends beyond the official long-term
period do suggest that we`ll be seeing more frontal intrusions in
the first half of October.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Mostly VFR and MVFR ceilings expected this TAF period. However,
some guidance is showing the possibility of IFR ceilings at some
sites, especially at KDUA, early Thursday. Put a mention of this
at KDUA but left out of other TAF sites for now but definitely
something to keep an eye on. Showers/storms will be possible
through Thursday across portions of the area at times. A line of
storms is expected to develop and move east across the area later
this evening into Thursday morning with scattered activity
possible ahead of the line and after the line moves through.
Strong variable winds will be possible with storms this
evening/overnight. Heavy rain that reduces visibility will also be
possible. Winds will generally be from the S and SE until a cold
front begins to move across portions of the area Thursday.
However, outflow boundary(ies) could also cause a brief shift in
wind.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  81  63  71 /  90  50  40  30
Hobart OK         68  84  62  73 /  60  10  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  69  85  65  77 /  80  10  20  30
Gage OK           61  78  54  68 /  30  20  40  10
Ponca City OK     66  78  60  70 /  90  90  60  10
Durant OK         71  80  68  81 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for OKZ023>032-037>048-
     050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...25