632
FXUS64 KOUN 140414
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1114 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 229 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

- Chance of showers and storms continue through this weekend.

- Temperatures rising above average through the middle of next
  week with heat indices near to above 100 degrees.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 707 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Will be updating the forecast to increase POPs tonight across the
area. Many of the synoptic and convective-allowing models suggest
that precipitation chances are higher than what the NBM has given
us with the potential of storms or a storm complex moving
southeast through the area. Although the location of the storms
varies some from model to model, the highest potential seems to be
in north central Oklahoma which seems reasonable given the surface
trough in the area and very high mid-June dewpoints advecting
upslope through western Kansas. 00Z dewpoints at DDC, GCK and GAG
are at least 95th percentile for mid-June.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Thunderstorm activity from this morning has diminished this
afternoon with the departing upper low. Ridging aloft is building in
the wake of the upper low across the southwest CONUS. Lingering
cloud cover from this morning`s convection has limited daytime
heating across portions of southwest Oklahoma and western north
Texas. Otherwise temperatures are expected to warm into the 80s to
90s, with the warmest temperatures across western Oklahoma and
western north Texas. Despite weak forcing aloft, there is decent
instability expected to be present this afternoon, where
temperatures warm, with a potential for a few afternoon storms to
pop up. A strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out, but chances
remain low.

Diurnal convection will develop this afternoon/evening along the
higher terrain across New Mexico/southeast Colorado and into the
Southern High Plains. Weak northwesterly flow aloft will bring the
storms east-southeast across West Texas as they develop into a
potential MCS this evening. Heading into the late evening hours
tonight and overnight, western Oklahoma and portions of western
north Texas may see some strong to severe storms from the decaying
MCS. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
hazards.

By the early morning hours of Saturday, additional moist warm air
advection showers and storms may develop across portions of western
and central Oklahoma. Elevated instability and a weak disturbance
along the ridge aloft will support strong winds and small hail. See
short term discussion below for additional Saturday morning storm
potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

These early morning storms are likely to persist through the
morning hours from north to south near and east of the I-35
corridor before weakening and decaying. Otherwise, warm summer-
like temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s across the area. A few
locations may even break triple digits across western Oklahoma and
into western north Texas with a warm downsloping airmass.
Increased low-level moisture with dewpoints in the lower to mid
70s will give way to heat index values nearing 100-105 degrees,
especially across western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Any
lingering cloud cover could inhibit diurnal convection, but weak
capping during the afternoon will likely be eroded with the hot
surface temperatures. If a storm were to develop during the
afternoon hours, a strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out
with large hail and damaging winds. Diurnal convection on the
higher terrain and north-northwesterly flow aloft will bring the
chance for storms during the late evening and overnight hours
Saturday night into Sunday morning across northern Oklahoma and
southward into central and southern Oklahoma. Storms will likely
grow upscale into an MCS by the time they reach the forecast area
with the main hazards being damaging winds and large hail.

Sunday is another rinse and repeat day with decaying morning
convection and a return of storms overnight with the north-
northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will be similar to
Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to 90s and heat index values
near 100- 105 degrees across portions of western north Texas and
into southern Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Rising mid-level heights and a strengthening low-level thermal
ridge are expected by early next week as the mid-level ridge
becomes elongated to the northeast into the Southern Plains. This
synoptic-scale pattern will result in a gradual rise in
temperatures through early next week with many locations forecast
to have heat indices in the 100s deg F. The chance for rain
should almost decrease during this period.

By late Tuesday into Wednesday, the mid-level ridge may become
suppressed to the southwest as a trough approaches the Plains.
This may allow a cold front to advance southward with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms by midweek.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

There is still the potential of showers and thunderstorms Saturday
morning, but the current trends and the latest models show this
potential somewhat less than previous forecasts. So while there is
some potential at most of the TAF sites, only KOKC and KOUN will
have PROB30 groups Saturday morning. MVFR ceilings look to be less
widespread than Friday morning.

Regarding the KDUA observation and TAF... the KDUA observation
has given LIFR observations, but the current sense is that this is
likely due to sensor issues and not weather conditions. A tower
camera from Durant, while not specifically at KDUA airport, shows
unrestricted visibility and no indications of low clouds in the
area. That said, although the observation may not be
representative of weather conditions at this time, we do expect
that there will be the potential of MVFR (and potentially IFR)
ceilings develop before sunrise at KDUA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  91  72  90 /  30  20  10  20
Hobart OK         71  97  73  97 /  30  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  73  96  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           66  93  70  95 /  30  10  20  10
Ponca City OK     69  89  69  88 /  30  20  30  20
Durant OK         73  90  74  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...26