404
FXUS64 KOUN 290349
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1049 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 937 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Widespread beneficial and potentially flooding rainfall
  expected beginning late Tuesday through the end of the week.

- Chance of severe storms Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through mid-week, before
  cooling Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

A shortwave ridge aloft will result in another day of above-
normal temperatures for late September with high temperatures
ranging from the mid 80s (north) to the mid 90s (south). Isolated,
diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon with a weakly capped and moist air mass. The chance for
a given location is low (10-20%), so most locations will remain
dry today. The highest (relative) chance will be across southern
Oklahoma near the Red River, where precipitable water values are
>1.70 inches. If thunderstorms do occur, the primary hazards are
cloud-to-ground lightning and strong wind gusts.

By tonight, a strengthening low-level jet associated with
increasing isentropic ascent/warm air advection may result in
isolated showers and thunderstorms across central Oklahoma.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

By Tuesday, a mid/upper-level trough will dig across the
southwestern U.S. and consolidate with the remnants of Hurricane
Polo, eventually forming a cutoff low. As the system closes off
and decelerates, the strongest synoptic-scale ascent and highest
rain chances will stay to our west on Tuesday. However, a lead
wave ahead of the main trough will result in a chance of showers
and thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma with the highest chance
across northwest Oklahoma.

As the upper-level low slowly lifts northeast toward Plains,
synoptic-scale ascent will shift to the east with the chance for
showers and thunderstorms increasing Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning across western Oklahoma and adjacent portions of western
north Texas. High confidence exists for a heavy rainfall event
bringing a risk of localized flash flooding from Wednesday through
Thursday. Total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized
higher amounts possible, are most likely to occur along and to
the southeast of I-44. Precipitable water values are forecast to
be above the daily maximum in these locations, indicating the
presence of anomalous moisture. To the northwest of I-44,
generally 1 to 2 inches of rainfall are forecast. The dry slot
should limit overall rain totals northwest of I-44 into western
and southwestern Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas. In
other words, there could be a sharp northwest to southeast
gradient for the heaviest rainfall. Should the dry slot prove
stronger than currently anticipated, rainfall totals along the
I-44 corridor would likely be reduced. Conversely, a weaker dry
slot could lead to higher rainfall amounts northwest of I-44.

In addition to heavy rainfall, there is also a risk for severe
weather. A dryline is forecast to be near the 100th meridian
Wednesday afternoon. Increasing instability in a highly sheared
environment ahead of the dryline will result in a chance for
strong to severe thunderstorms. However, convective development
along the dryline remains uncertain due to potential cloudiness
restricting surface heating. Depending on the amount of
instability, the risk of severe weather may advance eastward
Wednesday night into Thursday morning toward central Oklahoma in
tandem with the dry slot. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and
tornadoes are all potential hazards.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

As we go into the latter part of the week into the weekend, models
differ on how they handle the upper low, but either solution(GFS or
Euro) would keep precip chances in the forecast through the end of
the week and through the upcoming weekend. Still heavy rainfall
potential continues Thursday into Friday across south central and
southeast parts of the state.

With this continuation of rain, associated cloud cover and frontal
passage that will occur late in the week, temperatures will finally
begin to feel more like fall instead of summer. Most areas from
Thursday into at least Saturday will in the 70s and lower 80s. There
is a chance for a few locations, especially Friday as cooler surface
high pokes south into the area, to see highs only in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 937 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

All terminals should remain in a VFR category through the forecast
period. There is a 30% probability for rain showers and a few
thunderstorms moving into western and across northern Oklahoma
between 16-00Z while could impact terminals KCSM, KWWR, KPNC and
could be near terminal KSWO. Otherwise south surface winds
increase by 15Z around 10 kts sustained with gusts between 15-20
kts. Surface winds should back slightly southeast after 00Z at
5-10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  90  71  90  73 /  10  10  30  10
Hobart OK         91  72  90  72 /   0  10  20  50
Wichita Falls TX  95  72  94  73 /  20  20  10  20
Gage OK           87  68  83  67 /   0   0  50  80
Ponca City OK     85  66  85  70 /  10   0  50  20
Durant OK         91  70  94  72 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...77