462
FXUS64 KOUN 021735
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

 - Periods of showers and thunderstorms possible tonight through Monday.
   Storms may become severe, especially across western Oklahoma
   and into adjacent portions of western north Texas with damaging
   winds and flooding the primary hazards.

 - Gradual warming trend through the next week with triple digits
   returning by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

The main focus of the near term will be chances for showers and
thunderstorms tonight across western portions of the area.
Convection is expected to fire across the high plains this afternoon
and this evening as a shortwave crosses the Rockies and
southeasterly upslope flow maintains a fetch of moisture into this
area. Activity is then expected to move southeastward into the
panhandles and eventually western Oklahoma later tonight as the
shortwave tracks across the area. The best forcing associated with
the low-level jet will remain largely to our west overnight, so
expect storms to exhibit a weakening trend as they move into western
Oklahoma. Still, if storms are able to organize into an MCS at least
some potential for damaging wind gusts could be maintained into
western Oklahoma before more significant weakening occurs Sunday
morning.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Uncertainty increases on Sunday as the magnitude and location of
overnight convection will likely play a role in modulating the
environment for later in the day. The most likely scenario is that
any lingering convection will wane during the morning with re-
initiation possible during the afternoon along outflow boundaries
and/or in areas that see greater heating away from convective cloud
debris. Models also suggest potential for additional showers and
storms to move into the area from the north Sunday night as another
subtle shortwave tracks across Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Storms
in either scenario will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall
and isolated damaging wind gusts. Activity could linger into mid to
late morning Monday before diminishing by the afternoon.

With clouds and rain chances in the area, highs Sunday and Monday
will continue to be on the below-average side for early August,
generally in the 80s for most of the area, with some low 90s across
western north Texas.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

The remainder of the work week will feature a gradual warming trend
in temperatures and low precipitation chances. The upper ridge will
push eastward Tuesday and spin over New Mexico through much of the
week with north-northwest flow continuing to persist aloft.
Overnight convection from the higher terrain and Plains cannot be
ruled out this week but chances remain low at this time with
uncertainty in the exact timing of embedded shortwaves. The low-
level thermal ridge will strengthen this week with an increase in
850mb temperatures. Subsidence will give way to a return of triple
digit heat by the middle to end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Winds will remain light, gradually transitioning to a more southerly
/ southeasterly direction. A complex of storms is expected to come
down from the rockies after 06Z tonight, continuing into early
morning across parts of western and southwestern Oklahoma and
adjacent north Texas. Exact timing / area is still somewhat
uncertain. Some brief MVFR ceilings will be possible with this
activity.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  85  67  85 /  10  50  60  20
Hobart OK         69  88  67  88 /  30  60  50  10
Wichita Falls TX  70  91  69  91 /   0  40  50  20
Gage OK           65  83  62  86 /  60  60  40   0
Ponca City OK     65  83  64  85 /  10  40  60  10
Durant OK         69  88  68  86 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...14