935
FXUS64 KOUN 291822
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1222 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1216 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

-A strong cold front moves through today, bringing falling
temperatures and gusty north winds.

-Below normal temperatures persist into early next week, with a
chance for light wintry precipitation Monday.

- Temperatures moderate Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a cold front
bringing colder temperatures for the middle to end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1216 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The much anticipated cold front arrived this morning and has crossed
through the northwest 2/3rds of the area as of early afternoon.
Temperatures have been steady or fallen behind the front in most
areas, along with wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph from the northwest.
Expect winds to gradually decrease late this afternoon into this
evening as the pressure gradient relaxes and mixing diminishes.
Lows tonight will fall into the teens and 20s, with wind chills in
the single digits and teens by Sunday morning.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1216 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Cold temperatures will persist into Sunday as surface high pressure
builds into the area from the north, maintaining northerly winds and
cold advection over the region. Some sun is possible during the
morning but expect cloud cover to increase through the day ahead
of our next system, especially across central and northern
Oklahoma, which will also help keep temperatures from rising too
quickly.

We continue to watch the potential for wintry precipitation across
parts of the area Monday, but several limiting factors are likely to
keep impacts rather minimal. First, the surface high will slide
eastward Sunday night into Monday, which means we will begin to lose
our source of cold advection as winds veer to east and then
southeast. This combined with thick cloud cover should lead to
steady or slowly rising temperatures Sunday night into Monday.
Second, models continue to show the shortwave trough remaining
positively tilted and tracking along the OK/KS border, limiting
the degree of forcing over our area. That said, it does appear the
combination of warm advection and increasing low-level moisture
will be enough to produce very light precipitation over the area
Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Forecast soundings would
suggest the column will be cold enough for mostly snow across
northern Oklahoma, with the precipitation type transitioning to a
wintry mix across central Oklahoma, with mostly rain across
southern Oklahoma and western north TX. A dusting to an inch of
snow remains possible near the KS border, while farther south
amounts appear light enough and temperatures marginal enough to
preclude much in the way of ice accumulation. That said, it does
not take much ice to cause slick roads and bridges so we will
continue to closely monitor the potential for very light ice
accumulation on elevated surfaces Monday morning before
temperatures rise above freezing and precipitation transitions to
mostly rain.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 1216 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Sunny skies and moderating temperatures are expected for next
Tuesday, with highs returning to the 40s and 50s. Another cold
front is then forecast to move into the region Wednesday, with the
temperature forecast Wednesday highly dependent on the speed of
the front. Colder temperatures are expected Thursday, though
models begin to disagree on the magnitude this cold airmass, along
with any potential for precipitation in the wake of the front
Thursday into Friday as another trough digs across the western US.


Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A cold front continues to push across our area producing a northwest
wind shift behind the front with gusty winds at 30-40 kts and
sustained winds between 20-30 kts.  The cold front was pushing into
central Oklahoma at current time.  Most of our terminals are behind
the cold front and could remain in a MVFR category through 21Z.
Terminal KDUA is our lone terminals still ahead of the front as it
should arrive there around 21Z and could still remain in a MVFR
category through 23Z.  Gusty north winds will persist across all our
terminals after 00Z at least through 12Z as well as in a VFR
category through the remainder of our forecast period.  By 06Z a
northerly low-level jet could produce some low-level wind shear
conditions at 5 of our terminals near and east of the I-35
corridor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  23  36  30  40 /   0   0   0  20
Hobart OK         20  38  29  45 /   0  10   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  27  42  33  45 /   0   0  10  20
Gage OK           15  32  23  39 /   0  10   0  20
Ponca City OK     20  33  28  37 /   0   0   0  30
Durant OK         28  43  34  40 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>032-034-035.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68