346
FXUS64 KOUN 031758
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1158 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1153 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

  - Warm and dry conditions are expected throughout the upcoming
    week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1210 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

A multiday run of unseasonable mid-fall warmth begins in earnest
today across Oklahoma and north Texas. No concern for freezing
conditions early this morning, with a steady to locally gusty
southerly breeze helping to keep temperatures from "bottoming out"
over the coming hours (i.e., sunrise lows in the 40s).

A weak (and dry) surface front will push southeast across portions
of northern Oklahoma on Monday morning, settling towards the I-40
corridor by the afternoon. Coolest, yet still unseasonably warm
(upper-60s), afternoon highs will be found north of the boundary.
Across southwestern Oklahoma & north Texas, where influence from
an expanding subtropical ridge will be more apparent, peak
temperatures are likely to climb into the low-80s.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1210 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Persistent warm and dry surface weather will continue into the
midweek. By and large, upper-level ridging looks to remain the main
synoptic feature during the period. This will allow for afternoon
highs to run +10-20 degrees (70s to low-80s) compared to early
November normals.

Gusty south-southwesterly winds, with gusts up to 30-40 mph, will be
possible on Tuesday afternoon, as a surface pressure gradient
sharpens in response to an emerging lee cyclone. A passing surface
front is possible on Wednesday, as a stronger upper low rotates
across the Great Lakes vicinity. For now, this does not look to
offer any appreciable precipitation chance or significant pattern
change.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1210 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Warm conditions will continue into the late week, with some (low)
potential for a pattern shift into next weekend. The warmest day of
the upcoming week is currently advertised on Thursday, with
potential for temperatures near 90-degrees across the Red River
Valley. The latest National Blend of Models (NBM) output (i.e., our
forecast) runs towards the upper end of most guidance, with only a
<10% chance for 90s when comparing over all deterministic and
ensemble output.

There are early indications our "heat wave" will break down by
Friday into next weekend as a more robust front/system impacts the
region.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

A weak cold front will stall across northern Oklahoma this
afternoon and evening. Other than than a northeast wind at WWR,
PNC, and SWO, a southerly wind will prevail. Low-level wind shear
will develop at most sites tonight as a strong jet develops.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with little to no cloud
cover.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  51  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         78  49  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  80  49  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           68  47  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     69  51  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         77  49  77  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...06