254
FXUS64 KOUN 312349
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
649 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

 - Chance for strong thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.

 - Warmer Monday with highs back in the 80s to near 90.

 - Cold fronts expected to move through on Tuesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Locations near and ahead of a diffuse, remnant boundary located
near I-44 from this morning`s convection have been the focus for
the redevelopment of showers this afternoon. A moist air mass
(characterized by precipitable water values >1.8" and dew points
in the low 70s deg F) and forecast soundings with very
little/minimal capping indicate this activity should continue this
afternoon into the early evening. Severe weather is not expected
with the hazards being heavy rainfall and cloud-to-ground
lightning.

With the loss of daytime heating, convective coverage should
decrease by mid evening. However, some showers may persist
overnight, especially across southeast Oklahoma where precipitable
water values will remain high and there is some signs of
isentropic ascent.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Warmer weather is expected on Monday with more insolation
expected. High temperatures Monday afternoon are expected to range
from the mid 80s to near 90 deg F, which is closer to average
than we`ve been in recent days.

An ~40-knot mid-level shortwave trough, embedded in the northwest
flow, is forecast to dig into the Southern Plains by Monday
afternoon in tandem with an advancing surface trough/cold front.
Synoptic-scale ascent from the trough and surface coverage from
the trough may result in scattered showers and thunderstorms
across northwest into western Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon.

The environment ahead of the boundary is progged to have ~1000 to
1500 J/kg to instability and ~30 knots of effective bulk shear,
which is sufficient for strong to low-end severe thunderstorms
with a threat for hail and wind. The greatest threat would be
through mid-evening with the risk decreasing after sunset.

There will be a stronger push with the cold front Monday night
into Tuesday, which will bring slightly cooler air mass southward
for Tuesday afternoon. This should shift the appreciable rain
chances farther to the south and east.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Models continue to show a large upper low swinging through the upper
midwest and Great Lakes region Wednesday into Thursday. As this
occurs another, slightly stronger cold front will push south through
the Plains and through the area Wednesday night. This front will
bring another chance of rain to much of the area during this time
frame. Only a slight cool down is expected for Thursday as after
highs in the 80s Wednesday, Thursday will see much of Oklahoma back
down in the 70s. A few 80s will remain across the south.
Temperatures will then warm back into the 80s for the end of the
week into the following weekend. Some. low rain chances may continue
late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Our terminals should remain in a VFR category through much of the
forecast period. Have TEMPOs in place for TSRA at terminals KPNC
& KDUA for the next 3-4 hours due to convection in the area being
driven by outflow boundaries although also diurnally-driven and
may dissipate soon after sundown. Although confidence is low, also
have TEMPOs for patchy fog between 11-14Z at some of our
terminals which could reduce visibilities 2-3 miles or high-end
IFR to low-end MVFR categories. Also confidence is low but at
least a 30% probability for TSRA returning between 17-23Z at some
of our terminals although ceilings may be higher based in the VFR
category. Surface winds should go light & variable tonight
increasing out of the north at 10 kts by 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  84  65  78 /  10  10  30   0
Hobart OK         65  89  64  85 /   0  20  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  68  88  66  87 /  10  10  10   0
Gage OK           61  86  59  80 /   0  20  10   0
Ponca City OK     64  83  61  79 /  30  30  30   0
Durant OK         69  85  67  85 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...68