834
FXUS64 KOUN 251839
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
139 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 138 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Chances for showers and storms focused across western OK and
  western north TX today, expanding east into the weekend.

- More chances for rain next Tuesday/Wednesday with a cold front.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through early next week,
  but not as hot as recent weeks.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

A line of showers is currently moving across the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandle. This line is expected to continue moving into portions
of western Oklahoma into the afternoon. As this line moves into
western Oklahoma this afternoon, storm coverage should increase
from north to south. Instability and shear will be sufficient for
a few stronger wind gusts this afternoon and evening. Precipitable
water values will continue to be on the higher side (1.75-2
inches), so efficient rainfall may lead to some flooding concerns.
A few locations across western Oklahoma have already received
over 2 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours, so additional
heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns in these areas.

Overall coverage and intensity should decrease after sunset this
evening, until the low-level jet (LLJ) increases. Showers and
thunderstorms, attendant to the strengthening LLJ, are expected to
develop around midnight across the western third of the area.

Bunker

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

The aforementioned showers and storms will likely linger into the
morning, especially across north central Oklahoma. Lightning and
brief periods of heavy rainfall will be possible with any activity
that continues through Saturday morning.

A shortwave mid-level trough will continue to lift northward
through the day Saturday, so additional thunderstorms will be
possible Saturday afternoon through the evening. Sufficient
instability and deep-layer shear will support a few stronger
storms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Any showers and storms Saturday evening into the overnight hours,
will shift to the east by Sunday morning. Mid-level heights
increase by the afternoon, so may see afternoon highs get a few
degrees warmer than days preceding.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

As we go into next week our attention turns to the west and
southwest. Large trough takes shape across the western CONUS Monday.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Polo off the west coast of Mexico lifts north
early in the week. Its remnant moisture looks to phase with the
trough as we into Tuesday. Moisture plume ahead of these features
will bring increasing rain chances to the area by Tuesday as well.

Uncertainty increases beyond this point as models diverge with
regards to timing. Although both the GFS and the Euro show a closed
low, the Euro is farther south and becomes a bit more cut off from
the main flow and is therefore slower with its eastward progress
through the week. The Euro`s trough and the remnants of Polo also
rotate around each other over Arizona and New Mexico before ejecting
out by Friday. Meanwhile, the GFS is more progressive and has the
system coming through late Wednesday and Wednesday night with a more
spring-time severe weather look. Either way looks to bring the best
chance of widespread beneficial rainfall that we have seen in quite
some time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

VFR/MVFR ceilings expected this TAF period. Showers and storms are
possible into early Saturday, with the highest chances across
parts of western and northern OK. Gusty winds could be possible
with a few of the storms this afternoon/evening. Winds will
generally be from the S and SE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  90  70  91 /  20  30  40  10
Hobart OK         69  90  68  92 /  60  20  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  71  96  70  98 /  20  20  20  10
Gage OK           64  88  63  87 /  50  20  30   0
Ponca City OK     66  85  66  85 /  50  70  80  20
Durant OK         68  95  69  97 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25