311
FXUS64 KOUN 120548
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Temperatures rebound today above normal with dry conditions

- Chance of showers and severe thunderstorms on Saturday,
  especially across northern Oklahoma

- Dangerous heating returning across parts of our area on Saturday
  through Monday before rain chances return Tuesday

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Unseasonably hot temperatures make a return today as our upper
trough shifts eastward replaced by a trailing ridge.  A deepening
surface low lee of the Southern Rockies will increase southerly low-
level flow and moisture transport increasing dew points across
southeast into central Oklahoma making it feel muggy again. Triple
digit temperatures will return up to the Red River in western north
Texas with triple digit heat indices of 100 to near 105 degrees
returning to southern Oklahoma.  Southeast Oklahoma could see some
afternoon CU with clear sunny skies across the rest of our forecast
area.  We may see some thin high clouds increase tonight coming down
over the Central High Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Saturday will see a return of thunderstorm activity with a severe
risk along with dangerous heat headlines returning across parts of
our forecast area.  As far as Saturdays potential storms, an
embedded short-wave transversing through the upper jet flow over the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Region will be pushing a cold front across
the Central Plains although model consensus is keeping the front
north of the Oklahoma/Kansas state line before lifting and stalling
out across northern Kansas. Moisture ascension ahead of the frontal
boundary into destabilizing air may be sufficient to rain/storms
especially storms into the afternoon hours as capping erodes. Will
have 30% storm POPs across northern into east-central Oklahoma from
sunrise into the afternoon with the OKC Metro on the far western
edge with 20% POPs. Any organized severe storm risks from this
system are expected to stay well north of our forecast area in the
Central Plains & Midwest where the the strong shear will be. However
DCAPE values suggest some of these afternoon storms could produce
strong to severe damaging wind gusts as a Marginal risk for severe
storms will be possible across northern Oklahoma.  By Saturday
evening the 20-30% storm POPs will shift north of I-40 into the
overnight hours. Although potential afternoon storms across
northcentral Oklahoma should keep temperatures there in double-
digits, the rest of our area will likely see a more widespread
return of triple digit highs between 100-106 degrees with heat
indices exceeding 105 degrees up to 109 degrees across the southern
half of our forecast area while slightly drier air across northwest
Oklahoma should keep their heat indices more negligible. As a result
will have a widespread Heat Advisory Saturday afternoon along and
south of I-40 to the Red River including all of our western north
Texas counties.

The upper high closes over our area on Sunday with increasing
pressure heights as ridging builds.  This will continue our weekend
heatwave especially into northcentral Oklahoma with no storm
activity expected.  Will likely see another widespread Heat Advisory
on Sunday and will likely extend further north of I-40 into portions
of northern Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

The subtropical ridge will continue to move eastward toward the
southeast United States for next week. The Southern Plains will be
on the western periphery of the ridge with a strong low-level
thermal ridge remaining in place. As a result, above-normal
temperatures are likely with high temperatures in the 90s to mid
100s deg F. Probabilistic guidance indicates little temperature
spread through Wednesday, which indicates high confidence of
above-normal temperatures (e.g., the 10th percentile is above-
normal).

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible on Monday afternoon
with a strengthening surface pressure gradient resulting in
breezy southerly winds.

Northern and western Oklahoma will be close enough to south to
southwest flow aloft (on the periphery of the ridge), where there
will be occasional chances of showers and thunderstorms from
remnant convection or nearby frontal boundaries. Currently, the
highest chance of this occurring is around midweek (Tuesday and
Wednesday).

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A storm complex currently poised to enter northern Kansas may
reach north-central Oklahoma later this morning (after 12Z), and
PROB30`s with MVFR conditions have been added to KPNC/KSWO for
this potential. Should this solution verify, the resulting storm
outflow is anticipated to push towards KWWR to KOKC to perhaps
KDUA. Strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible by
late afternoon near the boundary and again late evening near the
effective cold front across northern Oklahoma. Large hail up to
the size of golf-balls and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph appear
possible with the strongest storms (which are prog`d over northern
Oklahoma by evening). There is considerable uncertainty on where
the outflow boundary is positioned by afternoon, and therefore
placement of storms by late-afternoon.

Thompson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  98  74  99  74 /  20  10   0   0
Hobart OK        103  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 104  76 103  75 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          101  71 101  73 /  10  40   0   0
Ponca City OK     94  70  97  72 /  40  30  20   0
Durant OK        102  75 101  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ021>025-027>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01