743
FXUS64 KOUN 302309
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
609 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- Very hot conditions continue through Friday with less hot
  conditions for the upcoming weekend.

- There is chance of showers and thunderstorms late tonight into
  Friday with a front.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The heatwave continues this afternoon with highs expected to climb
into the triple digits across most of the fa. Even higher heat index
values are also expected this afternoon with values ranging from 105
to 109 across much of the area. However, some locations could climb
as high as 110 or higher, especially in SE parts of the fa. Will
continue with current heat advisory and extreme heat warning which
is in effect until 9 pm this evening. Another warm night is expected
tonight with lows in the mid 70s to low 80s.

As for rain, showers/storms that develop west of the fa may approach
far NW OK late this evening but the better chance for showers/storms
will begin late tonight/early Friday across parts of northern OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

A brief pattern shift is expected late this week into the weekend
with the high pressure currently centered over NM shifting west
today into Friday as a shortwave moves SE across the
northern/central Plains into the Midwest. This shortwave is expected
to cause a front to move south into and across at least parts of the
area Friday.

Showers/storms will be possible with the front as it moves
southward. However, with the better synoptic forcing expected to
remain N and NE of the area, chances for rain are still low (20-40%)
with convergence along the boundary and heating as sources for lift.
Storms Friday afternoon/evening could produce gusty winds with
decent DCAPE values expected to develop Friday afternoon. The rain
chances are expected to end Friday evening/night.

As for the heat, it looks like there will be one more day on Friday
with the very hot temperatures, at least in parts of the fa. Models
show that the "cooler" air may lag behind the front/wind shift so
temperatures are still expected to climb into the upper 90s to low
100s across the area. There is some uncertainty to the temperature
forecast especially in northern OK due to the timing of the front
and extent of cloud cover/rain on Friday. Ahead of the front,
temperatures will definitely be hot with low-level thermal ridge or
"pre-frontal torch" expected to develop. Heat indices will also
continue to be 105+, with the most likely area for this to occur
south of I-40. A heat advisory is in effect for areas generally
along and south of I-40 for Friday afternoon/evening. However, the
heat advisory may need to be expanded further north if the impacts
or timing from the uncertainties mentioned earlier are not realized
in the current forecast.

The "cooler" air does eventually move into the region leading to not
as hot conditions over the weekend. Lows Friday night are expected
to range from the upper 60s to mid 70s across the area with even
cooler (mid 60s to low 70s) Saturday night. Highs on Saturday will
be around normal for the first of August with temperatures in the
upper 80s/low 90s in north central OK to the upper 90s in western
north TX.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The cooler/less hot weather will continue into Sunday with north
to northeast winds and temperatures similar to Saturday.

A warming trend begins on Monday with a strengthening ridge aloft
and associated thermal ridge expanding eastward toward the
Southern Plains. Hot, above-normal temperatures are likely to
return by the middle part of next week with dry conditions.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions to continue.

Light south to southeast winds expected overnight with a chance
for a shower or storm to impact sites across northern Oklahoma and
have maintained a PROB30 at WWR/PNC/SWO. These chances could
linger into the morning hours of Friday at PNC and SWO. Winds will
veer to the southwest Friday morning in advance of a cold front
that will make its way south toward the I-40 corridor by late
tomorrow afternoon. Some gusts to near 20kts possible just ahead
and behind the front. There is a chance of afternoon
showers/storms in the I-40 corridor Friday afternoon, but
confidence in the occurrence and location preclude the mention in
the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77 100  72  92 /  10  20  20   0
Hobart OK         78 102  72  95 /  10  20  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  78 104  75  98 /   0  10  30   0
Gage OK           73  98  67  93 /  30  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     76  98  70  90 /  40  30  10   0
Durant OK         79 102  77  95 /   0  10  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>042-044>047-
     050-051.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ022>048-
     050>052.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ043-048-
     052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30