790
FXUS64 KOUN 241834
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1234 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Drizzle and patchy fog could linger over northern and east-
  central Oklahoma into this afternoon, with patchy fog possible
  again tonight.

- Turning cooler mid-week with low temperatures near the freezing
  mark.

- Colder weather possible next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Lowered high temperatures for northern into east-central Oklahoma
with persistent cloud-cover, showers, drizzle, and patchy fog
slowly expected to shift eastward throughout the day. Increased
POPs a bit to account for wrap-around showers into the afternoon.

Thompson

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1231 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

The occluding frontal system will exit our CWA this evening with
persistent cloudiness gradually shifting eastward. Drizzle, light
rain, and patchy fog remain possible this afternoon over north-
central into east-central Oklahoma. Stratus is expected to linger
over north-central and east-central Oklahoma tonight, with patchy
fog redevelopment possible tonight into tomorrow morning. Overnight
low temperatures are forecast to range from the mid/upper-30`s
over northwest and western Oklahoma to low 50`s over east-central
and southeastern Oklahoma.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1231 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Patchy fog is possible on Tuesday morning over parts of east-central
and southeastern Oklahoma. Some localized dense fog could also be
seen. However, this area of fog appears to be rather transient as it
moves southward during the pre-dawn hours. Other than the morning
fog, mostly sunny skies are anticipated tomorrow.

A developing shortwave, which is currently over Idaho and Montana,
deepens upon reaching the north-central plains tomorrow before
turning towards the Great Lakes region. This upper-level system will
push a decent cold front into Oklahoma and northwest winds will
increase to 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible behind
the front. This surge of post-frontal winds reaches central and
southwestern Oklahoma by late morning. While a few of the models
suggest falling temperatures with FROPA in the morning hours, most
CAMS suggest this will be relatively short-lived and afternoon
temperatures will range from the mid-50`s to mid-60`s.

As a 1030MB surface high settles in behind the cold front, will see
cold temperatures by Wednesday morning with highs remaining in the
mid-/upper-40`s over northern and parts of east-central Oklahoma.
Fortunately, winds will be light and veering with the passage of the
surface high. Low temperatures will be in the 20`s and 30`s both
Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1205 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Surface ridge remains in place through the Plains for Thanksgiving
day with some modification of the airmass allowing temperatures to
rebound into the 50s and lower 60s by Thursday afternoon.

Surface ridge shifts east by Friday with breezy south winds
developing. This will draw gulf moisture quickly northward and with
strong waa expected by late Friday and Friday night showers and even
a few thunderstorms appear possible. The precip will likely continue
through the weekend as this waa pattern remains in place ahead of a
large upper low dropping south across the western CONUS. Models were
similar last night with timing of very cold air moving south through
the area on Saturday, however the latest GFS is not bringing the
front through until next Monday and not as strong. In addition the
models are trending to a more closed, retrograding upper low off
the California coast. This is all lowing overall confidence in the
extended part of the forecast period, but do currently do have a
mention of wintry precip by Sunday across northwest Oklahoma.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

IFR to VFR ceilings this afternoon with clouds gradually clearing
from west to east across parts of the area. Some locations,
especially in northern OK could see clearer skies but then more
low clouds moving in with the wrap-around clouds later this
afternoon and tonight. Lowered visibility from BR will also
gradually improve from west to east across parts of the area
although lowered visibility will be possible again overnight into
Tuesday morning in some locations. Patchy drizzle and scattered
rain showers are expected to continue through the afternoon in
parts of northern and central OK. Rain chances are expected to end
late this afternoon/early evening. Winds are expected to shift
towards the W or WNW this afternoon/evening as a Pacific cold
front moves across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  47  60  34  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         40  62  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  45  66  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           36  55  27  50 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     47  58  29  48 /  20   0   0   0
Durant OK         50  63  39  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25