493
FXUS64 KOUN 150534
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

  - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected
through Friday.

  - Showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday into
    Saturday with the next cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern
Plains today, which will result in another hot day of mid to upper
80s by the afternoon. Lack of any large scale ascent will lead to
a dry day across the entire area. Winds will generally remain out
of the south and with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, should
be a nice day if have to be outside.

Bunker

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Lower mid-level heights are expected on Thursday as a mid-level
trough out west helps to push the aforementioned ridge to the
east. This should keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler than
Wednesday with dry conditions expected.

Large scale ascent will arrive Friday afternoon as the
aforementioned trough moves in from the west. A cold front will
accompany this system, which will help drive precipitation chances
across the area into Saturday morning. Models are coming into
better agreement with the slower evolution of the overall system.
The implications that this will have on our area will be more
potential widespread rain chances, but also a non zero chance at
severe weather. Sufficient instability and deep-layer shear will
be in place for some severe weather potential with the strongest
storms that develop Friday afternoon through the overnight hours.
Primary hazards would be large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Showers and thunderstorm chances should diminish from west to
east Saturday as wave continues to move through the Plains. A
reinforcing cold front is expected to move in late Saturday night
into Sunday which will keep Sunday afternoon highs in the mid 70s.

Warmer temperatures will return on Monday as the surface high
shifts to the east and lee troughing along the Rockies promotes
warm air advection. This return flow is expected to remain
relatively dry, so we will keep an eye out for fire weather
concerns across the area, especially with 15-25 mph sustained wind
gusts expected by the afternoon.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1004 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR conditions this TAF period. Winds will generally be from the
SE for most sites this TAF period except for KWWR where winds will
shift to the south Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  59  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         86  57  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  86  57  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           82  57  81  60 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     86  59  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         86  58  86  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...25