685
FXUS64 KOUN 272321
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
621 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 618 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

 - Additional rounds of showers and storms late tonight into
   Thursday.

 - A few strong to severe thunderstorms across southern Oklahoma
   and western north Texas Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Most of the morning convection has shifted into eastern Oklahoma as
of early afternoon.  A trailing MCV will skirt the Oklahoma/Kansas
border through the late afternoon, but is generally becoming less
defined.  This may help in the development of a few showers and
storms across mainly far northern Oklahoma.

Elsewhere, hotter temperatures are expected across parts of
southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon.  A few
CAMs suggest a few storms may form during peak heating.  If storms
develop, a few strong wind gusts are possible, but overall shear
and instability will remain weak. With limited coverage, this
precipitation will dissipate during the early evening.

Another round of convection is expected to develop late this
afternoon and evening, with the initial development across
eastern Colorado and western Kansas. A moderate low level jet will
form during the evening with the nose of the jet over parts of
southern/central Kansas. This, and a low amplitude shortwave
trough, should keep the bulk of the precipitation across Kansas.
However, a deep enough outflow boundary impinging on the low level
jet (which will continue to veer overnight) will likely bring at
least scattered showers and storms into northern Oklahoma during
the late evening and overnight hours. Locally heavy rainfall is
certainly possible, especially across north central Oklahoma. This
area has missed out on the heavier rainfall this week, so we will
not issue a Flash Flood Watch at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Several CAMs suggest an MCS over Kansas will begin to or will
already be impacting parts of northern Oklahoma by sunrise Thursday.
Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be the main impacts along with
lightning.  At this time we will continue with rather high PoPs for
Thursday morning, especially across north central and central
Oklahoma. Although the majority of the morning rain may dissipate or
be confined to eastern Oklahoma by early afternoon, an outflow
boundary and cold front will support additional development during
the mid to late afternoon. Afternoon highs will be very tricky
Thursday afternoon, especially if the outflow boundary surges well
south into parts of southern Oklahoma by late morning/early
afternoon. Thunderstorms that form Thursday afternoon/evening will
have the potential to produce damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and
some hail. Depending on the movement of the front/outflow, most of
the storms should be confined to far southern Oklahoma/northern
Texas by sunset ( ~ 8 pm).

Showers and thunderstorms may linger across mainly south central and
southeastern Oklahoma Friday morning near a frontal boundary.
Although the front is not expected to bring a noticeable change in
airmass, northeast and east winds Friday into Friday evening should
support better storm chances to our west.  Some of these storms may
move into western Oklahoma and northern Texas during the late
evening and overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

The generally weak northwesterly upper flow regime looks to
remain as we head into the upcoming Labor Day Holiday Weekend.
While slowly moderating during this period, temperatures will
likely remain below average (80s) throughout the weekend. We will
maintain low-medium (20-40%) chances for overnight rain and
thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday night across western Oklahoma
and western-north Texas. While gusty wind potential may exist
with thunderstorms, no obvious severe weather/heavy rain potential
is evident for our area at this update.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Stratus deck continues to hold tight along and northeast of a line
from Norman to Alva. With the loss of daylight, the west-to-east
erosion of this deck is expected to stop, and predominantly MVFR
(with some IFR) conditions will continue into tonight in north
central and central Oklahoma. An area of showers and storms will
move into northern Oklahoma later tonight and move southeast
during the morning, with a wind shift from southerly to
northeasterly behind it. This front will eventually begin to move
southward during the afternoon hours, with MVFR conditions
continuing north of the front and another chance for storms in the
evening as the front approaches the Red River.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  88  66  74 /  20  60  50  10
Hobart OK         71  97  66  83 /  10  20  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  73  99  69  83 /  10  10  50  20
Gage OK           67  82  61  79 /  40  20  20   0
Ponca City OK     64  75  62  76 /  80  90  30  10
Durant OK         70  95  70  81 /  10  50  80  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...04