955
FXUS64 KOUN 161110
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
610 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 554 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Precipitation chances this afternoon into Monday near and north
  of a cold front.

- Slightly cooler temperatures expected today and tomorrow north,
  but heat persists in the south.

- Dangerous heat continues through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Initial cold front has moved into northwest Oklahoma, but the
forward progress will slow down through the day. Temperatures will
still be warm behind the front, but at least nudge them down below
heat advisory criteria in the northwest.

The convection early this morning remains well northwest of the
forecast area. Scattered storms are expected to develop near and
north of the front this afternoon, and continue into the evening.
The spread between the temperature and dewpoint will be quite high
again today, forecast soundings show an inverted-V sounding and
forecast downdraft CAPE is progged to be quite high (seeing some
1500 J/kg in some of the HRRR forecast soundings). Therefore
thunderstorms that do become strong will have the potential of
producing isolated areas of severe/damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The cold front will settle a little farther south tonight and
Monday. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid-upper 90s across
northern Oklahoma, but it will still be hot in areas south of the
cold front. A Heat Advisory will be needed Monday across the
south, but the specific geography will depend on where the front
will be on Monday afternoon, so we will wait to issue the advisory
until we have more clarity on that.

Scattered storms are expected to redevelop near and north of the
front again on Monday afternoon. Again strong to potentially
severe storms producing strong winds will be possible with these
storms in the afternoon and evening.

The reprieve from the very hot conditions in the north with this
front will be short-lived as this airmass washes out/retreats and
hot temperatures are expected areawide again on Tuesday.

Dry south-southwest winds will bring very low relative humidity
(less than 20%) across the western half of the area. This will
create a widespread area of elevated fire weather conditions,
although fortunately the winds are not currently expected to be
strong enough to nudge into near-critical levels.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The operational runs of the medium-range models are still
suggesting a shift in the pattern with the upper ridge amplifying
in the west and troughing developing from the Great Lakes toward
the Mid-Mississippi Valley bringing northwest flow aloft over the
Plains. With this shift, the operational models bring a cold
front into the area Wednesday night. The main surge of the cooler
airmass pushes into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, so there is still
a question how much cooler the air would be for us. NBM is still
not fully capturing the potential of this cold front has keeps hot
temperatures in most areas late into the week. If there continues
to be consistency in the forecast pattern shift, forecast
temperatures would likely be not-as-hot as the current forecast.
But the ECWMF keeps 594-595 dm 500 mb heights over the forecast
area and then pushes the ridge toward the southern Plains by
Saturday, so this pattern may not bring significant cooling or any
cooling could again be short-lived. We`ll continue to watch the
trends over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

All terminals expected to remain in a VFR category at least
through 22Z. There is a 30% probability for thunderstorm activity
which could impact all of our terminals generally near to north of
the I-40 corridor between 22-06Z at terminals KOKC & KOUN although
probabilities could linger to the end of the forecast period at
KSWO, KPNC, KCSM, and KWWR. Not expecting very low ceilings with
this convection but mainly brief reduced visibilities in rain as
well as strong variable winds should any storms move over one of
these terminals. A weak cold front stretched across northwestern
OK will gradually push into central Oklahoma before stalling out
with a northerly wind shift behind this boundary. Wind speeds
fairly weak behind the front up to 10 kts and only expecting gusts
up to 15 kts through 18Z. However should the aforementioned
convection develop outflow boundaries could start producing
variable mesoscale gusty winds across the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 103  75  99  74 /  20  20  30  20
Hobart OK        104  74 103  74 /  20  20  20  10
Wichita Falls TX 104  77 106  77 /  10   0  10  10
Gage OK           96  68  96  70 /  10  40  30  20
Ponca City OK     99  73  93  72 /  10  40  30  10
Durant OK        104  78 106  77 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013-
     017>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ085-086-089-090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68